@qthomp qthomp
Named macro PM building original rates/FX/energy frameworks into specific tickered trades
Publishes original top-down macro analysis on inflation, rat
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, +1.05% mean alpha, trader score +2.13. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.9% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
qthomp is focused on macro-policy stress and Strategy-linked balance-sheet weakness, with explicit bullish calls on SOFR futures and gold. The distinctive read is that Fed/BOJ hawkishness, yen positioning, oil weakness, and yield-curve signals create opportunities while Strategy’s capital stack remains distressed. No clear position flip is visible; bearish Strategy/BTC commentary is repeated while macro longs emerge mid-window.
The week is dominated by repeated bearish Strategy capital-stack commentary and macro-policy analysis, with explicit long calls appearing in SOFR futures on June 16 and gold on June 18. There is no clear flip or position disclosure, but the author keeps returning to Strategy liquidity/deleveraging risk while adding macro opportunities around Fed hawkishness, oil weakness, rates, FX, and yen positioning. Concentration is highest in Strategy-linked instruments, especially STRC, creating a pump-risk flag despite the bearish tilt.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @qthomp | · | Says rate hikes are not happening and inflation will cycle lower. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @qthomp | · | June saw two largest equity raises ever and fastest net US equity issuance since 1999. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @qthomp | · | Says expanding outlets for speculation have been a headwind to crypto markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @qthomp | · | References applying 2024 Middle East conflict election mental model to current situation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @qthomp | · | Gold down 30% with bearish positioning and capitulation signals into strong seasonality. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | MSTR | @qthomp | +0.20 | Views MSTR cash reserve build as positive but says capital structure is less interesting now. | +8.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | STRC | @qthomp | +0.00 | Views MSTR cash reserve build as positive but says capital structure is less interesting now. | +5.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @qthomp | · | Says inflation swaps below pre-war levels are not something a central bank hikes into. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @qthomp | · | Framework argues consensus is too hawkish on rate hikes under Warsh Fed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @qthomp | · | Discusses importance of Fed balance sheet policy transmission to markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @qthomp | · | Says Brent filled Iran-war gap and Fed is too hawkish using rearview mirror. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @qthomp | · | Calls Fed pivot ill-timed and hawkish, expecting energy shock to roll off. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @qthomp | · | Research note says there is a swing opportunity ahead in STIR complex with trade structure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @qthomp | · | Oil market manipulation and interventionist tactics framed as cross-asset risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | MSTR | @qthomp | +0.25 | Constructive on Strategy using MSTR issuance to raise cash and bolster the balance sheet, though notes common pressure. | -7.9% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.