Seat-by-seat evaluation

Models

The four seated models (v6n · v6n2 · v9n · modelV31) plus two shadow challengers, each judged on its own top-5 desk: equal-weight open→close, net of 40 bps per session. Only the four seats vote in The Book; shadow AM histories are current-corpus reconstructions, not live-forward records.

Quantsheets — full model tearsheets & verdict board · design-vs-OOS accrual for every registered book, plus the production-tracked candidates below.

Today's picksAM picks — 2026-10-19 session

v6n

attention surprise — share chassis, human-author gates
cum net since 04-27-34%
hit rate48%
last 5
settled · 2026-10-19 session

v6n2

two-flow surprise — shorts only from surging bear flow
cum net since 04-27+289%
hit rate55%
last 5
settled · 2026-10-19 session

v9n

commitment-only two-flow (CD+PD, feeds excluded)
cum net since 04-27-18%
hit rate50%
last 5
settled · 2026-10-19 session

modelV31

credible-breadth consensus — the diversifier seat
cum net since 04-27-31%
hit rate50%
last 5
settled · 2026-10-19 session

v6b

EWMA-baseline surprise — reconstructed shadow challenger
SHADOW · benched 06-30, challenger under seat review
replay context · July +18.2% (not live)
cum net reconstructed since 07-20-41%
hit rate48%
last 5
settled · 2026-10-19 session

v9

commitment-only surprise (CD+PD) — reconstructed shadow challenger
SHADOW · benched 06-30, challenger under seat review
replay context · July +10.8% (not live)
cum net reconstructed since 07-20+2%
hit rate53%
last 5
settled · 2026-10-19 session

Cards show each model's own top-5 (by |score|), independent of the consensus gates. AM rows are canonical (bucket closed 06:15 PT, entry at that session's open, settled at its close). PM preview is the 18:00 PT snapshot of the still-forming bucket — picks can change by morning; previews are kept frozen and settled later so you can audit them. Seat stats include the replay window from 2026-04-27; shadow displays are date-filtered from the 2026-07-18 re-add boundary (first eligible session 2026-07-20) but reconstructed on each AM refresh. The muted July figures are replay context only. Tradeability floor (added 2026-07-26, applied to the full window): picks require a prior-session close ≥ $1 — sub-dollar names are unborrowable/unfillable at size and their prints unreliable (a stale 4-cent quote once booked a fictional −161% 'short loss'). Click a model for its full history, equity curve and methodology.

Production tracking — candidates & instrumentsas of 2026-07-19

Paper/forward accrual only — each track is judged at its own pre-registered clock, not before. Full tearsheets and the verdict board: Quantsheets.

NameKindEvidence so farJudgment clockStatus
Short-vol weekly + latent-catalyst vetopaper book+31.3% OOS (n=13, May-Jun); +35-43%/trade all regimes t~18 historical; known -135% earnings tails PRE-vetojudge after 20 vetoed-era paper formationspaper accruing
Victory-lap outright, risk-on 2x sizing shadowsizing shadowVALIDATED base book +9.1% (May 5-Jul 16) vs SPY +4.6%; specialization cell 2 runs (needs 4)shadow vs static sizing; judge at 4 risk-on episodes post-registrationshadow accruing
Hollow-lap fade (T2b)paper overlayn=25, one quarter, hypothesis-inverted discovery 2026-07-19regrade at n>=60 hollow-lap events or 2 quartersaccruing (n~25)
oiT — tweets direct, OI selectspaper book64.3% hit, +11.8% (Apr 22-Jul 16, n=14) vs SPY +6.0%regrade at n>=40 complete trades (~late Aug)paper accruing (n=14)
U1 orthogonal surface residualinstrumentdaily ledger live since 2026-07-19 (284 names/day)first read after ~40 forward sessionsrecording
T5 regime allocation shadowinstrumentoccupancy 35/48/17%, kill-check PASS; stress episodes 6 (floor 15)judge at >=15 stress episodes; state ledger dailyrecording
N1 fade, IV-high 2x sizing shadowsizing shadowMC3T-T7 sweep 2026-07-19; strongest properly-clustered specialization cellshadow vs static; judge at 4 IV-high episodes post-registrationshadow accruing
CSP-Prime B — forward paper trialpaper bookvirgin -0.3% total BUT 16/23 wks positive; test +34% ann; frozen artifact, no post-hoc repair26 forward weekly cohorts, one look; bars: >=10% ann pace, worst week >-8%, >=55% positive weekspaper accruing from 2026-07-20

