@BlackScholesMan BlackScholesMan
Anon trader running a deep defense/space supply-chain book with a geopolitical-energy macro overlay
Posts original, tickered fundamental and supply-chain theses
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +1.94% mean alpha, trader score +1.61. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +6.4% since posting (mean over 22 mentions with price data).
BlackScholesMan is mainly focused on defense, counter-UAS, directed energy, and foreign energy names tied to crude and geopolitical dislocation. The clearest ticker work is bullish EOS.AX, TKMS, CODA, MHVIY, and KWHIY, with SPCX treated as a chart-pattern watch rather than a directional fundamental call. Late-week attention clusters around EOS.AX backlog, UAE order/co-manufacturing news, and broader c-UAS acquisition needs.
Conviction is concentrated in defense and geopolitical supply chains, especially EOS.AX within counter-UAS and directed-energy demand, while TKMS is framed as a buy-on-weakness defense name. The author also discloses underowned MHVIY and KWHIY exposure into a crude-market impulse. EOS.AX concentration is notable because multiple late-window signals cluster around backlog, UAE order/co-manufacturing, and acquisition demand.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | SKYT | @BlackScholesMan | -0.25 | Author says they completely exited position after sale to SAF and compares to SKYT insider issue. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SAF | @BlackScholesMan | -0.45 | Author says they completely exited position after sale to SAF and compares to SKYT insider issue. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | KX4 | @BlackScholesMan | +0.30 | Mentions two large Gabler buys six weeks apart, implying insider buying. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | KDEF | @BlackScholesMan | +0.10 | Author refers to KDEF as Korean holding but context is unclear. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | EOS.AX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.45 | Reports more backlog and a new shipbuilding customer for EOS.AX. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | RKLB | @BlackScholesMan | +0.00 | Mentions collar math for RKLB and IRDM, likely options structure context. | +0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IRDM | @BlackScholesMan | +0.00 | Mentions collar math for RKLB and IRDM, likely options structure context. | -3.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SIF | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | SIF breaking out to a new high. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @BlackScholesMan | -0.20 | Questions META's AI compute strength if it has surplus to lease out. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TAKOF | @BlackScholesMan | +0.30 | Author notes all shares lent out and possible Canada procurement catalysts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | FLT.TO | @BlackScholesMan | +0.30 | Author notes all shares lent out and possible Canada procurement catalysts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MPTI | @BlackScholesMan | +0.30 | Mentions a nice small order for MPTI, likely customer/order update. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | JOBY | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | Uses Toyota's apparent support to push back on JOBY eVTOL criticism. | -4.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | AVAV | @BlackScholesMan | +0.40 | Frames AVAV negative cash from investment as funding a unique Albuquerque buildout. | +15.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | MPTI | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | Defense/missile rebuild plans are cited as reason several related stocks are moving. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.