Author · brief 2026-06-22

@bjmtweets bjmtweets

Concentrated bottom-up fundamentalist obsessed with CELH, ROOT and insurtech/fintech compounders

Writes detailed, valuation-driven long theses on a small bas

trader score
+1.77
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.47%
signals 14d
184

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.47% mean alpha, trader score +1.77. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.2% since posting (mean over 149 mentions with price data).

PATH swing long leads mixed AI and consumer reads

bjmtweets is most explicit on PATH, initiating and disclosing a swing long tied to short float, ARR, retention, AI acceleration, and slower insider selling. He is also constructive on MELI’s moat and CELH’s consumer momentum, while late-week tone turns more cautious on AI-linked semis and the broader portfolio because of rates and overheating risk.

Themes4analyst read · 2026-06-22
PATH automation swing-trade setup
bullNEW4 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are PATH — flag pump risk
MELI ecosystem moat and compounding
bullfading6 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are MELI — flag pump risk
CELH positioning, Alani Nu, and scanner growth
bullfading11 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are CELH — flag pump risk
AI trade valuation and macro risk
mixedNEW4 signals
Direction this week

The week centers on a new PATH swing long, while CELH and MELI remain constructive single-name themes. Late-week tone becomes more risk-aware: he trimmed portfolio exposure on hawkish rate projections and flagged overheating in AI-linked SNDK, TSM, and MU, though still keeps MSFT on watch for AI upside and valuation.

Position disclosures1skin in the game
PATH Disclosed PATH swing long tied to ARR, retention, short float, and AI thesis held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
Distribution expansion, including France and Red Bull-like local availability gaps, can restart CELH growth.
bullHIGH4 co-supporters
The regulatory selloff is headline noise because likely outcomes are manageable labeling or packaging changes.
bullHIGH3 co-supporters
Rob Livingston's CFO appointment brings Visa experience and supports NU's expansion, credit-cycle preparation, and insti
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
Brazil and LatAm macro, credit losses, FX, high rates, and geography discount may pressure NU despite growth.
bearHIGH8 co-supporters
FDA and FTC scrutiny of GLP-1 advertising or compounded drugs could pressure HIMS shares and strategy.
bearLOW5 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02CRWV@bjmtweets-0.35Argues Amazon will avoid neocloud rentals and favor Bedrock, Trainium, custom silicon, and its own data centers.
2026-07-02IREN@bjmtweets-0.35Argues Amazon will avoid neocloud rentals and favor Bedrock, Trainium, custom silicon, and its own data centers.
2026-07-02AMZN@bjmtweets+0.45Argues Amazon will avoid neocloud rentals and favor Bedrock, Trainium, custom silicon, and its own data centers.
2026-07-02NBIS@bjmtweets-0.35Argues Amazon will avoid neocloud rentals and favor Bedrock, Trainium, custom silicon, and its own data centers.
2026-07-02AMZN@bjmtweets+0.35States Amazon is leading Google in cash-flow generation as capex turns into new cash streams.
2026-07-02GOOGL@bjmtweets-0.10States Amazon is leading Google in cash-flow generation as capex turns into new cash streams.
2026-07-02AMZN@bjmtweets+0.40Argues AWS can broker LLM demand and run more compute on Trainium where economics are best.
2026-07-02ROOT@bjmtweets-0.10Author says LMND car insurance interest and growth has liftoff, while ROOT pulled back advertising.
2026-07-02LMND@bjmtweets+0.55Author says LMND car insurance interest and growth has liftoff, while ROOT pulled back advertising.
2026-07-02AMZN@bjmtweets+0.15Author says Amazon merged Inferentia and Trainium lines, positioning Trainium 3 as unified training/inference platform.
2026-07-02AMZN@bjmtweets+0.20Author says Trainium 4 gains skew inference, with 6x FP4 and 3x FP8 gains.
2026-07-02NVDA@bjmtweets-0.25Author says Trainium 4 using NVDA NVLink shows inference moving from GPUs to ASICs while NVDA takes infrastructure tax.
2026-07-02AMZN@bjmtweets+0.35Author says Trainium 4 using NVDA NVLink shows inference moving from GPUs to ASICs while NVDA takes infrastructure tax.
2026-07-02NVDA@bjmtweets-0.15TrendForce expects ASIC shipments to grow faster than GPUs and gain AI server share.
2026-07-02MRVL@bjmtweets+0.40TrendForce expects ASIC shipments to grow faster than GPUs and gain AI server share.

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.