@kurtsaltrichter kurtsaltrichter
Advisor who turns systematic-flow and dealer-gamma data into falsifiable macro scenario trees
Publishes near-daily index-level macro and positioning frame
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.59% mean alpha, trader score -0.69. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.0% since posting (mean over 28 mentions with price data).
Kurtsaltrichter is primarily trading and framing macro: Fed reaction paths, dollar liquidity, systematic flows, and rotation away from mega-cap leadership. He remains long small caps, exited EWY after a large YTD gain, and sees broader leadership in small/mid caps and EM while treating Fed hawkishness as the key downside risk for SPX and tech. Late-week tone became more constructive on ATH risk and Warsh/Fed oil concerns, but without a clean position flip beyond the EWY exit.
Conviction is consistent around macro event risk rather than single-stock calls: Fed tone, dollar liquidity, systematic selling, and rotation define the week. He exited EWY, held small-cap exposure, and ended with a more constructive read on new ATHs and Fed oil risk, but the evidence does not show a clean flip across the whole book. Concentration sits in SPX/DXY/Fed scenarios, with no CALL_DIRECTIONAL trade signals in the payload.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | Jobs print viewed as just right, lowering rate hike fears and supporting equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | WMT | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.35 | Historical Walmart growth story with revenue and split-adjusted share count details. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | Expects Warsh not to hike rates on short-term oil move, implying lower-rate support. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TLT | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.70 | Another buying opportunity in treasuries TLT. — Explicit forward buying opportunity call on TLT. | -0.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MSFT | @kurtsaltrichter | -0.65 | If shorting MSFT, this is where to think about entering. — Explicit short-entry setup at daily expected move. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TSLA | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.15 | TSLA bounced off daily expected move; no trade intent. | -7.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | Reports 34 ships through Strait of Hormuz, 74% below normal. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | VIX | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.00 | States VIX is at 16.45 with no clear stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | Reports latest full day canal/ship crossing count of 40 ships on June 29. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | XLRE | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.45 | States XLRE tagged expected move and they remain long plus ITB. | +1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ITB | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.45 | States XLRE tagged expected move and they remain long plus ITB. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | States market is in positive gamma. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | Claims month-end markup as PMs paint tape into close. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @kurtsaltrichter | · | Reports weekend attacks pushed crossings down to about 12 ships. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | SPX | @kurtsaltrichter | +0.35 | SPX breadth improved to 64.5% above 200-day; says rotation, not a top. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.