Author
@qthomp qthomp
grade Ax.com/qthomp ↗
Named macro PM building original rates/FX/energy frameworks into specific tickered trades
Publishes original top-down macro analysis on inflation, rat
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
18
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.3% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @qthomp | · | The author highlights election incentives that may encourage geopolitical escalation over the next two weeks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @qthomp | · | Depleted reserves and widening Middle East conflict are framed as underpriced geopolitical market risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @qthomp | · | The author warns against complacency around oil, implying upside risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @qthomp | · | Despite two hot inflation prints, rate-hike odds declined, suggesting a different broader-market path. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @qthomp | · | Argues a crisis is already underway earlier than consensus recognizes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @qthomp | · | Promotes an oil-trading framework based on futures curves, volatility, geopolitics and positioning. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | IWM | @qthomp | -0.45 | Russell 2000 futures posted an unprecedented eight straight negative weeks in data since the 1980s. | -0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @qthomp | · | Calls two unidentified FOMC outcomes underpriced with more than two weeks remaining. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @qthomp | · | Links equal-weight and small-cap weakness to deteriorating Main Street conditions and persistent inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @qthomp | · | Argues wars reinforce one another through elevated commodity prices that fund aligned combatants. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @qthomp | · | Cites a historical presidential-approval base rate and election probability analysis for markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @qthomp | · | Argues war damage to Russian production and refining makes the oil supply shortage broader than Iran. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @qthomp | · | Strongly rejects a proposed Russia-diesel strategy as infeasible and strategically unsound. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @qthomp | · | Suggests Bessent and Warsh are again intervening rhetorically to support markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @qthomp | · | Maintain Brent longs relative to WTI, though conviction has declined. — Reiterates a Brent-over-WTI relative-value trade while acknowledging reduced conviction. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.