@biancoresearch biancoresearch
Institutional macro strategist mapping rates, inflation, and oil supply shocks to cross-asset risk
Publishes original top-down macro research and data charts o
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 7 scored bets: 57% hit rate, -0.20% mean alpha, trader score -0.19. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -11.4% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Bianco is focused on S&P concentration, arguing the market is effectively AI versus everything else. The distinctive read is that headline index strength masks weak non-AI participation, while macro commentary leans cautious on inflation, yields, and oil/geopolitical risk. No explicit trade calls or position changes appeared in this window.
The author’s clearest concentration is on AI-driven index concentration, with SPY and SPX framed as dependent on a narrow AI leadership cohort. Macro commentary is cautious around inflation, long yields, Hormuz-related oil risk, and weak crude positioning, but there are no explicit adds, trims, exits, or directional trade calls in the signal set.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Author says the Fed should hike rates, implying tighter policy stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Argues US market is two asset classes; AI stocks drove decline while non-AI rose. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | S&P 500 gains since Feb 28 were nearly all driven by AI stocks, affecting market signaling. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Notes record divergence between cap-weighted S&P 500 and equal-weight counterpart. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Chart observation that AI and non-AI stocks are starting to diverge. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | AI stocks account for 44% of S&P 500 market cap and peaked at 49%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | BofA's Hartnett chart shows market concentration in one theme at a 150-year extreme. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Thread thesis says stock market is effectively two asset classes: AI and non-AI stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Compares leveraged ETFs more to prediction markets and sports betting than investing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Reports US and Iran agreed to stop attacking before peace talks resume. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | SPX | @biancoresearch | +0.05 | Compares SPX, AI-related stocks, and non-AI stocks over the last week. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Reports Iran tanker incident and Bloomberg headline on additional US strikes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | BTC | @biancoresearch | +0.00 | References Bitcoin halving cycle timing and a $126,000 price level. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @biancoresearch | · | Notes DJIA up 0.75% and WTI crude down 8.57% since June 17. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | BMNR | @biancoresearch | -0.55 | BMNR unrealized losses reported at $10.78B with $3,456 average purchase price. | +5.9% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.