Author

@FroehlichThors1 FroehlichThors1

Mechanistic macro bear chaining intermarket signals into specific ticker'd short and rotation trades

Original cross-asset macro analyst and active long/short tra

trader score
+1.07
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.73%
signals 14d
275

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.73% mean alpha, trader score +1.07. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.4% since posting (mean over 48 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Argues rate moves are ineffective and eventual Fed intervention is unavoidable.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Advocates a Fed duration flip to control long yields without expanding its balance sheet.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Argues conventional rate changes no longer materially affect the economy.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Suggests Warsh's comments were intended to reduce long-end Treasury costs.·
2026-08-28VIX@FroehlichThors1-0.65Jokingly favors crushing volatility to enable a market rally.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Says soft BLS revisions were insufficiently negative to influence the Fed.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Reports Warsh's hawkish message on solid labor and inflation concerns.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Favor German government bonds in the next economic downturn. — Recommends German government bonds over neighboring sovereign debt in a downturn.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Take some risk-asset and precious-metal exposure off before Warsh's speech. — Recommends reducing risk before a potentially non-dovish Jackson Hole speech.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Treats acquaintances sharing equity gains as a late-cycle caution signal.·
2026-08-28DAX@FroehlichThors1-0.90Rejects Deutsche Bank's optimistic Germany view and says the overbought DAX needs a hard reset.
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Argues Germany's growth is government-driven and lacks underlying economic strength.·
2026-08-28·@FroehlichThors1·Flags labor-market data as the key market concern over yields and equities.·
2026-08-27NVDA@FroehlichThors1-0.70Warns Nvidia receives overly favorable sovereign-like credit treatment that may create future problems.-4.6%
2026-08-27NVDA@FroehlichThors1-0.60Criticizes unusually weak protections in Nvidia's 20-year residual-value guarantee.-4.6%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.