Author
@qthomp qthomp
grade Ax.com/qthomp ↗
Named macro PM building original rates/FX/energy frameworks into specific tickered trades
Publishes original top-down macro analysis on inflation, rat
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
13
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.8% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals13receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | · | @qthomp | · | Expects inflation and growth downside surprises to stabilize as labor strengthens, complicating bond management. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SPCX | @qthomp | -0.60 | Short Nasdaq after the SPCX IPO following a pre-IPO market pump. — Proposes shorting Nasdaq after SPCX's IPO and analogizes the setup to a future Anthropic IPO. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @qthomp | -0.15 | Cites elevated equity allocation, extreme skew and cycle-high margin debt before NVDA earnings. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SPX | @qthomp | -0.30 | Cites elevated equity allocation, extreme skew and cycle-high margin debt before NVDA earnings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @qthomp | · | Argues Treasury market interventions amid equity highs indicate housing and capital costs are the true problem. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @qthomp | · | Notes gold gained 16% in 60 days and links the move to a political shift in New York. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @qthomp | · | Calls the week's developments decisive for the next leg of secular inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @qthomp | · | Expects renewed geopolitical headline manipulation after bond-market intervention attempts failed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @qthomp | · | Warns exhausted policy tools could produce a larger crisis, money printing, inflation, or all three. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @qthomp | · | Expects inflationary side effects from yield-curve control and favors commodities over technology. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @qthomp | · | Calls Treasury's approach inflationary and strongly favors hard assets and inflation protection. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @qthomp | · | Author calls an unspecified write-up a highly consequential long opportunity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @qthomp | · | The next few weeks are framed as Treasury Secretary Bessent's hardest policy challenge. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.