Seat-by-seat evaluation

Models

The four seated models (v6n · v6n2 · v9n · modelV31) plus two shadow challengers, each judged on its own top-5 desk: equal-weight open→close, net of 40 bps per session. Only the four seats vote in The Book; shadow AM histories are current-corpus reconstructions, not live-forward records.

Quantsheets — full model tearsheets & verdict board · design-vs-OOS accrual for every registered book, plus the production-tracked candidates below.

The desks right nownext session 2026-08-31 forming (18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled) · last completed session 2026-08-28 settled below

v6n

attention surprise — share chassis, human-author gates
cum net since 04-27+57%
hit rate51%
last 5
forming · 2026-08-31 session · 18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled
settled · 2026-08-28 session

v6n2

two-flow surprise — shorts only from surging bear flow
cum net since 04-27+131%
hit rate55%
last 5
forming · 2026-08-31 session · 18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled
settled · 2026-08-28 session

v9n

commitment-only two-flow (CD+PD, feeds excluded)
cum net since 04-27-26%
hit rate49%
last 5
forming · 2026-08-31 session · 18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled
settled · 2026-08-28 session

modelV31

credible-breadth consensus — the diversifier seat
cum net since 04-27-17%
hit rate50%
last 5
forming · 2026-08-31 session · 18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled
settled · 2026-08-28 session

v6b

EWMA-baseline surprise — reconstructed shadow challenger
SHADOW · benched 06-30, challenger under seat review
replay context · July +18.2% (not live)
cum net reconstructed since 07-20-13%
hit rate44%
last 5
forming · 2026-08-31 session · 18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled
settled · 2026-08-28 session

v9

commitment-only surprise (CD+PD) — reconstructed shadow challenger
SHADOW · benched 06-30, challenger under seat review
replay context · July +10.8% (not live)
cum net reconstructed since 07-20+22%
hit rate55%
last 5
forming · 2026-08-31 session · 18:00 PT snapshot, unsettled
settled · 2026-08-28 session

Cards show each model's own top-5 (by |score|), independent of the consensus gates. AM rows are canonical (bucket closed 06:15 PT, entry at that session's open, settled at its close). PM preview is the 18:00 PT snapshot of the still-forming bucket — picks can change by morning; previews are kept frozen and settled later so you can audit them. Seat stats include the replay window from 2026-04-27; shadow displays are date-filtered from the 2026-07-18 re-add boundary (first eligible session 2026-07-20) but reconstructed on each AM refresh. The muted July figures are replay context only. Tradeability floor (added 2026-07-26, applied to the full window): picks require a prior-session close ≥ $1 — sub-dollar names are unborrowable/unfillable at size and their prints unreliable (a stale 4-cent quote once booked a fictional −161% 'short loss'). Click a model for its full history, equity curve and methodology.

Production tracking — candidates & instrumentsas of 2026-07-19

Paper/forward accrual only — each track is judged at its own pre-registered clock, not before. Full tearsheets and the verdict board: Quantsheets.

NameKindEvidence so farJudgment clockStatus
Short-vol weekly + latent-catalyst vetopaper book+31.3% OOS (n=13, May-Jun); +35-43%/trade all regimes t~18 historical; known -135% earnings tails PRE-vetojudge after 20 vetoed-era paper formationspaper accruing
Victory-lap outright, risk-on 2x sizing shadowsizing shadowVALIDATED base book +9.1% (May 5-Jul 16) vs SPY +4.6%; specialization cell 2 runs (needs 4)shadow vs static sizing; judge at 4 risk-on episodes post-registrationshadow accruing
Hollow-lap fade (T2b)paper overlayn=25, one quarter, hypothesis-inverted discovery 2026-07-19regrade at n>=60 hollow-lap events or 2 quartersaccruing (n~25)
oiT — tweets direct, OI selectspaper book64.3% hit, +11.8% (Apr 22-Jul 16, n=14) vs SPY +6.0%regrade at n>=40 complete trades (~late Aug)paper accruing (n=14)
U1 orthogonal surface residualinstrumentdaily ledger live since 2026-07-19 (284 names/day)first read after ~40 forward sessionsrecording
T5 regime allocation shadowinstrumentoccupancy 35/48/17%, kill-check PASS; stress episodes 6 (floor 15)judge at >=15 stress episodes; state ledger dailyrecording
N1 fade, IV-high 2x sizing shadowsizing shadowMC3T-T7 sweep 2026-07-19; strongest properly-clustered specialization cellshadow vs static; judge at 4 IV-high episodes post-registrationshadow accruing
CSP-Prime B — forward paper trialpaper bookvirgin -0.3% total BUT 16/23 wks positive; test +34% ann; frozen artifact, no post-hoc repair26 forward weekly cohorts, one look; bars: >=10% ann pace, worst week >-8%, >=55% positive weekspaper accruing from 2026-07-20

Production-tracked candidates (operator 2026-07-19). Paper/forward accrual only; no capital. Judged at each track's pre-registered clock.

