Author
@Jesse_Livermore Jesse_Livermore
grade Ax.com/Jesse_Livermore ↗
Pseudonymous value-macro thinker dissecting the AI bubble with first-principles business-model frameworks
Posts long-form, reply-heavy threads building original econo
trader score
+0.36
hit rate
40%
mean α
+0.94%
signals 14d
33
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.94% mean alpha, trader score +0.36. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Core PCE ran at a 3% annualized rate over three months, partly due to a measurement quirk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Argues FICA increases masked revenue losses from other tax cuts and contributed to fiscal deterioration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Corrects a tax chart by noting FICA rates rose substantially and provides an ex-FICA version. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | TIPS | @Jesse_Livermore | +0.00 | Argues 2.3% is a better inflation floor because CPI averages 0.3 points above PCE. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Prefers TIPS but retains nominal Treasuries for recession, disinflation and portfolio diversification. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Fed-heavy Treasury CUSIPs near the 70% limit consistently offer lower yields than others. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Recommends avoiding Treasury CUSIPs near the Fed's 70% ownership limit due to weak support and lower yields. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Argues 15-year Treasuries offer attractive rolldown returns and diversification against an AI downturn. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Advises avoiding Treasury CUSIPs heavily owned by the Fed due to reduced buyback support prospects. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Rejects rising rates as the cause of a utility-specific 2%-5% selloff because other rate-sensitive sectors held up. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Speculates analyst downgrades may explain a broad utility selloff but names no affected company or firm. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Argues the utility selloff was likely sector-specific rather than rate-driven, with data centers a possible cause. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | EIX | @Jesse_Livermore | -0.15 | Considers but doubts California wildfire legislation as the explanation for EIX and SRE weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | SRE | @Jesse_Livermore | -0.15 | Considers but doubts California wildfire legislation as the explanation for EIX and SRE weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | PEG | @Jesse_Livermore | -0.40 | Reports broad regulated-utility losses and asks what caused them; ticker list is truncated to six. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.