Author · brief 2026-07-03

@AlexfromBabylon AlexfromBabylon

grade Bx.com/AlexfromBabylon ↗

High-conviction anon retail analyst all-in on a concentrated space/AI-infra small-cap basket

Writes original, mechanistic long theses and forward buy/hol

trader score
+3.15
hit rate
65%
mean α
+3.44%
signals 14d
121

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-07-03.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, +3.44% mean alpha, trader score +3.15. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +5.3% since posting (mean over 102 mentions with price data).

ASTS and RKLB longs dominate while IREN trust breaks

The author is chiefly pressing ASTS as a long-term satellite-to-phone/J-LEO winner and RKLB as a newly larger space infrastructure platform after the Iridium-related thesis. Their distinctive read is that NBIS has better product-led neocloud execution than IREN, whose management, dilution, compensation, and marketing spend drove repeated exits despite one brief LEAPS re-entry. Late in the window, they again planned to sell IREN while keeping constructive focus on ASTS, RKLB, and NBIS.

Themes4analyst read · 2026-07-03
▲ASTS satellite-to-phone and J-LEO adoption
bullfading51 signals
ASTSPL
⚠ 98% of theme signals are ASTS — flag pump risk
◆Rocket Lab space infrastructure expansion
mixedintensifying21 signals
RKLBMDAVSATSPCX
⚠ 76% of theme signals are RKLB — flag pump risk
◆Neocloud management quality and product execution
mixedfading47 signals
NBISIRENMETANVDAPLTR
⚠ 49% of theme signals are NBIS — flag pump risk
◆Deep-tech culture as investment filter
mixedfading110 signals
ASTSRKLBNBISPLTRIREN
⚠ 45% of theme signals are ASTS — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in ASTS and RKLB, with ASTS dominating the signal set and creating clear pump-risk concentration. The author flipped repeatedly on IREN: exited on June 25, re-entered through LEAPS on June 30, then planned to sell again on July 2 over management distrust, dilution, and compensation concerns. NBIS remained the preferred neocloud comparison, framed as more product-led and better aligned with enterprise AI workload growth.

Position disclosures7skin in the game
ASTS May roll reduced IREN capital into AST while favoring NBIS vision unclear
IREN Reduced IREN position and considered further selling or rolling proceeds into AST trimmed
NBIS Favored NBIS vision while discussing reduced IREN exposure held
IREN Sold out after criticizing sports marketing spend and shareholder ATM exited
ASTS Bought ASTS using proceeds from selling IREN added
IREN Explained IREN exit due to sports marketing strategy and management concerns exited
RKLB Disclosed being a proud RKLB shareholder held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
▲Japan J-LEO award to Rakuten and ASTS validates direct-to-cell technology and should force a material rerating.
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
▲MRLN's C-130J Critical Design Review with USSOCOM is a discrete positive milestone that de-risks the autonomy program.
bullLOW10 co-supporters
▲The Iridium acquisition transforms RKLB into a vertically integrated space communications platform with recurring revenu
bullHIGH8 co-supporters
▲Montega’s AUD18 target raise and Buy rating provide external validation for upside after the order and JV announcements.
bullMEDIUM2 co-supporters
▲BRUN’s disclosed NBIS customer relationship, $2.4B contract and ARR guidance materially improve business validation.
bullHIGH5 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03PL@AlexfromBabylon+0.20Says ASTS and Planet are using AST-style launch playbook.—
2026-07-03ASTS@AlexfromBabylon+0.20Says ASTS and Planet are using AST-style launch playbook.—
2026-07-03IREN@AlexfromBabylon-0.35Skeptical of IREN as a legacy bitcoin miner pivot, though says stock could still work.—
2026-07-02ASTS@AlexfromBabylon+0.30Suggests market participants missed ASTS memo, with bullish wink tone.—
2026-07-02IREN@AlexfromBabylon+0.35Says hires are great for IREN as a company in transition.—
2026-07-02ASTS@AlexfromBabylon+0.55Bullish narrative that AST SpaceMobile will gain mainstream recognition over coming year.—
2026-07-02NBIS@AlexfromBabylon+0.75Calls news very bullish for NBIS open source play.—
2026-07-02NBIS@AlexfromBabylon+0.65Says founder-CPO structure is a strategic advantage for executing NBIS vision.—
2026-07-02IREN@AlexfromBabylon-0.60Compares NBIS favorably to IREN management and compensation practices in neoclouds.—
2026-07-02NBIS@AlexfromBabylon+0.70Compares NBIS favorably to IREN management and compensation practices in neoclouds.—
2026-07-02IREN@AlexfromBabylon-0.90Going to sell small IREN position at the open — Explicitly plans to sell IREN due to distrust of management and dilution/pay package concerns.—
2026-07-02ASTS@AlexfromBabylon+0.50Going to sell small IREN position at the open — Explicitly plans to sell IREN due to distrust of management and dilution/pay package concerns.—
2026-07-02NBIS@AlexfromBabylon+0.70Going to sell small IREN position at the open — Explicitly plans to sell IREN due to distrust of management and dilution/pay package concerns.—
2026-07-02RKLB@AlexfromBabylon+0.50Going to sell small IREN position at the open — Explicitly plans to sell IREN due to distrust of management and dilution/pay package concerns.—
2026-07-01ASTS@AlexfromBabylon+0.55Expects Taiwan Mobile x AST SpaceMobile to follow Japan JV template.-1.1%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.