Author · brief 2026-06-22

@AntonLaVay AntonLaVay

Mechanistic AI supply-chain hunter and crypto-options quant with disclosed, high-conviction positions

Original bottom-up and supply-chain research on AI infrastru

trader score
-1.26
hit rate
35%
mean α
-1.48%
signals 14d
63

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -1.48% mean alpha, trader score -1.26. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -7.3% since posting (mean over 30 mentions with price data).

Zhipu pivot dominates amid memory and macro optimism

AntonLaVay’s clearest live trade is a pivot into HK:2513/Zhipu, funded partly by selling half of SPCX, while Kioxia remains their largest disclosed single holding. The distinctive read is a China-tech rotation frame spanning GLM/Zhipu, memory, semis, MLCC and optical interconnect, with crypto options tooling discussed as process rather than a directional BTC call. Late-week activity centers on adding/promoting 2513 while SPCX commentary turns more mixed after earlier bullishness.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Zhipu GLM Hong Kong AI long
bullintensifying15 signals
2513.HKSPCX
⚠ 60% of theme signals are SPCX — flag pump risk
SPCX margin friction and speculative unwind
mixedintensifying10 signals
⚠ 90% of theme signals are SPCX — flag pump risk
Memory and China technology supply chain rotation
bullconsistent3 signals
KIOXIAAEHR
⚠ 67% of theme signals are KIOXIA — flag pump risk
Macro oil inflation and market-risk framework
bullconsistent1 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are SPX — flag pump risk
Crypto options tooling and BTC volatility process
neutralconsistent2 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are BTC — flag pump risk
Direction this week

The author’s week shifts from noisy SPCX commentary toward a concentrated 2513.HK/Zhipu long, including explicit buying, promotion intent, and a directional buy call. SPCX fades from earlier excitement into admitted losses, margin frustration, and a half-position sale to fund 2513.HK, while Kioxia remains a consistent largest-holding disclosure. Concentration is highest in 2513.HK and SPCX, so both carry pump-risk or crowding flags despite the broader China-tech and memory framework.

Position disclosures6skin in the game
2513.HK Bought Zhipu 2513 overnight after reading tweets added
KIOXIA Kioxia disclosed as their largest single holding held
2513.HK Bought GLM/Zhipu stock and plans to promote it personally added
2513.HK Held 2513 for more than a day and funded it with SPCX sale held
SPCX Sold half of SPCX to fund 2513.HK exposure trimmed
KIOXIA Kioxia again disclosed as their largest single holding held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
Geopolitical escalation and Hormuz complacency leave oil and XLE with valuable upside hedge characteristics.
bullMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Stalling US-Iran negotiations and Hormuz disruption risk can sustain an oil risk premium and push crude higher.
bullMEDIUM4 co-supporters
Advanced packaging, metrology, and glass substrate adoption expand the semicap demand pool for AMAT-related equipment su
bullMEDIUM2 co-supporters
AI compute density is forcing power-stack redesigns, making Vicor a beneficiary of next-generation AI infrastructure.
bullMEDIUM5 co-supporters
Pullbacks into support or moving averages are opportunities to build long exposure rather than exit the thesis.
bullMEDIUM10 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03BTC@AntonLaVay+0.25Says BTC skew repaired from extreme downside-hedging sentiment.·
2026-07-01·@AntonLaVay·Says interesting and added to watchlist, but no ticker visible.·
2026-07-01·@AntonLaVay·Says investment theme is now following memory manufacturers' money.·
2026-06-30FORM@AntonLaVay+0.20Says FORM remains on the author's watchlist.-22.7%
2026-06-30ALAB@AntonLaVay+0.15Says an article can help readers understand ALAB.-15.9%
2026-06-30PENG@AntonLaVay+0.35Discusses CXL/equipment stock theme and says these concepts have been strong.-19.1%
2026-06-30ALAB@AntonLaVay+0.35Discusses CXL/equipment stock theme and says these concepts have been strong.-15.9%
2026-06-30DRAM@AntonLaVay+0.35Discusses CXL/equipment stock theme and says these concepts have been strong.·
2026-06-30ALAB@AntonLaVay+0.45Urges ALAB to accelerate, implying bullish impatience.-15.9%
2026-06-30BTC@AntonLaVay+0.15Long framework comparing BTC options strategies, risk, return and drawdowns.·
2026-06-29ALAB@AntonLaVay+0.45Says ALAB remains strong as always.-10.9%
2026-06-29DRAM@AntonLaVay+0.55Argues fundamental bearishness on memory is absurd due to supply-demand imbalance and profit surge.·
2026-06-29·@AntonLaVay·Framework that expansion equipment benefits from GPU, memory, photonics and CPU capex.·
2026-06-29IGV@AntonLaVay+0.30Notes equipment stocks and SaaS strong while DRAM pulls back.+4.1%
2026-06-29DRAM@AntonLaVay-0.15Notes equipment stocks and SaaS strong while DRAM pulls back.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.