Author
@aynirealtor aynirealtor
Macro-earnings index strategist armed with quantified historical base rates and live trade disclosures
Posts top-down regime calls on US indices and mega-cap tech,
trader score
+0.39
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.14%
signals 14d
51
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.14% mean alpha, trader score +0.39. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.3% since posting (mean over 28 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | SPX | @aynirealtor | -0.70 | An 18-for-18 first-hike study projects an average drawdown toward 6630 by March 2027. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @aynirealtor | · | Reports the portfolio gained more than 5% that day. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @aynirealtor | · | Flags Warsh's scheduled speech before the FOMC blackout after hot CPI and PPI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @aynirealtor | · | Positive reaction to broad market selloffs implies contrarian optimism. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SPX | @aynirealtor | +0.30 | Dismisses bearish commentary on SPX as merely sounding intelligent. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | IWM | @aynirealtor | -0.65 | Nine prior sub-30 RSI signals underperformed base rates with a -21.7% average drawdown. | +0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | RSP | @aynirealtor | +0.20 | Historical breadth lag is presented as a bullish one-year base rate for the S&P 500 | +2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | XLK | @aynirealtor | +0.10 | Historical breadth lag is presented as a bullish one-year base rate for the S&P 500 | -3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | SPX | @aynirealtor | +0.60 | Historical breadth lag is presented as a bullish one-year base rate for the S&P 500 | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | SPY | @aynirealtor | +0.30 | Historical breadth lag is presented as a bullish one-year base rate for the S&P 500 | -1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | SPX | @aynirealtor | +0.25 | Fifty-year breadth test argues current conditions do not match the 2000 peak | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TLT | @aynirealtor | +0.00 | References a depicted TLT relationship while disclaiming causation | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | SPX | @aynirealtor | +0.00 | References an SPX chart about midterm-election years without stating its conclusion. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | GS | @aynirealtor | +0.00 | CAT is identified as dragging DIA 0.4% lower premarket; GS is noted as the largest holding. | -2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | CAT | @aynirealtor | -0.25 | CAT is identified as dragging DIA 0.4% lower premarket; GS is noted as the largest holding. | -14.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.