Author
@Butamaru_Butako Butamaru_Butako
grade Bx.com/Butamaru_Butako ↗
Bilingual AI-semis commentator filtering earnings through capex-durability and macro-fragility lenses
Posts Japanese/US market recaps and earnings reactions, most
trader score
-0.83
hit rate
38%
mean α
-1.30%
signals 14d
13
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 8 scored bets: 38% hit rate, -1.30% mean alpha, trader score -0.83. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +3.9% since posting (mean over 6 mentions with price data).
Recent signals13receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @Butamaru_Butako | -0.15 | Sees rate risk and scarce positive AI catalysts but hopes earnings reveal broader AI adoption. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @Butamaru_Butako | -0.35 | Sees rate risk and scarce positive AI catalysts but hopes earnings reveal broader AI adoption. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ASML | @Butamaru_Butako | +0.15 | Warns high long-term rates could trigger a major AI correction while upstream chip demand remains sound. | -4.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @Butamaru_Butako | +0.00 | Warns high long-term rates could trigger a major AI correction while upstream chip demand remains sound. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @Butamaru_Butako | -0.65 | Warns high long-term rates could trigger a major AI correction while upstream chip demand remains sound. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | Describes a difficult high-rate, high-oil regime requiring closer scrutiny of AI cash flows and macro exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | Warns high rates may impair AI financing and trigger a major 2027 correction or worse. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | Urges preparation for volatility around earnings and CPI after markets reached record highs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | Sees macro fragility but longer-term opportunity in companies benefiting from cheaper AI. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | A 5% long-rate hurdle is framed as the valuation benchmark likely to dominate equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | Describes rotation from memory and disk stocks into AI power names ahead of a risky earnings season. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | · | @Butamaru_Butako | · | Argues strong US equities can withstand high rates, while leveraged firms and Japan face greater stress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-02 | NVDA | @Butamaru_Butako | +0.35 | Finds Nvidia's strength encouraging but recommends caution while rates and oil remain headwinds. | -9.8% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.