Ticker brief · 2026-10-18
000660.KS
Cheap earnings collide with HBM execution doubts and foreign selling
Lean: mixedlast close
$1,647,000
1 day
+3.2%
14 days
-4.8%
mkt cap
·
signals 14d
184
authors 14d
58
crowd 14d
-2.3σ
The narrative is mixed: credible bulls see earnings upside and excessive competitive fears, while stronger specialist bears identify HBM4 execution risk. The late-week shift was Rosenblatt's October 16 Buy reiteration dismissing the CXMT selloff, alongside renewed buying calls after another severe decline. The trade structure favors staged accumulation over an immediate full position because foreign selling and unresolved HBM4 reports remain the binding risks.
BULL CAMP
Depressed earnings multiples undervalue the memory earnings outlook, while long-term contracts improve visibility. CXMT's unproven commercial capabilities do not justify the scale of the selloff.
Key voices“CXMT has not caught leading memory suppliers; the associated selloff is irrational.”— @jukan05 · tweet ↗
BEAR / SKEPTIC
HBM4 packaging difficulties and uncertain pricing threaten leadership and earnings delivery. Chinese competition, potentially cyclical profits and persistent foreign selling challenge the assumption that low forward multiples provide a floor.
Key voices@jukan05HIGHB+1.34@zephyr_z9MEDIUM-HIGHA+0.59@paurooteriMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.22@Myeongsu_beanMEDIUM-HIGHB-1.11@scottmelkerMEDIUM-HIGHC+1.93
“Persistent HBM4 packaging problems could cost Hynix leadership and hand Samsung the largest share.”— @zephyr_z9 · tweet ↗
Hypotheses15direction · basis · magnitude · supporters — NEW = first seen this week
▲SK Hynix's depressed forward valuation understates achievable memory earnings, creating upside as stronger profits validate the apparent discount.
@jukan05HIGHB+1.341s · insight@JonahLuptonMEDIUM-HIGHA+0.461s · insight@fulllleverageC-2.475s@tsungrowMEDIUMC-0.471s@EhrmantrautCap_MEDIUMC-1.231s@ANDYmoonLOW-MEDIUMC-2.411s+2 more
▲Long-term supply agreements and structurally tight memory supply strengthen pricing visibility and reduce the industry's historical earnings cyclicality.
▼CXMT's planned server DDR5 launch and expanding Chinese memory capabilities threaten incumbent pricing, market share and SK Hynix's profitability.
@Jaymin_AlphaMEDIUMB-0.351s · insight@fulllleverageC-2.471s@kautiousCoLOW-MEDIUMB+0.002s · insight@SOU_BTCLOW-MEDIUMC-1.451s@Asktraders1LOW-MEDIUMC1s@CryptoWesearchB-0.241s+4 more
▲The CXMT-driven selloff overstates a competitor whose scale, yields and customer qualification remain unproven, creating a recovery opportunity.
▼Reported HBM4 equipment delays and packaging difficulties threaten SK Hynix's technology leadership, pricing power and competitive position against Samsung.
@jukan05HIGHB+1.342s · insight@zephyr_z9MEDIUM-HIGHA+0.592s · insight@paurooteriMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.222s · insight@RYANHINGSHINGMEDIUM-HIGHA-0.121s · insight@Trader_Jesse_MEDIUMB-1.831s · insight@damnang2MEDIUM-HIGHA-0.371s · insight
▼Persistent selling and weak price support leave SK Hynix vulnerable to further declines despite intermittent rebounds and corporate buying.
@fulllleverageC-2.477s@Jaymin_AlphaMEDIUMB-0.351s · insight@Myeongsu_beanMEDIUM-HIGHB-1.112s · insight@diunn28LOW-MEDIUMC+2.673s@fourseasonfanLOW-MEDIUMB-0.201s · insight@ParadisLabsMEDIUM-HIGHA-2.181s · insight+4 more
▼Low forward multiples reflect fragile peak-profit forecasts as unsustainable memory-price growth, overinvestment and uncertain AI returns threaten future earnings.
@fulllleverageC-2.473s@Myeongsu_beanMEDIUM-HIGHB-1.111s · insight@vontuchmanMEDIUM-HIGHA-1.021s · insight@kautiousCoLOW-MEDIUMB+0.002s · insight@De_beleggerMEDIUMC+1.051s@SebagyeongLOW-MEDIUMC-1.161s+1 more
▲An excessive selloff and tentative bottoming signals create an opportunity to accumulate SK Hynix for a near-term rebound.
@fulllleverageC-2.4711s@fourseasonfanLOW-MEDIUMB-0.201s · insight@Keymong368774LOW-MEDIUMC-2.543s@damnang2MEDIUM-HIGHA-0.371s · insight@yukimamaxMEDIUMC-1.372s
◆Memory exposure should favor US companies over Korean peers because policy support and relative investment characteristics improve their appeal.