Production-tracked candidates (operator 2026-07-19). Paper/forward accrual only; no capital. Judged at each track's pre-registered clock.

Trade historyone table per desk · newest first · last 40 trades each · full history on each model's page

v6n attention surprise — share chassis, human-author gates

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-10-19AMCRWVSHORT+7.2%LIVE
2026-10-19AMTWLOSHORT-3.3%LIVE
2026-10-19AMDOCNSHORT+2.6%LIVE
2026-10-19AMSATSSHORT+-0.0%LIVE
2026-10-19AMBSPSHORT+4.0%LIVE
2026-10-19PMCRWVSHORT+7.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMLINKLONG-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMAAOISHORT+2.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMPBRLONG-1.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMRXRXSHORT-2.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-16AMSOXLLONG-7.4%LIVE
2026-10-16AMFIGRLONG-1.8%LIVE
2026-10-16AMWULFLONG-4.9%LIVE
2026-10-16AMBSPSHORT+14.2%LIVE
2026-10-16AMRXRXLONG-15.8%LIVE
2026-10-15AMIBRXLONG-1.8%LIVE
2026-10-15AMOPENSHORT-18.7%LIVE
2026-10-15AMCRWVSHORT-13.4%LIVE
2026-10-15AMNCPLLONG-2.0%LIVE
2026-10-15AMBSPLONG+7.3%LIVE
2026-10-15PMWYFISHORT-8.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMEOSESHORT-16.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMIBRXLONG-1.8%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMBRUNSHORT-9.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMCRWVSHORT-13.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-14AMAMCLONG-4.6%LIVE
2026-10-14AMCRWVSHORT+8.4%LIVE
2026-10-14AMASMLLONG-1.6%LIVE
2026-10-14AMAIXISHORT-4.0%LIVE
2026-10-14AMLQDALONG-4.7%LIVE
2026-10-13AMJNJLONG-2.3%LIVE
2026-10-13AMCLONG-5.2%LIVE
2026-10-13AMFORMLONG+0.4%LIVE
2026-10-13AMAAOISHORT-0.3%LIVE
2026-10-13AMNVTSLONG+4.7%LIVE
2026-10-13PMNCPLSHORT+14.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMAAOISHORT-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMNVTSLONG+4.7%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMFICOLONG-2.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMFORMLONG+0.4%PREVIEW

v6n2 two-flow surprise — shorts only from surging bear flow

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-10-19AMTWLOSHORT-3.3%LIVE
2026-10-19AMOKTASHORT+0.2%LIVE
2026-10-19AMSNOWSHORT-0.4%LIVE
2026-10-19AMSOXLLONG-5.1%LIVE
2026-10-19AMBSPSHORT+4.0%LIVE
2026-10-19PMTWLOSHORT-3.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMPBRLONG-1.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMOKTASHORT+0.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMSNOWSHORT-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMSOXLLONG-5.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-16AMMSTRSHORT+6.3%LIVE
2026-10-16AMWULFLONG-4.9%LIVE
2026-10-16AMLQDASHORT+1.2%LIVE
2026-10-16AMVICRSHORT+10.9%LIVE
2026-10-16AMRXRXLONG-15.8%LIVE
2026-10-15AMRKLBSHORT-2.6%LIVE
2026-10-15AMIBRXLONG-1.8%LIVE
2026-10-15AMCRWVLONG+13.4%LIVE
2026-10-15AMNCPLLONG-2.0%LIVE
2026-10-15AMBSPLONG+7.3%LIVE
2026-10-15PMDELLSHORT-0.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMMRNALONG+4.9%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMRKLBSHORT-2.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMIBRXLONG-1.8%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMCRWVSHORT-13.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-14AMPLSHORT+5.3%LIVE
2026-10-14AMGTLBSHORT-5.2%LIVE
2026-10-14AMAMATSHORT+1.7%LIVE
2026-10-14AMCRWVSHORT+8.4%LIVE
2026-10-14AMLQDALONG-4.7%LIVE
2026-10-13AMJNJLONG-2.3%LIVE
2026-10-13AMNVTSLONG+4.7%LIVE
2026-10-13AMAAOISHORT-0.3%LIVE
2026-10-13AMLITESHORT-1.7%LIVE
2026-10-13AMNCPLSHORT+14.2%LIVE
2026-10-13PMFORMLONG+0.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMNVTSLONG+4.7%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMCIENSHORT-1.8%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMAAOISHORT-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMNCPLSHORT+14.2%PREVIEW

