@AlexfromBabylon AlexfromBabylon
High-conviction anon retail analyst all-in on a concentrated space/AI-infra small-cap basket
Writes original, mechanistic long theses and forward buy/hol
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-08-16.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -1.70% mean alpha, trader score -2.42. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -7.3% since posting (mean over 46 mentions with price data).
The author remains heavily bullish ASTS and reported reallocating part of an NBIS position into ASTS and IREN. The distinctive view is that Starlink competition strengthens ASTS's wholesale MNO architecture, while NBIS and IREN offer superior neocloud exposure versus CRWV. Late in the window, the author trimmed NBIS by 15% and added to IREN and ASTS without abandoning the long-term NBIS thesis.
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN warranted additional capital funded by trimming 15% of the author's NBIS position. | IREN | ▲ | 1.00 | 3 | ✓ | IREN valuation and AI-cloud oper | tweet ↗ |
| IREN can become meaningful AI-cloud infrastructure capable of supporting future model training. | IREN | ▲ | 0.24 | 2 | ✓ | IREN valuation and AI-cloud oper | tweet ↗ |
| IREN is undervalued near book value as AI demand improves its outlook despite prior dilution and weak communication. | IREN | ▲ | 0.22 | 5 | ✓ | IREN valuation and AI-cloud oper | tweet ↗ |
| NBIS capacity growth, pricing and short payback periods validate attractive data-center economics. | NBIS | ▲ | 0.15 | 6 | ✓ | Neocloud capacity economics and | tweet ↗ |
| NBIS project progress remains intact despite permitting friction and a low-cost stop-work penalty. | NBIS | ▲ | 0.12 | 2 | ✓ | Neocloud capacity economics and | tweet ↗ |
| NBIS is a preferred long-term neocloud operator, supported by owned infrastructure and flexible capacity contracting. | NBIS | ▲ | 0.10 | 5 | ✓ | Neocloud capacity economics and | tweet ↗ |
| ASTS launch bookings, satellite targets and funded defense awards materially reduce execution risk. | ASTS | ▲ | 0.09 | 6 | ✓ | Satellite connectivity architect | tweet ↗ |
| ASTS revenue and valuation should far exceed conservative cases, supported by mobile, IoT, defense and MNO opportunities. | ASTS | ▲ | 0.07 | 4 | ✓ | Satellite connectivity architect | tweet ↗ |
| CRWV has an inferior long-term neocloud strategy relative to NBIS and IREN. | CRWV | ▼ | 0.04 | 3 | · | Neocloud capacity economics and | tweet ↗ |
| RKLB Neutron's first launch likely slips into 2027 as production, integration and testing constrain timing. | RKLB | ▼ | 0.02 | 3 | · | Satellite connectivity architect | tweet ↗ |
| ASTS wholesale MNO architecture gains strategic leverage as Starlink becomes a stronger competing operator. | ASTS | ▲ | 0.02 | 4 | ✓ | Satellite connectivity architect | tweet ↗ |
ASTS conviction remained consistently bullish and highly concentrated, with the author adding capital late in the window; its 74% share of the satellite theme warrants a pump-risk flag. IREN conviction intensified through a funded addition, while NBIS conviction faded at the margin after a 15% trim despite the author retaining a bullish long-term thesis. RKLB remained the principal bearish or cautious satellite call because of expected Neutron delays.
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 55 | +0.61 | 2 | 1 | 1 | long call | ✓ long (has position) |
| NBIS | 26 | +0.49 | 1 | 2 | 2 | long call | mismatch |
| IREN | 13 | +0.53 | 0 | 1 | 0 | hold disclosed | ✓ long (has position) |
| RKLB | 12 | +0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPCX | 10 | -0.30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | short call | no position bear call |
| TMUS | 6 | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | tactical | neutral |
| VSAT | 4 | -0.17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MDA | 2 | +0.50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| CRWV | 1 | -0.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | ASTS | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.15 | Speculates ASTS will eventually replace Indian composite deliveries with in-house production. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.80 | Buying as much IREN as possible without reducing core holdings. — Explicitly says the author tried to buy as much IREN as possible while preserving core positions. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NBIS | @AlexfromBabylon | -0.65 | Calls investing in small, unlevered neoclouds such as NBIS and IREN an unwise idea. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | -0.65 | Calls investing in small, unlevered neoclouds such as NBIS and IREN an unwise idea. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.65 | Dismisses bearish social-media claims and urges attention to positive real-world signs. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.65 | Says IREN's capital flywheel is visible and awaits market recognition. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.25 | Positively endorses IREN recap content without restating details. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NBIS | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.80 | Doubled IREN and expects a 3x-plus return before end-2027. — Discloses doubling IREN with explicit portfolio weights and long-term targets. | -4.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.90 | Doubled IREN and expects a 3x-plus return before end-2027. — Discloses doubling IREN with explicit portfolio weights and long-term targets. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | CRWV | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.30 | Doubled IREN and expects a 3x-plus return before end-2027. — Discloses doubling IREN with explicit portfolio weights and long-term targets. | -3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ASTS | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.65 | Mocks ASTS bears as poorly informed, expressing a bullish stance. | -5.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.15 | Cites IREN's FY27 capex forecast of about $25B-$30B. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | -0.30 | Questions whether major capacity is delayed until Q4 2027. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NBIS | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.80 | Argues NBIS retains substantial 2027 enterprise capacity upside while awaiting IREN execution. | -4.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @AlexfromBabylon | +0.20 | Argues NBIS retains substantial 2027 enterprise capacity upside while awaiting IREN execution. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.