Author · brief 2026-06-22

@R1chardMaur1ce R1chardMaur1ce

Disciplined momentum swing trader married to a long-horizon macro-cycle crash thesis

Posts forward, level-specific trade setups (longs, shorts, o

trader score
-0.17
hit rate
55%
mean α
-0.31%
signals 14d
161

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.31% mean alpha, trader score -0.17. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.4% since posting (mean over 92 mentions with price data).

Tactical rotation from losers into momentum and select longs

Author is trading tactically, favoring momentum and relative strength in names like NBIS, CAT, KEEL, ASTER, MU, while warning against weak SaaS, consumer and prior retail favorites. Distinctive read is less fundamental than tape-driven: buy strength, abandon broken supports, and rotate away from falling knives such as SNAP, ADBE, PYPL and DUOL. Late window shows active exits, trims and stop discipline, including WOLF sold for KEEL, ASTER profit-taking with stop raised, and continued skepticism toward multi-year fantasy targets despite still holding SIVE, AAOI and SNDK.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Momentum rotation and tactical long setups
bullintensifying22 signals
Broken growth and falling-knife avoidance
mixedintensifying31 signals
Optical and semiconductor support discipline
mixedconsistent27 signals
Crypto and speculative short scalps
bearconsistent9 signals
⚠ 44% of theme signals are HYPE — flag pump risk
Macro timing and market-regime caution
mixedintensifying19 signals
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in tactical rotation: adding or holding relative strength in NBIS, CAT, KEEL and ASTER while exiting WOLF and trimming BRUN. Bearish pressure intensified around broken growth and weak supports, with explicit short or exit calls on EBAY, META and SNAP plus repeated ADBE skepticism. Pump-risk is most relevant in speculative single-name trades such as ASTER, SIVE and AAOI, where he discloses holdings but also warns against delusional long-term targets.

Position disclosures7skin in the game
WOLF Sold WOLF for a 1% loss and rotated into KEEL for stronger momentum. exited
KEEL Bought KEEL after selling WOLF for stronger momentum exposure. added
NBIS Owns NBIS and recently bought more, preferring it over BRUN. added
BRUN Owns BRUN but sold a chunk and would choose NBIS instead. trimmed
ASTER Took profit on ASTER long and moved stop above entry. trimmed
SIVE Still holding SIVE and sees no reason to sell more despite profit-taking openness. held
AAOI Still long AAOI while skeptical of unrealistic multi-year targets. held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
ADA technical damage is accelerating after breaking multi-year lows, implying further downside and weaker investor confi
bearMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Some traders prefer risk-managed participation: trim after the run, respect resistance, or wait for a decisive reclaim b
neutralMEDIUM2 co-supporters
Lock-up expirations and insider supply could create near-term selling pressure before any thesis re-entry window.
bearHIGH8 co-supporters
Post-earnings weakness may need lower technical support near $170-$200 before risk-reward improves.
neutralMEDIUM5 co-supporters
ADA is viewed by skeptics as poor-quality crypto exposure or exit liquidity relative to stronger assets.
bearMEDIUM7 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03SOL@R1chardMaur1ce+0.35Sell naked BTC 55K and SOL 66 puts expiring July 10 — Forward weekly options trade selling naked puts on BTC and SOL with expiry and strikes.·
2026-07-03BTC@R1chardMaur1ce+0.35Sell naked BTC 55K and SOL 66 puts expiring July 10 — Forward weekly options trade selling naked puts on BTC and SOL with expiry and strikes.·
2026-07-03ETH@R1chardMaur1ce+0.00Recaps SOL expiry loss and mentions BTC+ETH trades offset part of it.·
2026-07-03SOL@R1chardMaur1ce-0.20Recaps SOL expiry loss and mentions BTC+ETH trades offset part of it.·
2026-07-03BTC@R1chardMaur1ce+0.00Recaps SOL expiry loss and mentions BTC+ETH trades offset part of it.·
2026-07-03NUAI@R1chardMaur1ce-0.35Take the loss if NUAI does not hold 4.75 — States prepared to take loss if 4.75 support fails, while hoping for a bounce.
2026-07-03CRDO@R1chardMaur1ce+0.55Likely long CRDO on bounce from 229/234 support — Conditional forward long if CRDO bounces from support; below support means wait.
2026-07-03HIMS@R1chardMaur1ce+0.30Describes resistance at 37.50/41.50 and 40-60% upside if resistance flips to support.
2026-07-02META@R1chardMaur1ce-0.70Trade below 640 targets 480 on META short — Maintains bearish META short framework with 480 target below 640.
2026-07-02BRUN@R1chardMaur1ce+0.05Maps bullish and bearish scenarios around diagonal and 26 support without action.
2026-07-02OUST@R1chardMaur1ce+0.25Speculates OUST could become a mini Roaring Kitty-style mover.
2026-07-02NBIS@R1chardMaur1ce-0.70Exit all NBIS if it loses 187 — Bearish level framework says NBIS is weak and author would exit all below 187.
2026-07-02TSLA@R1chardMaur1ce-0.45TSLA dropped below macro/local 50% levels with lower highs and lows.
2026-07-02SOL@R1chardMaur1ce+0.05Watches whether SOL will close above $80 in 9 hours.·
2026-07-02SIVE@R1chardMaur1ce-0.45SIVE needs to hold SEK 60 or fall could be brutal; stop example at SEK 56.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.