Author
@AntonLaVay AntonLaVay
grade Ax.com/AntonLaVay ↗
Mechanistic AI supply-chain hunter and crypto-options quant with disclosed, high-conviction positions
Original bottom-up and supply-chain research on AI infrastru
trader score
-0.31
hit rate
45%
mean α
-0.23%
signals 14d
112
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.23% mean alpha, trader score -0.31. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +5.5% since posting (mean over 63 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Claims an October 7 warning could have avoided subsequent losses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Argues Red Sea and Houthi incentives make continued regional conflict likely. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | SPY | @AntonLaVay | -0.65 | Describes weak breadth and a recent collapse in concentrated AI leadership near SPY highs. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Rejects reliance on repeated expectations of policy de-escalation affecting refiners. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | XLE | @AntonLaVay | +0.55 | Will stop out of QQQ soon and retain only refiners and XLE. — Signals an imminent QQQ stop and continued holding of energy exposure. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | QQQ | @AntonLaVay | -0.75 | Will stop out of QQQ soon and retain only refiners and XLE. — Signals an imminent QQQ stop and continued holding of energy exposure. | -0.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Warns that falling IV during high-beta rebounds can reflect capital exiting rather than accumulation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Explains how an OTM call can suffer a severe IV collapse after a high-beta stock crash. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | COIN | @AntonLaVay | +0.10 | Detailed framework warns against buying high-beta calls without analyzing volatility surfaces. | -10.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SPY | @AntonLaVay | +0.00 | Argues high-beta losses were too narrow to explain major safe-haven flows into Treasuries. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | QQQ | @AntonLaVay | -0.25 | Argues high-beta losses were too narrow to explain major safe-haven flows into Treasuries. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ARKG | @AntonLaVay | +0.45 | Maintains confidence in biotech fundamentals and notes ARKG fell less than semiconductors. | -2.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | QQQ | @AntonLaVay | +0.55 | States the author is positioned for a possible QQQ rebound and rejects Warsh as added bearish news. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | XLE | @AntonLaVay | +0.20 | Bought some QQQ for a rebound from an important support area. — Reports buying QQQ because concentrated negative catalysts have cleared and support may hold. | +4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | QQQ | @AntonLaVay | +0.65 | Bought some QQQ for a rebound from an important support area. — Reports buying QQQ because concentrated negative catalysts have cleared and support may hold. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.