@bgurley bgurley
Venture economist dissecting AI unit economics and IPO market-structure incentives with contrarian rigor
Posts original, reasoning-heavy frameworks and critiques on
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 5 scored bets: 60% hit rate, -0.32% mean alpha, trader score -0.27. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.5% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
This author did not make a directional call or disclose a trade in the window. The only cluster is a neutral request for data on the closed Amazon, JPMorgan, and Berkshire healthcare effort, with no stated long or short stance.
No directional conviction, adds, trims, exits, or flips are evident in the provided signals. The author’s activity is concentrated entirely in a neutral data request about the closed Amazon, JPMorgan, and Berkshire healthcare effort, so there is no pump-risk or trade concentration to flag.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | TCEHY | @bgurley | +0.45 | Says Pony Ma presented WeChat mini-app AI handshake vision with many partners. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @bgurley | · | Constructive view on open source monetization and disruption of proprietary margins. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @bgurley | · | Open source framed as competitive and deflationary for consumers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @bgurley | · | Comment that blocking in EVs will use old European playbook and have same effect. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @bgurley | · | Argues AI protectionism cages U.S. in with globally uncompetitive price/performance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @bgurley | · | Skeptical of AGI/ASI claims if models cannot detect espionage distillation in real time. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @bgurley | · | Says a policy action will ensure China model dominance, but standalone context is limited. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @bgurley | · | Claims rest of world will run on Chinese AI models. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @bgurley | · | Warns aggressive regulatory-capture efforts coincide with price rationalization pushing customers to alternatives. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | CATL | @bgurley | +0.35 | Compares CATL in China to Intel's dominance in PCs. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.