Author · brief 2026-06-22

@ariaradnia ariaradnia

High-conviction long-only growth investor dissecting ad-tech and SaaS compounder flywheels

Posts bottom-up fundamental theses and real-time portfolio m

trader score
-1.23
hit rate
45%
mean α
-1.24%
signals 14d
106

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -1.24% mean alpha, trader score -1.23. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.2% since posting (mean over 93 mentions with price data).

Mixed software calls, ASML loyalty, consumer valuation skepticism

This author is selectively long quality/asset-moat and growth names, with explicit disclosed exposure to ASML and APP, while cutting ADBE after a large loss. The distinctive read is mixed within software: CRM is defended against disruption, ADBE is treated as impaired or at least highly contested, and WIX/DDOG are screened as valuation or reacceleration opportunities. Late-window attention shifted toward consumer/luxury damage and small-cap revenue growth setups, while ASML remained the clearest held conviction.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Software disruption and valuation resets
mixedfading36 signals
⚠ 67% of theme signals are ADBE — flag pump risk
M&A tape and deal-market froth
mixedintensifying10 signals
⚠ 40% of theme signals are CRM — flag pump risk
Semiconductor and physical-asset moats
bullintensifying15 signals
⚠ 47% of theme signals are ASML — flag pump risk
Consumer and media valuation damage
bearNEW6 signals
NFLXSNAPNKEMC.PALVMUYLVMH
Speculative growth and valuation extremes
mixedintensifying13 signals
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in ASML as a held long, APP as a disclosed 4% position, and selective software/growth screens such as CRM, WIX, DDOG, and SNDK. The clearest negative action is the ADBE exit at a large loss, while bearish attention also sits on TSLA valuation, LVMH growth deceleration, Nike’s long-term underperformance, and SpaceX/SPCX valuation comparisons. M&A news was a major early-week focus, especially FOX/ROKU and CRM AI deal activity, but most of that reads as tape commentary rather than direct trading action.

Position disclosures5skin in the game
ASML Refuses to sell ASML, implying an ongoing long position held
ASML Implies meaningful ASML exposure through daily portfolio P&L swings held
APP Discloses APP as a 4% portfolio position unclear
AVGO Notes Michael Dell has more money in Broadcom than in his own company held
DELL Notes Michael Dell has less money in Dell than in Broadcom held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
Mastercard has become unusually cheap on FCF and valuation multiples, creating a rare entry point for a quality compound
bullHIGH11 co-supporters
Uber is undervalued relative to its growth, free cash flow, and improving earnings power.
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
Shopify’s enlarged $5B buyback signals management confidence and provides valuation support near current market capitali
bullHIGH9 co-supporters
Repeated CFO and C-suite turnover signals governance or execution risk that could justify further TTD de-rating.
bearHIGH3 co-supporters
Adobe CEO succession and AI product leadership search could reset strategy and investor perception.
neutralMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02SNDK@ariaradnia+0.35May buy SNDK if it drops to 1500 — Author says they might put toy money into SNDK if it drops to $1500.
2026-07-02ADBE@ariaradnia+0.35Notes Adobe is up 14% over the past five trading days.
2026-07-02ASML@ariaradnia+0.65Calls ASML a true monopoly, citing long capex and R&D lead.
2026-07-02DIS@ariaradnia-0.45Mocks old blue-chip too-big-to-fail bullishness on Disney.
2026-07-02FICO@ariaradnia+0.45Highlights FICO's strong growth last quarter.
2026-07-02FICO@ariaradnia+0.65Discloses long FICO while mocking bear case about VantageScore pricing.
2026-07-01RDDT@ariaradnia+0.35Acknowledges 49x earnings valuation but says 70% growth makes it less relevant.-1.6%
2026-07-01RDDT@ariaradnia+0.50Reports RDDT is up 25% in three days since his video.-1.6%
2026-07-01ASML@ariaradnia+0.25Notes ASML is at its most expensive valuation ever but remains hesitant to sell.-4.0%
2026-07-01ASML@ariaradnia+0.45Recaps saying he was loading up on ASML at $720 last year.-4.0%
2026-07-01META@ariaradnia+0.45Says Zuckerberg is a good CEO again in connection with META.-4.9%
2026-07-01APP@ariaradnia+0.85Says APP is a $1000 stock trading for $560.-6.7%
2026-07-01META@ariaradnia+0.25Notes META is up 10%.-4.9%
2026-07-01APP@ariaradnia+0.55Expresses strong affection for AppLovin stock.-6.7%
2026-07-01SPGI@ariaradnia+0.35Says the spinoff is margin accretive despite revenue detraction.+6.0%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.