Author
@KASDad KASDad
grade Bx.com/KASDad ↗
Cautious macro-structure commentator dissecting passive concentration, AI/semis cyclicality, and bubble dynamics
Real-time commentary and framework-level analysis on market
trader score
+1.54
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.57%
signals 14d
296
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.57% mean alpha, trader score +1.54. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.1% since posting (mean over 65 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | GC_V | @KASDad | -0.35 | Gold is down 3% as rising interest-rate sensitivity weighs on price. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Rising two- and ten-year Treasury yields are blamed for the equity selloff. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SPY | @KASDad | +0.25 | SPY regained a previously failed minor breakout, a constructive technical development. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SPX | @KASDad | +0.25 | SPX is up 3.6% MTD, outperforming weak seasonal expectations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Expects the policymaker to remain data-dependent and require trends rather than isolated readings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Characterizes the Fed chair's speech as hawkish and suggests a rate hike is needed for credibility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Reports Warsh's view that financial conditions are not restrictive. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Treasury yields rose after Warsh's remarks, particularly the two-year yield. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Interprets Warsh's inflation remarks as hawkish because inflation has not clearly retreated. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Says Warsh outlined policy inputs without giving explicit forward guidance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | GC_V | @KASDad | -0.35 | Gold sold off as the market interpreted Warsh's remarks as hawkish. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Says the broad market is not overbought and recently reached mildly oversold conditions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Notes mixed technical conditions but warns of tremendous, unpredictably timed equity risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Argues Hormuz crude flows may ease deficits but are insufficient to restore prewar inventories. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @KASDad | · | Warns of substantial market drawdowns in the three months after Jackson Hole speeches. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.