Author
@dampedspring dampedspring
grade Ax.com/dampedspring ↗
Institutional macro PM dissecting Fed plumbing, bubble regimes, and cross-asset positioning with disclosed trades
Publishes original top-down macro frameworks (Fed/Treasury m
trader score
-1.50
hit rate
50%
mean α
-1.29%
signals 14d
70
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -1.29% mean alpha, trader score -1.50. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.4% since posting (mean over 20 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | NBIS | @dampedspring | -0.45 | Questions IREN financing terms and notes NBIS remains weak after a convertible deal. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @dampedspring | +0.00 | Questions IREN financing terms and notes NBIS remains weak after a convertible deal. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @dampedspring | · | Will buy the unspecified asset if market conditions get messy. — After closing an earlier short, author states conditional intent to buy an unspecified asset. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @dampedspring | · | Reports a post-election high in the two-year yield and pricing for 2.5 hikes by Q3 2027. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @dampedspring | · | Reports covering a profitable short in an unspecified SOFR futures contract. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @dampedspring | · | Argues QE/QT dwarf Treasury shifts and says bond direction should depend on the economic-growth outlook. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @dampedspring | · | Explains how artificially low rates lift growth, inflation and real assets while weakening fiat and raising deleveraging risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @dampedspring | · | Reflects on weak research quality, difficulty separating signal from noise, and the importance of retaining beta. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @dampedspring | · | Mocks a multi-step long-term macro forecast as an implausible long shot. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @dampedspring | · | States that banks hold substantial government-guaranteed debt. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @dampedspring | · | Shares a historical framework on fiscal and monetary policymakers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @dampedspring | · | Frames the coming three months around midterms, macro volatility, and likely gridlock. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | JHEQX | @dampedspring | +0.50 | Reports call butterflies gained 2.5x since purchase and references a possible pin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @dampedspring | +0.45 | Discloses that Nvidia is 7.5% of the author's long U.S. equity allocation. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @dampedspring | +0.40 | Discloses a roughly 7.5% NVDA holding within the author's equity allocation. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.