v9n commitment-only two-flow (CD+PD, feeds excluded)

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-10-19AMAAOISHORT+2.2%LIVE
2026-10-19AMSOXLLONG-5.1%LIVE
2026-10-19AMAPLDSHORT+0.8%LIVE
2026-10-19AMMRVLSHORT+1.2%LIVE
2026-10-19AMSHOPSHORT+0.3%LIVE
2026-10-19PMSOXLLONG-5.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMAPLDSHORT+0.8%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMAAOISHORT+2.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMMRVLSHORT+1.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMSHOPSHORT+0.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-16AMTEAMLONG-5.1%LIVE
2026-10-16AMOPENLONG-7.8%LIVE
2026-10-16AMCRWVLONG-5.9%LIVE
2026-10-16AMRKLBSHORT+6.7%LIVE
2026-10-16AMABBVSHORT-0.6%LIVE
2026-10-15AMIRENSHORT-5.2%LIVE
2026-10-15AMNBISLONG+7.4%LIVE
2026-10-15AMAAOISHORT-3.5%LIVE
2026-10-15AMWULFSHORT-14.9%LIVE
2026-10-15AMCRWVLONG+13.4%LIVE
2026-10-15PMCOHRSHORT-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMSOXLLONG+9.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMOUSTLONG+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMMARASHORT-4.0%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMCRWVLONG+13.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-14AMKEELSHORT+7.3%LIVE
2026-10-14AMCRWVSHORT+8.4%LIVE
2026-10-14AMCIFRSHORT+7.4%LIVE
2026-10-14AMWULFSHORT+8.3%LIVE
2026-10-14AMLQDALONG-4.7%LIVE
2026-10-13AMNOWSHORT+1.1%LIVE
2026-10-13AMSOXLSHORT-7.7%LIVE
2026-10-13AMPANWSHORT+0.1%LIVE
2026-10-13AMPENGSHORT-2.4%LIVE
2026-10-13AMMUUSHORT-4.4%LIVE
2026-10-13PMNBISLONG+2.9%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMWYFISHORT-2.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMNOWSHORT+1.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMAXTILONG+6.5%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMPENGSHORT-2.4%PREVIEW

