@nickgiva1 nickgiva1
Contrarian rates/macro trader dismantling the Bitcoin monetary narrative with curve mechanics
Posts original macro and rates frameworks (Fed policy, balan
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, +1.06% mean alpha, trader score +1.08. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.9% since posting (mean over 19 mentions with price data).
Author is concentrated on a Warsh/Fed tightening framework expressed through short front-end rates, curve flatteners, short gold, long DXY, and concern over risk assets. The distinctive read is that policy credibility and CPI risk can force materially tighter rates and violent curve moves. Late-week attention shifted toward a bearish MSTR balance-sheet/common-equity thesis and avoiding short MSTR volatility.
Conviction is concentrated in Warsh/Fed tightening risk, front-end shorts, curve flatteners, short gold, long DXY, and a bearish late-week MSTR thesis. The macro framework intensified after the Fed statement, with repeated follow-on claims about CPI, potential 50bp+ hikes, and effectively higher rates. No clean flip appears; the notable new claim is MSTR downside and volatility risk surfacing on June 18-19.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Recaps a past flattener trade and argues lower long-term rates should not persist. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | -0.45 | Says BTC is lower risk than MSTR even with leverage. | +15.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX | @nickgiva1 | +0.45 | Mocks shorting SPX as a very long-term bar is about to close. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Compares Q2 asset-class performance and says gold underperformed BTC. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Speculates lower liquidity and repo need knocked USTs slightly lower. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Criticizes leveraged retail product economics and 12% cost. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | -0.85 | Argues MSTR will underperform BTC and become a zombie with no more BTC buys. | +15.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | -0.60 | Past-tense claim that MSTR/IBIT collapsed as expected. | +22.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | IBIT | @nickgiva1 | -0.40 | Past-tense claim that MSTR/IBIT collapsed as expected. | +3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @nickgiva1 | · | Recaps getting out of gold shorts, DXY longs and yield-curve flattener. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | -0.85 | Says MSTR common is impaired until next BTC bull run and should stop buying BTC. | +22.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | +0.00 | Says MSTR common is impaired until next BTC bull run and should stop buying BTC. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | MSTR | @nickgiva1 | +0.00 | References last Sunday's views after a great week without new stance. | +22.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | BTC | @nickgiva1 | +0.00 | References last Sunday's views after a great week without new stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | IBIT | @nickgiva1 | +0.00 | References last Sunday's views after a great week without new stance. | +3.0% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.