Author
@BlackScholesMan BlackScholesMan
grade Ax.com/BlackScholesMan ↗
Anon trader running a deep defense/space supply-chain book with a geopolitical-energy macro overlay
Posts original, tickered fundamental and supply-chain theses
trader score
+1.88
hit rate
55%
mean α
+1.27%
signals 14d
47
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +1.27% mean alpha, trader score +1.88. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.1% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | TTWO | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | Praises GTA 6 marketing and regrets not having gone long Take-Two before the reveal. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | LPTH | @BlackScholesMan | -0.35 | Argues military testing is incomplete and NGSRI was never a near-term LPTH catalyst. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Calls the speech hawkish but expects markets to rally into month-end. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Expects an extremely hawkish Warsh speech while criticizing likely inaction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | RTX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | Base case expects both defense firms to receive low-rate initial-production contracts by October 1 | -0.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | LMT | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | Base case expects both defense firms to receive low-rate initial-production contracts by October 1 | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @BlackScholesMan | · | Argues foreign rate hikes and currency strength make international investing preferable to US assets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | WOR.AX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.50 | Exited EQR.AX to fund a WOR.AX trade while retaining upside expectations for EQR. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | EQR.AX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.15 | Exited EQR.AX to fund a WOR.AX trade while retaining upside expectations for EQR. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | WOR.AX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.80 | Large buy in WOR.AX at AUD 9.70. — Reports a large new WOR.AX purchase backed by a five-year historical return claim. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | TKMS | @BlackScholesMan | +0.35 | Will continue holding XK4 after acceptable earnings and expects a TKMS order. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | XK4 | @BlackScholesMan | +0.40 | Will continue holding XK4 after acceptable earnings and expects a TKMS order. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | EOS.AX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.45 | Corrects an estimate to above $1B versus a current $1.9B market cap. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | EOPSF | @BlackScholesMan | +0.45 | Corrects an estimate to above $1B versus a current $1.9B market cap. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | EOS.AX | @BlackScholesMan | +0.40 | Management confirms the MARSS system has been used in active combat. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.