modelV31 credible-breadth consensus — the diversifier seat

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-10-19AMCRWDSHORT+2.6%LIVE
2026-10-19AMNKELONG+0.1%LIVE
2026-10-19AMINTCLONG-2.6%LIVE
2026-10-19AMAMZNLONG+2.7%LIVE
2026-10-19AMHIMSLONG-1.2%LIVE
2026-10-19PMCRWDSHORT+2.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMNKELONG+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMINTCLONG-2.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMAMZNLONG+2.7%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMHIMSLONG-1.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-16AMASMLLONG-1.0%LIVE
2026-10-16AMMALONG-0.3%LIVE
2026-10-16AMAVGOLONG-2.9%LIVE
2026-10-16AMZETALONG-9.5%LIVE
2026-10-16AMUNHLONG-2.2%LIVE
2026-10-15AMIONQSHORT-12.5%LIVE
2026-10-15AMCRWVSHORT-13.4%LIVE
2026-10-15AMOPENSHORT-18.7%LIVE
2026-10-15AMXLVLONG+0.3%LIVE
2026-10-15AMUNHLONG+1.3%LIVE
2026-10-15PMIONQSHORT-12.5%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMORCLSHORT-5.0%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMUNHLONG+1.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMXLVLONG+0.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMOPENSHORT-18.7%PREVIEW
2026-10-14AMASMLLONG-1.6%LIVE
2026-10-14AMRKLBLONG-5.8%LIVE
2026-10-14AMZETALONG-3.2%LIVE
2026-10-14AMMAGSLONG-1.8%LIVE
2026-10-14AMHIMSLONG-5.3%LIVE
2026-10-13AMONDSLONG+3.3%LIVE
2026-10-13AMXLELONG+1.1%LIVE
2026-10-13AMUNHLONG-5.0%LIVE
2026-10-13AMMELILONG+0.0%LIVE
2026-10-13AMOKLOSHORT-1.1%LIVE
2026-10-13PMCIFRLONG+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMMETALONG+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMVLONG+0.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMONDSLONG+3.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMMELILONG+0.0%PREVIEW

v6b EWMA-baseline surprise — reconstructed shadow challenger

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-10-19AMMRNASHORT-4.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMRXRXSHORT-2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMAAOISHORT+2.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMNBISSHORT+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMBSPSHORT+4.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19PMHIMSSHORT+1.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMMRNASHORT-4.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMRXRXSHORT-2.3%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMNBISSHORT+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMAAOISHORT+2.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-16AMWULFLONG-4.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMCRWVLONG-5.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMNBISLONG-8.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMBMBLSHORT+-0.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMBSPSHORT+14.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMLQDASHORT+0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMAAOISHORT-3.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMNCPLLONG-2.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMBSPLONG+7.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMCRWVSHORT-13.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15PMASTSSHORT-9.0%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMNBISSHORT-7.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMAAOISHORT-3.5%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMLQDASHORT+0.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMCRWVSHORT-13.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-14AMLITESHORT+6.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMMRNASHORT-4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMASMLLONG-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMCRWVSHORT+8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMLQDALONG-4.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMMETALONG+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMNBISSHORT-2.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMMRNASHORT-4.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMLITESHORT-1.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMAAOISHORT-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13PMMETALONG+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMNBISSHORT-2.9%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMBESHORT-4.7%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMMRNASHORT-4.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMAAOISHORT-0.3%PREVIEW

v9 commitment-only surprise (CD+PD) — reconstructed shadow challenger

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-10-19AMSOXLLONG-5.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMMUSHORT+0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMNBISSHORT+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMIRENSHORT+2.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19AMAAOISHORT+2.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-19PMSOXLLONG-5.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMMUSHORT+0.9%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMNBISSHORT+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMIRENSHORT+2.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-19PMAAOISHORT+2.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-16AMWULFLONG-4.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMPLTRSHORT+7.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMAAOISHORT+9.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMCRWVLONG-5.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-16AMNBISLONG-8.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMASTSSHORT-9.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMAAOILONG+3.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMRKLBLONG+2.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMCRWVSHORT-13.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15AMNBISLONG+7.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-15PMPLTRSHORT-2.1%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMNBISLONG+7.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMAAOISHORT-3.5%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMCRWVSHORT-13.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-15PMASTSSHORT-9.0%PREVIEW
2026-10-14AMPLTRSHORT+2.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMCRDOSHORT+6.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMCRWVSHORT+8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMLQDALONG-4.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-14AMAAOISHORT+9.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMIRENSHORT-4.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMRKLBSHORT-0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMMRNASHORT-4.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMASTSSHORT+2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13AMAAOISHORT-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-10-13PMMSTRSHORT+0.6%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMPLTRSHORT-0.2%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMPENGSHORT-2.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMIRENSHORT-4.4%PREVIEW
2026-10-13PMASTSSHORT+2.7%PREVIEW