@semicon_eng1 semicon_eng1
Memory/NAND value-chain specialist with mechanistic, second-order supply-chain reasoning
Bottom-up and thematic semiconductor analysis centered on me
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -2.75% mean alpha, trader score -1.59. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -9.3% since posting (mean over 259 mentions with price data).
The author is overwhelmingly long Kioxia and broader memory, with explicit adds or add-on-dip calls in Kioxia and Micron. Their distinctive read is that AI datacenter demand, LTAs, supply discipline, policy support and customer price acceptance make this memory cycle structurally different from prior commodity cycles. Late in the window they concentrated further into Kioxia and memory while exiting China-exposed equipment names.
Conviction is intensifying around Kioxia and the memory basket, with explicit add-only Kioxia calls, Micron dip-buying plans, and disclosures that Kioxia now exceeds 80% of Japanese holdings. The author added or held Kioxia, Micron, Sandisk and SK Hynix while exiting China-exposed equipment names to concentrate in memory. Concentration risk is extreme: Kioxia dominates both the signal count and disclosed Japanese equity exposure.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.45 | Says Kioxia's new product has high expectations due to U.S. power infrastructure bottlenecks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.55 | Argues Kioxia has upside and dismissing it due to missed entry is self-justification. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.25 | Interprets Kioxia president's comments as capex being restrained versus past memory cycles. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.40 | Says hyperscaler visit to Kioxia Kitakami fab likely has important positive customer-signal implications. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.55 | Cites IwaiCosmo analyst comment that Kioxia leads peers in wafer bonding and can keep advancing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | MU | @semicon_eng1 | +0.20 | Says Micron was sold down to $300 after Google tech news, but big-picture variables matter. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | GOOGL | @semicon_eng1 | +0.00 | Says Micron was sold down to $300 after Google tech news, but big-picture variables matter. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.10 | Comments that people stopped out near 68000 on Kioxia likely faced a tough outcome after buying back. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.25 | Says Kioxia turnover did not hit record but strong buying entered after the open sell indication. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | -0.25 | Mentions a sharp fall in Kioxia without standalone detail. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | -0.25 | Links Kioxia's plunge to Apple China-memory and Meta external-sales reports as event collisions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @semicon_eng1 | +0.00 | Links Kioxia's plunge to Apple China-memory and Meta external-sales reports as event collisions. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AAPL | @semicon_eng1 | +0.00 | Links Kioxia's plunge to Apple China-memory and Meta external-sales reports as event collisions. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SNDK | @semicon_eng1 | +0.10 | Mentions SanDisk Hyperdash level at 1826 dollars with chart link. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | 285A.T | @semicon_eng1 | +0.00 | Says the author did not buy Kioxia at all today. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.