Author
@FroehlichThors1 FroehlichThors1
grade Ax.com/FroehlichThors1 ↗
Mechanistic macro bear chaining intermarket signals into specific ticker'd short and rotation trades
Original cross-asset macro analyst and active long/short tra
trader score
+0.08
hit rate
45%
mean α
+0.04%
signals 14d
220
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, +0.04% mean alpha, trader score +0.08. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.6% since posting (mean over 32 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Warns that European outperformance alongside US weakness often precedes market trouble. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Uses 30 years of forecasts to argue inflation predictions perform poorly. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Forecasts inflation giving way to disinflation and deflation amid global economic weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Uses Japanese Treasury flows as a leading framework for higher US yields. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Downplays hot inflation readings because economic weakening should make them temporary. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | IWM | @FroehlichThors1 | +0.45 | Says falling two-year yields would provide a large boost to small caps. | +2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Warns that copper-related risks could propagate through a domino effect. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Bearish KOSPI framework based on leveraged retail flows and absent institutional capital. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Says bond markets rapidly shifted from inflation fear to recession fear. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | JII | @FroehlichThors1 | -0.70 | Warns possible MSCI standalone reclassification could force further Indonesian selling. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | European fuel-volume data indicates pronounced German and French economic weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Sell real estate. — Explicitly calls for selling illiquid real estate amid stalled transactions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Accept current housing bids and exit before 2027 panic selling. — Predicts global housing panic in 2027 and explicitly urges sellers to run. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | BTC | @FroehlichThors1 | -0.25 | Rejects the four-year Bitcoin cycle as a reliable trading framework. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Extremely bearish on Europe due to Chinese disinflation exports and collapsing rates. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.