Author
@btc_overflow btc_overflow
grade Ax.com/btc_overflow ↗
Structured-finance analyst dissecting the Bitcoin treasury capital stack with institutional rigor
Provides deep, mechanistic analysis of Bitcoin treasury comp
trader score
-0.67
hit rate
40%
mean α
-0.38%
signals 14d
47
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -0.38% mean alpha, trader score -0.67. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.0% since posting (mean over 26 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | STRC | @btc_overflow | +0.20 | States STRC daily dividend accrual begins November 1 and contrasts its calendar-day treatment with SATA. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | SATA | @btc_overflow | +0.00 | States STRC daily dividend accrual begins November 1 and contrasts its calendar-day treatment with SATA. | +1.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SATS | @btc_overflow | +0.30 | Reports SATS priced at $90, implying a 16.7% effective yield for IPO buyers. | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SATS | @btc_overflow | +0.35 | Forecasts SATS IPO pricing at $90 and says a lower price would be especially attractive. | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @btc_overflow | · | Advocates contrarian buying during severe market distress rather than capitulation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @btc_overflow | · | Observes that Strategy and Strive preferred shares have consistently IPO'd below par in the $80-$90 range. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SATS | @btc_overflow | +0.35 | Compares effective yields and forecasts SATS pricing at $80-$90, implying a wider spread over STRD. | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | STRD | @btc_overflow | +0.25 | Compares effective yields and forecasts SATS pricing at $80-$90, implying a wider spread over STRD. | -3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @btc_overflow | · | Says the expected October bullish seasonality has already failed to materialize. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @btc_overflow | · | Compares the 2026 AI crash with the 2025 bitcoin-treasury crash and favors bitcoin over semiconductors for the next year. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SATS | @btc_overflow | +0.00 | Reports the explicit October 13-15 IPO indication-of-interest period. | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SATS | @btc_overflow | +0.70 | Calls the 15% preferred shares very attractive if the IPO prices at a discount. | +3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | ASST | @btc_overflow | -0.10 | Expects extreme long-term volatility in ASST's options chain. | +5.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SLE | @btc_overflow | +0.00 | Labels the transitioning Bitcoin-treasury company the cycle's biggest wildcard. | +19.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SUPA | @btc_overflow | +0.00 | Labels the transitioning Bitcoin-treasury company the cycle's biggest wildcard. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.