Author

@adam_tooze adam_tooze

Economic historian threading macro events through long-run history and capital-flow mechanics

Publishes original macro commentary and frameworks linking c

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
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Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.6% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).

Recent signals12receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-01·@adam_tooze·Promotes chartbook on China shock 2.0 and financial repression implications for Europe.·
2026-07-01·@adam_tooze·Macro framework on China, Europe greentech, and AI capital barriers.·
2026-07-01·@adam_tooze·Newsletter framing AI boom and Chinese financial barriers as world economy theme.·
2026-06-30·@adam_tooze·States frontier markets face nasty rates despite no wider spreads.·
2026-06-28·@adam_tooze·Discusses broader Germany/Europe case but without standalone investment signal.·
2026-06-28·@adam_tooze·Frames issue as sectoral industrial policy rather than exchange-rate issue.·
2026-06-28·@adam_tooze·Discusses China Shock 2.0 to Europe and whether data supports a sectoral view.·
2026-06-28·@adam_tooze·Long-form macro frame on China shock 2.0, mercantilism and Germany.·
2026-06-27JPM@adam_tooze+0.30Highlights JP Morgan as distinct from Wall Street using FT source.+1.6%
2026-06-26·@adam_tooze·Frames data-center boom as a third inflation wave and questions AI productivity timing.·
2026-06-23·@adam_tooze·Says stock market is about to digest a lot of new equity, citing Bloomberg.·
2026-06-19·@adam_tooze·States about three quarters of China's manufacturing production is sold domestically.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.