Author

@kurtsaltrichter kurtsaltrichter

Advisor who turns systematic-flow and dealer-gamma data into falsifiable macro scenario trees

Publishes near-daily index-level macro and positioning frame

trader score
-1.29
hit rate
35%
mean α
-0.22%
signals 14d
139

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.22% mean alpha, trader score -1.29. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.6% since posting (mean over 57 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28NVDA@kurtsaltrichter-0.75Argues Nvidia is financing customer demand through $230B-plus guarantees, echoing Lucent's 2000 playbook.
2026-08-28·@kurtsaltrichter·Frames record tanker rates as a hidden oil shock that would reach crude prices if Hormuz closes.·
2026-08-28·@kurtsaltrichter·Argues OPEC fragmentation and rising non-OPEC supply create more downside than upside for oil.·
2026-08-27DRAM@kurtsaltrichter-0.75Argues retail inflows into a falling cyclical memory-chip ETF risk another leg down.·
2026-08-27EWZ@kurtsaltrichter-0.80Predicts lower Brazilian equities as debt and yields rise while growth slows.-0.6%
2026-08-27INFY@kurtsaltrichter-0.75Argues AI breaks the labor-scaling model underpinning Indian IT outsourcing.·
2026-08-27SPY@kurtsaltrichter+0.70Own the broad index and retain the fee savings. — Explicitly recommends owning the index based on active managers' poor base rate.-0.2%
2026-08-27SPY@kurtsaltrichter+0.45Argues 60/40 portfolios underperformed equities and bonds no longer hedge stocks reliably.-0.2%
2026-08-27SPY@kurtsaltrichter+0.45Argues 60/40 portfolios underperformed equities and bonds no longer hedge stocks reliably.-0.2%
2026-08-26ORCL@kurtsaltrichter-0.75Argues Oracle's consensus cost assumptions are fragile and leave owners exposed to an earnings miss.+1.3%
2026-08-26F@kurtsaltrichter-0.70Argues investors are overvaluing tiny new battery and defense ventures relative to their expected profits.-0.1%
2026-08-26GM@kurtsaltrichter-0.45Argues investors are overvaluing tiny new battery and defense ventures relative to their expected profits.-0.1%
2026-08-26BX@kurtsaltrichter-0.40Argues nontraded BDC liquidity is illusory as outflows and redemption requests exceed quarterly gates.-0.6%
2026-08-26·@kurtsaltrichter·Frames institutional land buying as a generational rotation from paper money into hard assets.·
2026-08-26FXY@kurtsaltrichter+0.75Predicts a BOJ hike will trigger yen short covering and carry-trade deleveraging.-0.5%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.