Author
@dampedspring dampedspring
grade Ax.com/dampedspring ↗
Institutional macro PM dissecting Fed plumbing, bubble regimes, and cross-asset positioning with disclosed trades
Publishes original top-down macro frameworks (Fed/Treasury m
trader score
+0.97
hit rate
47%
mean α
+0.46%
signals 14d
30
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 19 scored bets: 47% hit rate, +0.46% mean alpha, trader score +0.97. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @dampedspring | · | Interprets the Treasury questionnaire as reducing odds of further intervention in long yields. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @dampedspring | · | Finds no questionnaire guidance indicating further manipulation of long-term yields. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @dampedspring | · | Reports 40 billion offered in a buyback and questions the policy response. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ZB | @dampedspring | +0.20 | Overwriting a maximum long ZB position here. — Discloses writing calls against a maximum long Treasury-bond futures position. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @dampedspring | · | Suggests consumers have exhausted discretionary spending capacity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Discloses a portfolio stance that is long bonds and short stocks while defending the AI trade. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Says data-center credit is not in crisis but higher leverage costs should modestly slow demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Playfully expresses a positive view on bonds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Criticizes Powell's cumulative 125-basis-point rate cuts as politically motivated and too easy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Reports renewed tactical asset-allocation flows during the session. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Argues option buyers on either side remain positioned for the painful outcome. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Sarcastically criticizes canceling the 20-year Treasury auction amid inflation concerns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @dampedspring | · | Dismisses concerns about 6% yields and a futures CTD flip as already reflected in skew | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @dampedspring | · | Argues the 48–56% net-long range for long-short funds is economically insignificant. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @dampedspring | · | Argues risk premiums were rising, contrary to skeptics relying on a single model. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.