Author
@FroehlichThors1 FroehlichThors1
grade Ax.com/FroehlichThors1 ↗
Mechanistic macro bear chaining intermarket signals into specific ticker'd short and rotation trades
Original cross-asset macro analyst and active long/short tra
trader score
+1.07
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.73%
signals 14d
275
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.73% mean alpha, trader score +1.07. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.4% since posting (mean over 48 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Argues rate moves are ineffective and eventual Fed intervention is unavoidable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Advocates a Fed duration flip to control long yields without expanding its balance sheet. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Argues conventional rate changes no longer materially affect the economy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Suggests Warsh's comments were intended to reduce long-end Treasury costs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | VIX | @FroehlichThors1 | -0.65 | Jokingly favors crushing volatility to enable a market rally. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Says soft BLS revisions were insufficiently negative to influence the Fed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Reports Warsh's hawkish message on solid labor and inflation concerns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Favor German government bonds in the next economic downturn. — Recommends German government bonds over neighboring sovereign debt in a downturn. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Take some risk-asset and precious-metal exposure off before Warsh's speech. — Recommends reducing risk before a potentially non-dovish Jackson Hole speech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Treats acquaintances sharing equity gains as a late-cycle caution signal. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | DAX | @FroehlichThors1 | -0.90 | Rejects Deutsche Bank's optimistic Germany view and says the overbought DAX needs a hard reset. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Argues Germany's growth is government-driven and lacks underlying economic strength. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @FroehlichThors1 | · | Flags labor-market data as the key market concern over yields and equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @FroehlichThors1 | -0.70 | Warns Nvidia receives overly favorable sovereign-like credit treatment that may create future problems. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @FroehlichThors1 | -0.60 | Criticizes unusually weak protections in Nvidia's 20-year residual-value guarantee. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.