Author
@nickgiva1 nickgiva1
grade Ax.com/nickgiva1 ↗
Contrarian rates/macro trader dismantling the Bitcoin monetary narrative with curve mechanics
Posts original macro and rates frameworks (Fed policy, balan
trader score
+0.41
hit rate
60%
mean α
+0.44%
signals 14d
17
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.44% mean alpha, trader score +0.41. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.2% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | NQ | @nickgiva1 | +0.90 | Buy NQ. — Explicit forward buy instruction for Nasdaq futures. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | -0.25 | Observes a relative trade involving buying another asset versus shorting MSTR. | +6.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Rejects the claim that the Fed controls the 30-year Treasury yield. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Explains how interest-rate changes disproportionately affect financially marginal borrowers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Sarcastically rejects the possibility that current TIPS coupons exceed 10%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | +0.00 | Points Bitcoin readers to new levels and a reaction framework without stating the levels. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Recaps a fourth successful Treasury-futures passage from 104'00 over four days. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | DJI | @nickgiva1 | -0.45 | Highlights extreme SPX concentration while broader indices and sectors are down over 10%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | SPX | @nickgiva1 | -0.20 | Highlights extreme SPX concentration while broader indices and sectors are down over 10%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | SPX | @nickgiva1 | +0.05 | Sarcastically disputes a simplistic relationship between high interest rates and equity weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Sell the 96 calls while the unidentified underlying is below 96.10. — Recommends selling 96-strike calls, but the underlying is absent. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | High rates are expected to slow stocks' upward trajectory without causing an immediate decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | -0.70 | Dismisses bullish Bitcoin media and discussion as nonsense. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | -0.30 | Rejects going all-in on Bitcoin and expects at least a move to 95K while describing MSTR risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | -0.20 | Rejects going all-in on Bitcoin and expects at least a move to 95K while describing MSTR risk. | -11.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.