Author

@AndrewMayne AndrewMayne

Transparent ex-OpenAI insider reasoning publicly on AI capability and labor macro

Posts reply-driven commentary and macro frameworks on fronti

trader score
-0.62
hit rate
42%
mean α
-0.47%
signals 14d
13

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 12 scored bets: 42% hit rate, -0.47% mean alpha, trader score -0.62. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.8% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).

Recent signals13receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27·@AndrewMayne·Argues automation will create new work and that restrictive policy would reduce output and make society poorer.·
2026-08-27·@AndrewMayne·Argues AI will create new work and that restrictive policies would reduce prosperity.·
2026-08-26·@AndrewMayne·Argues AI complements labor and favors education, retraining, and business formation.·
2026-08-26·@AndrewMayne·Argues prosperity requires expanding output and that restrictive policy raises costs.·
2026-08-21TSLA@AndrewMayne-0.40Questions Musk's promises and expects satellite inference, not true data-center compute.-3.9%
2026-08-20NVDA@AndrewMayne-0.20Argues orbital AI racks are uneconomic and latency-constrained versus terrestrial compute.+0.3%
2026-08-20TSLA@AndrewMayne-0.25Argues orbital GPU data centers are uneconomic and likens them to a Tesla publicity stunt.+1.0%
2026-08-17·@AndrewMayne·Argues current language models retain detectable house styles and weak style imitation.·
2026-08-17·@AndrewMayne·Claims models cannot reliably select superior stylistic word choices.·
2026-08-17·@AndrewMayne·Argues forced watermarking worsens already weak style emulation by models.·
2026-08-17·@AndrewMayne·Uses documentation evidence to argue models miss conscious stylistic distinctions.·
2026-08-17·@AndrewMayne·Explains how individual writing styles undermine statistical text watermarking.·
2026-08-17·@AndrewMayne·Identifies regional and personal word choice as a core weakness in text watermarking.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.