@pauldejong_ pauldejong_
Data-chart publisher dissecting mega-cap tech concentration, valuation, and earnings growth
Posts original quantitative charts decomposing Nasdaq 100 /
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.34% mean alpha, trader score +1.11. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.0% since posting (mean over 31 mentions with price data).
This author is not disclosing positions or making explicit trades; the window is dominated by market-history charts across SPY, SPX, VOO, XLK, XLC, BTC, and QQQ. The distinctive read is a base-rate lens that frames equity markets as historically upward-drifting despite event volatility, with a secondary weekly-mover screen highlighting MU, TSM, and SPCX strength versus MSFT, WMT, and XOM weakness. No clear late-week position flip or trade intensification is present in the provided signals.
No explicit adds, trims, exits, or directional calls appear in the provided signals. The week is concentrated in neutral-to-constructive base-rate charting, especially S&P 500 proxies, with a mild constructive tilt from the June 18 market-drift signal. There is no supported evidence of a conviction flip, fading trade, or intensifying position disclosure.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | IWM | @pauldejong_ | +0.00 | Chart of Russell 2K all-time highs broken down by decade. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | RTY | @pauldejong_ | +0.00 | Chart of Russell 2K all-time highs broken down by decade. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @pauldejong_ | -0.15 | Lists first-half 2026 market cap gains and losses with dollar figures. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MU | @pauldejong_ | +0.25 | Lists first-half 2026 market cap gains and losses with dollar figures. | -5.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TCEHY | @pauldejong_ | -0.15 | Lists first-half 2026 market cap gains and losses with dollar figures. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | PLTR | @pauldejong_ | -0.15 | Lists first-half 2026 market cap gains and losses with dollar figures. | +2.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TSM | @pauldejong_ | +0.25 | Lists first-half 2026 market cap gains and losses with dollar figures. | -2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MSFT | @pauldejong_ | -0.20 | Lists first-half 2026 market cap gains and losses with dollar figures. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | VOO | @pauldejong_ | +0.45 | Forward return win rates are cited as higher across future months. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPY | @pauldejong_ | +0.45 | Forward return win rates are cited as higher across future months. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @pauldejong_ | · | Reports YTD global fund flows into US equities at 2.5% of AUM since 2002 context. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IWM | @pauldejong_ | +0.00 | Russell 2K price vs EPS chart reference without explicit stance. | -0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | RTY | @pauldejong_ | +0.00 | Russell 2K price vs EPS chart reference without explicit stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | VOO | @pauldejong_ | +0.00 | Chart breaks down S&P 500 big move days by decade since 1950. | +0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | SPX | @pauldejong_ | +0.00 | Chart breaks down S&P 500 big move days by decade since 1950. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.