Trade historyone table per desk · newest first · last 40 trades each · full history on each model's page

v6n attention surprise — share chassis, human-author gates

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMKLARLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMBNTXSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMUMACSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMSOXSLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMAEHRSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMNOWLONG+4.5%LIVE
2026-08-28AMAFRMLONG-9.7%LIVE
2026-08-28AMSLONG+0.2%LIVE
2026-08-28AMRBRKLONG-6.3%LIVE
2026-08-28AMPYPLSHORT+0.3%LIVE
2026-08-28PMMRNASHORT-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMPURRLONG-8.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMNOWLONG+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMSLONG+0.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMRBRKLONG-6.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMANFLONG+0.7%LIVE
2026-08-27AMSNPSLONG+10.8%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRWDLONG+9.5%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRMLONG+9.6%LIVE
2026-08-27AMOKTALONG+4.1%LIVE
2026-08-27PMPLONG-10.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMOKTALONG+4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMCRMLONG+9.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMANFLONG+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMGRRRLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMZMLONG-1.4%LIVE
2026-08-26AMDKSSHORT-6.4%LIVE
2026-08-26AMINTUSHORT-6.9%LIVE
2026-08-26AMANFLONG+13.1%LIVE
2026-08-26AMSMTCLONG+7.6%LIVE
2026-08-26PMINTUSHORT-6.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMCRMLLONG+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMCILONG-1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMDKSSHORT-6.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMTCLONG+7.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMLITESHORT-3.1%LIVE
2026-08-25AMASSTLONG+12.3%LIVE
2026-08-25AMNVTSLONG-5.0%LIVE
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%LIVE
2026-08-25AMDKSSHORT+12.7%LIVE

v6n2 two-flow surprise — shorts only from surging bear flow

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMMRVLSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMUMACSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMAEHRSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMCLSKSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMLPTHLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMSSHORT-0.2%LIVE
2026-08-28AMIRENSHORT+5.8%LIVE
2026-08-28AMMRVLSHORT+3.8%LIVE
2026-08-28AMRBRKLONG-6.3%LIVE
2026-08-28AMPYPLSHORT+0.3%LIVE
2026-08-28PMNOWLONG+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMANFSHORT-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMMRVLSHORT+3.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMSSHORT-0.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMRBRKLONG-6.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMANFLONG+0.7%LIVE
2026-08-27AMSNPSLONG+10.8%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRWDLONG+9.5%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRMLONG+9.6%LIVE
2026-08-27AMOKTALONG+4.1%LIVE
2026-08-27PMGRRRLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMCRWDLONG+9.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMANFLONG+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMOKTALONG+4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMCRMLONG+9.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMZMLONG-1.4%LIVE
2026-08-26AMSMTCLONG+7.6%LIVE
2026-08-26AMANFLONG+13.1%LIVE
2026-08-26AMINTUSHORT-6.9%LIVE
2026-08-26AMDKSLONG+6.4%LIVE
2026-08-26PMCRMLLONG+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMRLONG-5.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMTCLONG+7.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMINTUSHORT-6.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMDKSLONG+6.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMNVTSLONG-5.0%LIVE
2026-08-25AMASSTSHORT-12.3%LIVE
2026-08-25AMGRRRSHORT-0.9%LIVE
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%LIVE
2026-08-25AMDKSSHORT+12.7%LIVE

v9n commitment-only two-flow (CD+PD, feeds excluded)

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMIRENLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMINFQLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMLPTHLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRVLLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMAFRMSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMASSTLONG-3.0%LIVE
2026-08-28AMIRENSHORT+5.8%LIVE
2026-08-28AMMSTRSHORT+5.0%LIVE
2026-08-28AMRBRKSHORT+6.3%LIVE
2026-08-28AMPURRLONG-8.4%LIVE
2026-08-28PMASSTLONG-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMNOWLONG+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMRBRKLONG-6.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMMSTRSHORT+5.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMPURRLONG-8.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMBESHORT+4.1%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRDOLONG+0.5%LIVE
2026-08-27AMGRRRLONG-1.6%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRWDSHORT-9.5%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRMLONG+9.6%LIVE
2026-08-27PMCRWVLONG-4.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMCRMLONG+9.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMCRWDLONG+9.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMCRDOLONG+0.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMGRRRLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMPURRSHORT+0.2%LIVE
2026-08-26AMLEULONG-2.8%LIVE
2026-08-26AMBMNRSHORT-2.8%LIVE
2026-08-26AMHOODSHORT+1.5%LIVE
2026-08-26AMSMRSHORT+5.9%LIVE
2026-08-26PMSMCILONG-1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMPURRSHORT+0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMBMNRSHORT-2.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMHOODSHORT+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMRSHORT+5.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMHIMSSHORT-1.5%LIVE
2026-08-25AMAAOILONG+1.2%LIVE
2026-08-25AMTEMSHORT-3.2%LIVE
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%LIVE
2026-08-25AMASSTSHORT-12.3%LIVE

