Author

@qthomp qthomp

Named macro PM building original rates/FX/energy frameworks into specific tickered trades

Publishes original top-down macro analysis on inflation, rat

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
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Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.8% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).

Recent signals13receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27·@qthomp·Expects inflation and growth downside surprises to stabilize as labor strengthens, complicating bond management.·
2026-08-26SPCX@qthomp-0.60Short Nasdaq after the SPCX IPO following a pre-IPO market pump. — Proposes shorting Nasdaq after SPCX's IPO and analogizes the setup to a future Anthropic IPO.·
2026-08-26NVDA@qthomp-0.15Cites elevated equity allocation, extreme skew and cycle-high margin debt before NVDA earnings.+3.8%
2026-08-26SPX@qthomp-0.30Cites elevated equity allocation, extreme skew and cycle-high margin debt before NVDA earnings.·
2026-08-25·@qthomp·Argues Treasury market interventions amid equity highs indicate housing and capital costs are the true problem.·
2026-08-23·@qthomp·Notes gold gained 16% in 60 days and links the move to a political shift in New York.·
2026-08-21·@qthomp·Calls the week's developments decisive for the next leg of secular inflation.·
2026-08-20·@qthomp·Expects renewed geopolitical headline manipulation after bond-market intervention attempts failed.·
2026-08-20·@qthomp·Warns exhausted policy tools could produce a larger crisis, money printing, inflation, or all three.·
2026-08-19·@qthomp·Expects inflationary side effects from yield-curve control and favors commodities over technology.·
2026-08-19·@qthomp·Calls Treasury's approach inflationary and strongly favors hard assets and inflation protection.·
2026-08-18·@qthomp·Author calls an unspecified write-up a highly consequential long opportunity.·
2026-08-18·@qthomp·The next few weeks are framed as Treasury Secretary Bessent's hardest policy challenge.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.