@AntonLaVay AntonLaVay
Mechanistic AI supply-chain hunter and crypto-options quant with disclosed, high-conviction positions
Original bottom-up and supply-chain research on AI infrastru
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -1.48% mean alpha, trader score -1.26. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -7.3% since posting (mean over 30 mentions with price data).
AntonLaVay’s clearest live trade is a pivot into HK:2513/Zhipu, funded partly by selling half of SPCX, while Kioxia remains their largest disclosed single holding. The distinctive read is a China-tech rotation frame spanning GLM/Zhipu, memory, semis, MLCC and optical interconnect, with crypto options tooling discussed as process rather than a directional BTC call. Late-week activity centers on adding/promoting 2513 while SPCX commentary turns more mixed after earlier bullishness.
The author’s week shifts from noisy SPCX commentary toward a concentrated 2513.HK/Zhipu long, including explicit buying, promotion intent, and a directional buy call. SPCX fades from earlier excitement into admitted losses, margin frustration, and a half-position sale to fund 2513.HK, while Kioxia remains a consistent largest-holding disclosure. Concentration is highest in 2513.HK and SPCX, so both carry pump-risk or crowding flags despite the broader China-tech and memory framework.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | BTC | @AntonLaVay | +0.25 | Says BTC skew repaired from extreme downside-hedging sentiment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Says interesting and added to watchlist, but no ticker visible. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Says investment theme is now following memory manufacturers' money. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | FORM | @AntonLaVay | +0.20 | Says FORM remains on the author's watchlist. | -22.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ALAB | @AntonLaVay | +0.15 | Says an article can help readers understand ALAB. | -15.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | PENG | @AntonLaVay | +0.35 | Discusses CXL/equipment stock theme and says these concepts have been strong. | -19.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ALAB | @AntonLaVay | +0.35 | Discusses CXL/equipment stock theme and says these concepts have been strong. | -15.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | DRAM | @AntonLaVay | +0.35 | Discusses CXL/equipment stock theme and says these concepts have been strong. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ALAB | @AntonLaVay | +0.45 | Urges ALAB to accelerate, implying bullish impatience. | -15.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | BTC | @AntonLaVay | +0.15 | Long framework comparing BTC options strategies, risk, return and drawdowns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | ALAB | @AntonLaVay | +0.45 | Says ALAB remains strong as always. | -10.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | DRAM | @AntonLaVay | +0.55 | Argues fundamental bearishness on memory is absurd due to supply-demand imbalance and profit surge. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @AntonLaVay | · | Framework that expansion equipment benefits from GPU, memory, photonics and CPU capex. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | IGV | @AntonLaVay | +0.30 | Notes equipment stocks and SaaS strong while DRAM pulls back. | +4.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | DRAM | @AntonLaVay | -0.15 | Notes equipment stocks and SaaS strong while DRAM pulls back. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.