@Myeongsu_beanMEDIUM-HIGHB-1.111s · insight@ViewsOfChrisMEDIUM-HIGHC-1.631s
◆Solidigm's reported selection of IPO underwriters advances a possible public listing and capital raise, with uncertain implications for SK Hynix shareholders.
@Jaymin_AlphaMEDIUMB-0.351s · insight
▲Reported progress on SK Hynix's MARS and HBF roadmap extends its future memory product opportunity through a defined sampling milestone.
@paurooteriMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.221s · insight
▲SK Hynix's SSD transaction processor architecture offers area and power advantages that could strengthen its competitive position in AI storage.
@QQ_TimmyMEDIUM-HIGHB-0.891s · insight@EhrmantrautCap_MEDIUMC-1.231s
◆SK Hynix reportedly links a proposed US factory to expanded equipment export approval for China, making regulatory negotiations a project dependency.
▼Regulatory or land-use obstacles at SK Hynix's planned fab could force project delays or redesign, complicating its capacity expansion.
@PhotonCapMEDIUM-HIGHA-0.731s · insight
▼ASML's accepted lithography-equipment parts price increase raises SK Hynix's manufacturing input costs, creating incremental pressure on memory production economics.
@fulllleverageC-2.471s
Direct calls5authors taking explicit directional positions
@damnang2MEDIUM-HIGHA-0.37
Buy Samsung and SK hynix now.
@Myeongsu_beanMEDIUM-HIGHB-1.11
Prefer MU or SNDK over Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix for memory exposure because of perceived US policy support.
@yukimamaxMEDIUMC-1.37
Hold SK Hynix and accumulate through the Korean deleveraging selloff.
@Keymong368774LOW-MEDIUMC-2.54
Resume short-term SK Hynix trading near or below ₩1.6M.
@colu_farmerLOW-MEDIUMC+0.31
Wait for further downside or more time before re-entering Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Sellside activity3
Meritz pt_raiseRaised the target to KRW3.2m on a Q3 operating-profit surprise forecast. The target is denominated in KRW; no dollar conversion was supplied.
Meritz noteForecast Q3 profit above consensus on HBM4 and mobile-business strength; overlaps the earnings-surprise thesis accompanying the target increase.
Rosenblatt reiterateReiterated Buy ratings on Micron and SK Hynix and characterized the CXMT-driven selloff as overblown.
News / data points5discrete events + data quoted by authors
@fulllleverageC-2.47
Rosenblatt reiterated Buy on Micron and SK Hynix, describing the CXMT-driven selloff as excessive.
@jukan05HIGHB+1.34
Korean media reported SK Hynix postponed HBM4 packaging-equipment orders until next year.
@fulllleverageC-2.47
Meritz raised its SK Hynix target to KRW3.2m and forecast a Q3 operating-profit surprise.
@JesseCohenInvHIGHC-1.01
SK Hynix fell another 11% in Seoul.
@fulllleverageC-2.47
Samsung and SK Hynix lost 15.94% and 21.66%, respectively, over five sessions.
Position disclosures3skin in the game
@Keymong368774LOW-MEDIUMC-2.54
Added two SK Hynix shares, bringing the holding to six.
@gaasychLOW-MEDIUMC-1.16
Disclosed additions to SK Hynix, MU and NBIS.
@yukimamaxMEDIUMC-1.37
Indicated continued holding and intended accumulation of SK Hynix.
Desk readconvergence assessment
There is no consensus: credible voices split between excessive valuation compression and genuine HBM4 execution risk, with jukan05 supporting both the CXMT rebuttal and the equipment-delay report. Credibility is broadly balanced, but rebound enthusiasm is amplified by fulllleverage's 51 signals and -3.19 trader score; bearish Myeongsu_bean and ParadisLabs also have negative scores, while zephyr_z9 and scottmelker have positive scores. Confirmed HBM4 production progress, realized contract pricing and sustained foreign buying would resolve the dispute; every supplied prior hypothesis is unscored, so the quant context provides no realized-outcome validation.
Sentiment — last 14 days
daily mean sentiment, 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-16 · now -0.01 (−1 bearish … +1 bullish)
Who spoke58
| author | grade | trader score | signals | mean sent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @fulllleverage | C | -2.47 | 82 | +0.05 |
| @paurooteri | B | -0.22 | 11 | +0.06 |
| @Myeongsu_bean | B | -1.11 | 9 | -0.23 |
| @jukan05 | B | +1.34 | 6 | -0.02 |
| @Jaymin_Alpha | B | -0.35 | 5 | +0.08 |
| @Keymong368774 | C | -2.54 | 5 | +0.37 |
| @yukimamax | C | -1.37 | 3 | +0.70 |
| @diunn28 | C | +2.67 | 3 | -0.77 |
| @fourseasonfan | B | -0.20 | 3 | -0.15 |
| @kautiousCo | B | +0.00 | 3 | -0.63 |
| @gaasych | C | -1.16 | 2 | +0.52 |
| @damnang2 | A | -0.37 | 2 | +0.38 |
| @tsungrow | C | -0.47 | 2 | +0.05 |
| @zephyr_z9 | A | +0.59 | 2 | -0.47 |
| @SOU_BTC | C | -1.45 | 2 | -0.51 |
| @EhrmantrautCap_ | C | -1.23 | 2 | +0.35 |
| @DrNHJ | B | -0.83 | 1 | +0.30 |
| @AlmaCap114204 | A | +1.17 | 1 | +0.70 |
| @ren_stocks | · | -0.40 | 1 | +0.60 |
| @DeepDive_KR | B | -1.58 | 1 | -0.30 |
| @FinnStockinger | A | +0.28 | 1 | +0.55 |
| @The_AI_Investor | A | -0.97 | 1 | -0.15 |
| @LOBBSBY | C | +0.97 | 1 | +0.45 |
| @InvestVerified | C | +0.45 | 1 | -0.10 |
| @semicon_eng1 | A | -2.67 | 1 | -0.25 |
Recent signals30of 184 in 14d — receipts included
| date (PT) | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | @EhrmantrautCap_ | +0.35 | Reports SK hynix unveiling an energy-efficient SSD transaction processor architecture. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | @SOU_BTC | -0.38 | China's memory expansion and Korean structural weaknesses threaten Samsung and SK Hynix profitability. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | @BenzingaSpain | -0.40 | Reports sharp share-price declines across three memory-chip makers. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | @fulllleverage | +0.40 | Rosenblatt reiterates Buy ratings on Micron and SK Hynix, calling the CXMT-driven selloff overblown. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.15 | Reports Korean index flows and gains, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix performance. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.40 | Reports foreign buying and strong intraday gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.45 | Reports expanding gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and hopes Hynix reaches KRW 1.35M. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.25 | Reports broad Asian memory-sector gains led by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Kioxia and CXMT. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.25 | Reports index gains, investor flows, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix performance. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @damnang2 | +0.75 | This is a great time to buy Samsung and SK hynix. — Explicitly recommends buying both Korean memory manufacturers now. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @gaasych | +0.65 | Added to SK Hynix, MU and NBIS. — Explicitly discloses additions to three holdings. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.25 | Reports a broad Korean-market rebound, investor flows, and gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @ViewsOfChris | -0.20 | Long-form memory thesis favors Micron on valuation, buybacks, policy support and potential HBM share gains. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.35 | Hopes SK Hynix rebounds about 4% by the close despite continuing foreign selling. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @ANDYmoon | +0.35 | Says Samsung and SK Hynix would still trade near low-teens P/E even if margins halved. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | -0.35 | Expects Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to surrender gains and turn negative. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @paurooteri | +0.25 | Compares semiconductor competitive positions and doubts Japan could have matched leaders. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.10 | Sees an early rebound in Korean memory stocks but warns Anthropic valuation news may weaken the close. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | +0.40 | Reports rebounds in Nasdaq and KOSPI futures and roughly 4% gains in Korean memory names. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @JonahLupton | +0.80 | Argues 2027 memory-company revenue estimates are too low and highlights SK Hynix's extremely low forward valuation. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @bulioscom | -0.50 | Highlights a severe SK hynix decline as the stream topic. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @EhrmantrautCap_ | +0.35 | Reports an 11% decline while arguing SK hynix is extremely cheap below 3x FY2027 earnings. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @Myeongsu_bean | -0.35 | Notes persistent corporate buying in SK Hynix but questions the large decline despite buybacks. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | @fulllleverage | -0.70 | Korean market recap cites inflation and AI-debt fears amid severe index and semiconductor declines. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | @JesseCohenInv | -0.75 | SK Hynix fell another 11% in Seoul. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | @Kalshi | +0.05 | SK Hynix seeks export approval tied to plans for a new US factory. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | @SOU_BTC | -0.65 | Kioxia, Advantest and SK Hynix posted double-digit declines amid a Japan-Korea selloff. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | @MikeJTrades | -0.65 | Reports a 10% plunge in SK Hynix amid rate and AI-financing fears. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | @fulllleverage | -0.80 | Reports broad Korean-market selling and sharp declines in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | @Myeongsu_bean | +0.55 | Argues SK Hynix remains operationally strong and only its share price is impaired. | — | tweet ↗ |
“Since then” = price move from the close on the signal's date (PT) to the latest close — what happened after they said it, not a backtest. A — means no trading session has closed since the signal yet. Sentiment is our extracted per-tweet score, −1…+1.