Author
@nickgiva1 nickgiva1
grade Ax.com/nickgiva1 ↗
Contrarian rates/macro trader dismantling the Bitcoin monetary narrative with curve mechanics
Posts original macro and rates frameworks (Fed policy, balan
trader score
+1.15
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.51%
signals 14d
36
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.51% mean alpha, trader score +1.15. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.1% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Consider 3-month 210–250 calls if the unnamed asset reaches 208. — Proposes a forward call-options entry but the underlying ticker is absent and requires parent context. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Argues an unnamed bond-related asset remains extremely cheap if Warsh credibly targets 2% PCE. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Author says TIPS are down 6% only on a price basis and nearly unchanged when dividends are included. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Argues long-duration bonds reached value levels and sticky inflation favors TIPS over nominal Treasuries. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Rejects reports that Treasury will spend the TGA on buybacks and calls the sums immaterial. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Warns that abandoning the TGA target would raise term premia across the Treasury curve. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Argues Treasury buybacks reduce private-sector duration and ease financial conditions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Criticizes Treasury secondary-market bond buybacks as a taxpayer-backed position with asymmetric incentives. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | +0.35 | Says Bitcoin is breaking favorable levels and that a technically clear upside trigger exists. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Warns that the bond market would harshly punish the proposed fiscal stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | States that nothing appears particularly bearish, without naming an asset. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Yield moves after Warsh milestones are presented sarcastically as evidence of hawkishness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | +0.10 | Discloses owning Bitcoin but prefers gold, commodities, and productive real assets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | -0.35 | Sarcastically mocks the idea that a tiny Bitcoin holding ensures prosperity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | SPX | @nickgiva1 | -0.30 | Notes stocks remain down more than 100 SPX points for the week. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.