Author

@BlueDuckCap BlueDuckCap

Conviction special-situations PM dissecting under-covered small/mid-caps with disclosed positions

Original bottom-up special-situations and activist-angle res

trader score
+1.95
hit rate
60%
mean α
+2.90%
signals 14d
35

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +2.90% mean alpha, trader score +1.95. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +7.0% since posting (mean over 21 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28STIM@BlueDuckCap+0.70Buy STIM today; the clinic business is effectively free. — Explicit buy call based on sum-of-parts valuation.·
2026-08-27·@BlueDuckCap·Attributes the post-2020 inflationary episode to pandemic shutdowns.·
2026-08-27SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.15Suggests Snap could restructure funding so shareholders no longer bear the cost directly.+1.9%
2026-08-27SNAP@BlueDuckCap-0.75Predicts Snap Specs likely fail due to limited TAM, high price, and unattractive appearance.+1.9%
2026-08-27SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.45Identifies subscriptions as an overlooked Snap inflection point.+1.9%
2026-08-26SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.50Expects subscription growth to drive a material SNAP beat even if advertising decelerates.+0.2%
2026-08-26SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.25Urges SNAP to spin off Specs and fund it externally because the product is not commercially viable.+0.2%
2026-08-26SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.65Argues SNAP's subscription pivot is underappreciated and implies substantial revenue runway.+0.2%
2026-08-25SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.55Argues SNAP is dramatically undervalued relative to how peers would react to the same disclosure.-8.3%
2026-08-25META@BlueDuckCap+0.10Argues SNAP is dramatically undervalued relative to how peers would react to the same disclosure.+1.4%
2026-08-25AMZN@BlueDuckCap+0.10Argues SNAP is dramatically undervalued relative to how peers would react to the same disclosure.+2.1%
2026-08-25XGN@BlueDuckCap+0.85Explicitly identifies XGN as the author's largest position and praises management.·
2026-08-24SOXX@BlueDuckCap-0.30Quantifies that SOXX could fall another 20% while remaining over 30% higher year to date.+0.5%
2026-08-21XGN@BlueDuckCap+0.60Says XGN is only getting started, expressing clear bullishness.·
2026-08-21SNAP@BlueDuckCap+0.70Argues SNAP could earn more than $1 per share in next-year FCF despite a $5 stock price.+3.6%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.