Author
@KASDad KASDad
grade Bx.com/KASDad ↗
Cautious macro-structure commentator dissecting passive concentration, AI/semis cyclicality, and bubble dynamics
Real-time commentary and framework-level analysis on market
trader score
-0.51
hit rate
15%
mean α
-0.28%
signals 14d
276
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 15% hit rate, -0.28% mean alpha, trader score -0.51. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.7% since posting (mean over 66 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KASDad | · | Reports an intraday put-call ratio of 0.927, the highest prospective close since September 16 but below true-fear levels. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KASDad | · | Compares current breadth with the extreme NYSE and Nasdaq breadth recorded on October 19, 1987. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KASDad | · | Warns that unavailable hedging could eventually amplify market volatility despite normally moderating it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | SPX | @KASDad | +0.30 | Compares the current decline with the pre-1987-crash drop and says another crash is extraordinarily unlikely. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | CL_X | @KASDad | +0.00 | Argues crude oil is driving equity-index and Treasury-price behavior, complicating forecasting across markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | ES_Z | @KASDad | +0.00 | Argues crude oil is driving equity-index and Treasury-price behavior, complicating forecasting across markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | ZN_Z | @KASDad | +0.00 | Argues crude oil is driving equity-index and Treasury-price behavior, complicating forecasting across markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | DJT | @KASDad | -0.90 | Argues DJT's traffic decline overwhelms its monetization efforts and reiterates an extremely bearish view. | -8.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KASDad | · | Uses the 1987 one-day decline exceeding 20% as the benchmark for what should qualify as a market crash. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @KASDad | · | Reviews forward-return studies after six, seven and eight consecutive down days, with mixed implications. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | SPX | @KASDad | +0.25 | Reports improving percentages of SPX components above key moving averages despite a slight eight-day index decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | TRV | @KASDad | -0.30 | Discloses a 15-year TRV holding while noting the stock fell 5.01% despite reportedly good earnings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | NVDA | @KASDad | -0.45 | Suggests NVDA is trying to suppress consideration of risks that could deflate AI enthusiasm. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | NVDA | @KASDad | -0.20 | Highlights Nvidia's customer, investment and vendor-financing ties to CoreWeave as a potential conflict of interest. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | CRWV | @KASDad | -0.15 | Highlights Nvidia's customer, investment and vendor-financing ties to CoreWeave as a potential conflict of interest. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.