@ariaradnia ariaradnia
High-conviction long-only growth investor dissecting ad-tech and SaaS compounder flywheels
Posts bottom-up fundamental theses and real-time portfolio m
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -1.24% mean alpha, trader score -1.23. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.2% since posting (mean over 93 mentions with price data).
This author is selectively long quality/asset-moat and growth names, with explicit disclosed exposure to ASML and APP, while cutting ADBE after a large loss. The distinctive read is mixed within software: CRM is defended against disruption, ADBE is treated as impaired or at least highly contested, and WIX/DDOG are screened as valuation or reacceleration opportunities. Late-window attention shifted toward consumer/luxury damage and small-cap revenue growth setups, while ASML remained the clearest held conviction.
Conviction is concentrated in ASML as a held long, APP as a disclosed 4% position, and selective software/growth screens such as CRM, WIX, DDOG, and SNDK. The clearest negative action is the ADBE exit at a large loss, while bearish attention also sits on TSLA valuation, LVMH growth deceleration, Nike’s long-term underperformance, and SpaceX/SPCX valuation comparisons. M&A news was a major early-week focus, especially FOX/ROKU and CRM AI deal activity, but most of that reads as tape commentary rather than direct trading action.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | SNDK | @ariaradnia | +0.35 | May buy SNDK if it drops to 1500 — Author says they might put toy money into SNDK if it drops to $1500. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ADBE | @ariaradnia | +0.35 | Notes Adobe is up 14% over the past five trading days. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ASML | @ariaradnia | +0.65 | Calls ASML a true monopoly, citing long capex and R&D lead. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DIS | @ariaradnia | -0.45 | Mocks old blue-chip too-big-to-fail bullishness on Disney. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | FICO | @ariaradnia | +0.45 | Highlights FICO's strong growth last quarter. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | FICO | @ariaradnia | +0.65 | Discloses long FICO while mocking bear case about VantageScore pricing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | RDDT | @ariaradnia | +0.35 | Acknowledges 49x earnings valuation but says 70% growth makes it less relevant. | -1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | RDDT | @ariaradnia | +0.50 | Reports RDDT is up 25% in three days since his video. | -1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ASML | @ariaradnia | +0.25 | Notes ASML is at its most expensive valuation ever but remains hesitant to sell. | -4.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ASML | @ariaradnia | +0.45 | Recaps saying he was loading up on ASML at $720 last year. | -4.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @ariaradnia | +0.45 | Says Zuckerberg is a good CEO again in connection with META. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | APP | @ariaradnia | +0.85 | Says APP is a $1000 stock trading for $560. | -6.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @ariaradnia | +0.25 | Notes META is up 10%. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | APP | @ariaradnia | +0.55 | Expresses strong affection for AppLovin stock. | -6.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPGI | @ariaradnia | +0.35 | Says the spinoff is margin accretive despite revenue detraction. | +6.0% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.