modelV31 credible-breadth consensus — the diversifier seat

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMHIMSLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMNOWLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMAMZNLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMAAOILONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMTTWOLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMZETALONG+2.5%LIVE
2026-08-28AMCRCLLONG-5.9%LIVE
2026-08-28AMVEEVLONG-1.2%LIVE
2026-08-28AMLITELONG-4.9%LIVE
2026-08-28AMTTWOLONG-1.5%LIVE
2026-08-28PMNOWLONG+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMCRCLLONG-5.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMZETALONG+2.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMUBERLONG+2.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMTTWOLONG-1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMNOWLONG+6.1%LIVE
2026-08-27AMGRRRLONG-1.6%LIVE
2026-08-27AMTSMLONG+1.0%LIVE
2026-08-27AMMRVLLONG-4.6%LIVE
2026-08-27AMCRDOLONG+0.5%LIVE
2026-08-27PMMULONG-3.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMNOWLONG+6.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMGRRRLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMRKLBLONG+0.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMRVLLONG-4.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMCOINLONG-0.0%LIVE
2026-08-26AMTSMLONG-0.2%LIVE
2026-08-26AMCCJLONG+0.3%LIVE
2026-08-26AMTEMLONG+1.7%LIVE
2026-08-26AMLEULONG-2.8%LIVE
2026-08-26PMASSTLONG+3.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSOFILONG-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMCOINLONG-0.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMCCJLONG+0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMTEMLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMMALONG+0.4%LIVE
2026-08-25AMVLONG+0.8%LIVE
2026-08-25AMNULONG+2.8%LIVE
2026-08-25AMMELILONG+3.1%LIVE
2026-08-25AMZETALONG-0.4%LIVE

v6b EWMA-baseline surprise — reconstructed shadow challenger

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMASSTSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMOKTASHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMANFSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMPURRSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRVLSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMDKSLONG+1.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMANFSHORT-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMPURRLONG-8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMMRVLLONG-3.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMRBRKLONG-6.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28PMDKSLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMRBRKLONG-6.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMMRVLLONG-3.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMPURRLONG-8.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMANFSHORT-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMNVDALONG+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMANFLONG+0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMOKTALONG+4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMCRWDLONG+9.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMCRMLONG+9.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27PMCRMLONG+9.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMRNASHORT+1.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMGRRRLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMDKSLONG+2.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMANFLONG+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMHIMSSHORT+3.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMANFLONG+13.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMCRMLLONG+0.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMSMTCLONG+7.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMDKSSHORT-6.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26PMCRMLLONG+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMBESHORT-1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMNBISSHORT+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMTCLONG+7.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMDKSSHORT-6.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMMRNASHORT-10.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMHIMSSHORT-1.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMTEMSHORT-3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMDKSSHORT+12.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW

v9 commitment-only surprise (CD+PD) — reconstructed shadow challenger

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMIRENLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMNVDASHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRVLLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMSTRSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRNASHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMMRVLLONG-3.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMRBRKLONG-6.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMASSTLONG-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMHOODSHORT+4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMPURRLONG-8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28PMNOWLONG+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMASSTLONG-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMNBISSHORT+1.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMHOODSHORT+4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMPURRLONG-8.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMHOODSHORT+0.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMGRRRLONG-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMMSTRSHORT-8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMMRNASHORT+1.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMNVDALONG+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27PMNVDALONG+2.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMUSHORT+3.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMSNDKSHORT+4.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMNBISSHORT+2.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMRNASHORT+1.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMTEMLONG+1.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMMSTRSHORT+0.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMMUSHORT-1.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMSNDKSHORT-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMNBISSHORT+0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26PMHOODSHORT+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMTEMLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMMSTRSHORT+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMMUSHORT-1.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMNBISSHORT+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMAAOILONG+1.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMMRNALONG+10.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMSNDKSHORT+3.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMNBISSHORT-1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW