The day — 2026-08-28

Friday August 28, 2026 · 5:51AM PT · written before the open · data as of the 5:30am extraction

Growth led Thursday’s tape: QQQ rose 1.4% to 721.11, ahead of SPY’s 0.7% gain to 771.10 and IWM’s 0.3% move to 299.81. Software and security supplied the force. OKTA jumped 28.6% on $1.9 billion in dollar volume, CRM gained 22.6% on $10.1 billion, and CRWD added 20.5% on $4.0 billion; SNPS, PANW, NOW and PATH also rose between 9.4% and 13.4%. MSTR climbed 11.5%. The setup is a market rewarding growth, but with notably narrower participation outside the QQQ complex.

Financial Twitter is chasing NVDA most aggressively: 296 signals carried 95.1 net sentiment, alongside the argument that software has broken to yearly highs with semiconductors. CRM’s 74 signals and 25.7 sentiment fit the price action, but enthusiasm and price disagree elsewhere. IREN drew 152 signals with only 10.5 sentiment amid questions about contract transparency, while MRVL’s underwhelming outlook produced 90 signals and 18.9 sentiment despite an 8% premarket decline. PYPL sentiment is firmly negative at -39.0. BTC remains constructive at 47.6 sentiment, though the discussion includes mining stress. Meanwhile, custom silicon, neocloud capacity, SpaceX proxies and macro hedges are all fading; newer altcoin, cancer-vaccine, autonomy and runner themes have yet to displace them.

Today’s useful map is less about following Thursday’s winners than testing agreement. NOW gained 10.0% and remains the cleanest shared long across the book and three models. RBRK and PURR also have multiple book votes, though RBRK carries a dissenting short from v9n; S is similarly split, while MRVL and IREN have explicit model shorts against active crowd debate. MSTR’s 11.5% rise meets a v9n short, another clean disagreement to watch. The prospect list is quieter: SE is backed by five authors but has moved just 0.9% in five days, ISRG is down 2.0%, and IDN has one signal. BABA’s dilution thesis has six supporters, materially more than the political-risk cases for PLTR and COIN. Finally, sharp book-imbalance reversals in AMC, HSAI, ENVX, ARDX and RXRX deserve attention as trading oddities, not theses.

The desks this morning

The book (consensus, trades at the open): NOW LONG (3/4) · PURR LONG (2/4) · RBRK LONG (2/4)

• v6n: RBRK L · S L · NOW L · AFRM L · PURR L
• v6n2: RBRK L · S S · MRVL S · IREN S · NOW L
• v9n: PURR L · MSTR S · RBRK S · ASST L · NOW L
• modelV31: TTWO L · LITE L · VEEV L · CRCL L · ZETA L

Each seat's own record: Models. Not recommendations.

Market pulse

IWM +0.3% · SPY +0.7% · QQQ +1.4% (session 2026-08-27)

Big liquid movers ($1B+ traded): OKTA +28.6% ($1.9B) · CRM +22.6% ($10.1B) · CRWD +20.5% ($4.0B) · SNPS +13.4% ($1.2B) · PANW +12.8% ($1.4B) · MSTR +11.5% ($4.0B) · NOW +10.0% ($2.6B) · PATH +9.4% ($1.2B)

The crowd's pulse

• NVDA — 296 signals, net +95 — @MarkNewtonCMT↗: “Software broke to yearly highs and is constructively leading alongside semiconductors.” receipt
• IREN — 152 signals, net +10 — @StockSavvyShay↗: “Questions IREN management's contract transparency, including the customer identity and deal value.” receipt
• BTC — 131 signals, net +48 — @TheStalwart↗: “Author argues mining difficulty adjusts to price declines but prolonged declines threaten Bitcoin.” receipt
• PYPL — 115 signals, net -39 — @CNBC↗: “Names stocks making notable premarket moves without giving directions.” receipt
• MRVL — 90 signals, net +19 — @CNBC↗: “Marvell fell 8% after an underwhelming outlook despite 37% revenue growth.” receipt
• CRM — 74 signals, net +26 — @MarkNewtonCMT↗: “Software broke to yearly highs and is constructively leading alongside semiconductors.” receipt

Story ticks: Macro whipsaw and commodity hedges → fade (207 vs ~1075.1/day) · Custom silicon displacement fight → fade (262 vs ~1062.1/day) · SpaceX halo public proxies → fade (171 vs ~800.4/day) · Space liquidity and SpaceX proxies → fade (50 vs ~484.3/day) · Neocloud compute capacity rerating → fade (152 vs ~570.6/day) · Neocloud compute land grab → fade (151 vs ~567.4/day)

Stories — born: Altcoin adoption breakout attempt (ADA, BNB, HYPE, LINK); Cancer vaccine validation rerating (COCP, MRK, MRNA, MRNX); Premarket runners chase liquidity (FIEE, IPST, IVF, MYSZ); Global autos autonomy reset (BYD, F, GM, LCID) · dying: Defense autonomy procurement wave; Premarket microcap squeeze tape; Earnings beat quality screen; Global index breakout breadth

Worth exploring

Prospect Radar (2026-08-28) — research candidates, not signals:

• SE — via @FrameworkWisely↗ (grade A) — Explicitly names SE as the author's preferred current stock purchase. (5 authors / 6 signals · 5d run +0.9% · no listed options) [receipt](tweet ↗)
• ISRG — via @JulienTechInvst↗ (grade A) — Discloses doubling ISRG to 12 shares and fully exiting 40 Uber shares. (2 authors / 3 signals · 5d run -2.0% · no listed options) [receipt](tweet ↗)
• IDN — via @realroseceline↗ (grade A) — Low valuation, cash, margins and profitability support a five-year five-bagger thesis. (1 authors / 1 signals · 5d run +0.0% · no listed options) [receipt](tweet ↗)

New large-if-true hypotheses:

• BABA (bear, large, 6 supporters): Alibaba's $10.2B Hong Kong share placement creates immediate dilution and signals internally generated cash is insufficient for planned AI investment. — @FT↗: “Alibaba announced a $10.2bn equity placement to expand AI investment.”
• PLTR (bear, large, 1 supporters): A Democratic midterm victory could pressure PLTR because its perceived Republican alignment creates material political and procurement risk. — @Myeongsu_bean↗: “A Democratic midterm victory could sharply hurt companies aligned with Republicans.”
• COIN (bear, large, 1 supporters): A Democratic midterm victory could pressure Coinbase because its regulatory outlook and corporate positioning are associated with Republican policy. — @Myeongsu_bean↗: “A Democratic midterm victory could sharply hurt companies publicly aligned with Republicans.”

Oddities

Dealer turbulence (option-book imbalance swings): AMC -0.99→+1.00 · HSAI -1.00→+0.98 · ENVX -1.00→+0.96 · ARDX +1.00→-0.96 · RXRX -0.95→+0.98

The book is long NOW, RBRK, PURR — details on The Book page.

Not investment advice. Every claim above links to its data.

Paper sleeves — 2026-08-28

Bull-confirmation fade (N1, control-basket hedged) · sleeve fade_n1 · spec b1a0c8c6db8d · status accruing · PAPER only — nothing here is traded; the live book is the record.

Live bar (frozen): 30 paper entry sessions, day-clustered t <= -1.5 (net-of-cost event-minus-control, t+5). Adjudicate by 2026-09-30.

Today: 0 new event shorts (+0 hedge-basket legs), 0 entry px settled, 1297 marks, 0 exits at t+5.

Entries this window (short $5k + equal-notional long in the matched control basket):

Excluded today: adv_lt_20m=1, already_open=20, cap_10=27, dedupe5d=66, px_lt_5=2, stale_entry=5.

Open event positions (30):

Grading vs live bar: 8/30 paper entry sessions accrued · 40 events exited at t+5 · day-clustered t = 1.16 (mean net diff +43 bps) · PENDING

*Negative diff = fade working. All rows append-only; provenance=paper; the live book ledger is untouched by construction (preflight write-fence).*