Author
@Jesse_Livermore Jesse_Livermore
grade Ax.com/Jesse_Livermore ↗
Pseudonymous value-macro thinker dissecting the AI bubble with first-principles business-model frameworks
Posts long-form, reply-heavy threads building original econo
trader score
-0.59
hit rate
50%
mean α
-1.09%
signals 14d
13
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 6 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -1.09% mean alpha, trader score -0.59. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +12.7% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals13receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Says political inconsistency creates distrust and makes the Fed more hawkish at the margin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Notes the referenced investor would benefit from rate cuts despite avoiding duration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Argues Warsh was a poor choice for achieving aggressive rate cuts because he cannot build Fed consensus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Contrasts Rieder's dovish views with Warsh's credibility problems and ability to persuade the Fed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Criticizes the Fed leadership choice and argues it impairs support for dovish policy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Argues policy gave corporations cover to test and retain higher prices, reinforcing inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Argues debt markets are more consequential than the subject discussed in the parent reply. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Prefers qualified-dividend treatment and warns full tax exemption would destabilize municipal bonds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | T | @Jesse_Livermore | -0.20 | Thirty-year Treasury yields are near 5.6%, while tight tech credit spreads are questioned over a long horizon. | -13.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Reports strong Brazilian right-wing election performance and expected governing control. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | EWZ | @Jesse_Livermore | +0.50 | Reports EWZ up 10% in overnight trading. | +11.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Calls Brazilian-market risk-reward attractive due to rock-bottom valuations and upside optionality. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | · | @Jesse_Livermore | · | Frames Brazilian investments as positively exposed to a Bolsonaro outcome. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.