@bjmtweets bjmtweets
Concentrated bottom-up fundamentalist obsessed with CELH, ROOT and insurtech/fintech compounders
Writes detailed, valuation-driven long theses on a small bas
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-10-18.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 80% hit rate, +1.00% mean alpha, trader score +2.95. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +3.0% since posting (mean over 19 mentions with price data).
The author suggests LMND has substantial undisclosed technology based on capitalized software costs and views ROOT's low pricing across 17 states alongside profitability as positive evidence. UPST coverage highlights roughly 50% short interest near a 52-week low, four times fintech peers. No ownership, trades, or late-window shift is disclosed; all five signals fall on one day.
No positions disclosed this window — everything below is commentary, not book talk.
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMND's capitalized software costs suggest it has built substantial undisclosed technology. | LMND | ▲ | 0.00 | 3 | · | Insurance software investment an | tweet ↗ |
Attention is concentrated on insurance technology and pricing, accounting for four of five signals, with positive claims about LMND and ROOT. The remaining signal flags unusually high UPST short interest; no adds, trims, or conviction trajectory can be established from this single-day sample.
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMND | 9 | +0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ROOT | 7 | +0.50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| UPST | 2 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AMZN | 1 | +0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| HIPO | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | UPST | @bjmtweets | -0.20 | Reports roughly 50% short interest near a 52-week low, four times fintech peers. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | ROOT | @bjmtweets | +0.60 | Calls Root's low pricing across 17 states a positive proof point alongside profitability. | +8.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | HIPO | @bjmtweets | +0.00 | Compares capitalized software costs and suggests Lemonade has built substantial undisclosed technology. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.30 | Compares capitalized software costs and suggests Lemonade has built substantial undisclosed technology. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | ROOT | @bjmtweets | +0.00 | Compares capitalized software costs and suggests Lemonade has built substantial undisclosed technology. | +8.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.00 | Reports that 98% of Lemonade pet losses are paid in the accident's first year. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.00 | Notes Lemonade uses Amazon Web Services for hosting. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | AMZN | @bjmtweets | +0.10 | Notes Lemonade uses Amazon Web Services for hosting. | -2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.40 | Reports Lemonade risk-based capital at 586% and Metromile at 625%, above the cited preferred range. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.20 | Reports cross-selling rates from Lemonade's pet-policy customer base. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | UPST | @bjmtweets | +0.70 | Contrasts an 8.5B model valuation with Upstart's current 2.3B market value. | -1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | ROOT | @bjmtweets | +0.55 | Argues ROOT has an early lead in embedding-based products for AI-agent commerce. | +12.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.40 | Argues AI price discovery could benefit Lemonade and reduce advertising needs. | -3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | ROOT | @bjmtweets | +0.50 | Reports ROOT is building an MCP server and links it to its existing Bind API platform. | +12.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | LMND | @bjmtweets | +0.45 | Builds a detailed case that Lemonade may be positioning itself for acquisition. | -3.0% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.