Author
@BlackScholesMan BlackScholesMan
grade Ax.com/BlackScholesMan ↗
Anon trader running a deep defense/space supply-chain book with a geopolitical-energy macro overlay
Posts original, tickered fundamental and supply-chain theses
trader score
-2.53
hit rate
25%
mean α
-1.80%
signals 14d
60
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 25% hit rate, -1.80% mean alpha, trader score -2.53. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -8.7% since posting (mean over 25 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Observes three days of European defense outperformance and a run in U.S. primes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | XK4 | @BlackScholesMan | +0.20 | Reports XK4 Gabler's completed acquisition of 75% of DECK Marine Systems. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Questions rate hikes as a remedy for a supply shock and warns of home-equity deflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Says leveraged AI-adjacent names are weakening while stronger businesses separate from the pack. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | LPTH | @BlackScholesMan | -0.35 | Notes severe selling and says a rebound to 9.49 is needed merely to reach the 9-day average. | -11.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Suggests sellers may be exhausted and some market-cap valuations have become absurdly low. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Discloses a Korean basket and argues its businesses benefit from AI usage rather than spending. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Describes a global deleveraging regime overwhelming a defense-spending thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | RKLB | @BlackScholesMan | +0.30 | Accepts launch delays as necessary to produce a reliable rocket and protect investors. | -11.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | RKLB | @BlackScholesMan | +0.25 | Frames Neutron's schedule push as unsurprising and preferable to discovering defects during launch. | -11.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | IWM | @BlackScholesMan | -0.35 | Observes apparent forced selling in small caps while questioning whether SPY will follow. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | SPY | @BlackScholesMan | +0.00 | Observes apparent forced selling in small caps while questioning whether SPY will follow. | -1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | IWM | @BlackScholesMan | -0.35 | IWM is near its low of day and below the 200-day average despite lower rates. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ELMT | @BlackScholesMan | +0.00 | Flags an ELMT unlock scheduled for Monday. | +12.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ASTS | @BlackScholesMan | +0.55 | Endorses ASTS's strategy of partnering with local operators on sovereign constellations | -5.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.