Author

@bgurley bgurley

Venture economist dissecting AI unit economics and IPO market-structure incentives with contrarian rigor

Posts original, reasoning-heavy frameworks and critiques on

trader score
-0.42
hit rate
33%
mean α
-0.73%
signals 14d
2

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 6 scored bets: 33% hit rate, -0.73% mean alpha, trader score -0.42.

Recent signals2receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-26·@bgurley·Argues open models inevitably win in high-stakes software competition.·
2026-08-21·@bgurley·Argues U.S. global AI dominance is implausible after examining structural details.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.