@carlosfagar carlosfagar
Perma-bull AI-infrastructure supply-chain mapper who DCAs into secular winners
Builds and publishes long-term bullish theses on AI infrastr
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-07-03.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 95% hit rate, +3.83% mean alpha, trader score +4.65. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -7.6% since posting (mean over 117 mentions with price data).
Carlos is overwhelmingly long Tesla as a robotics, autonomy, battery, and energy-storage platform, with NBIS as his disclosed second position and MU/NVDA added around AI compute scarcity. His distinctive read is that Tesla’s next 18 months and the broader AI infrastructure stack are still underappreciated despite valuation concerns. No clear flip appears; late-week activity shows continued TSLA bullishness, an explicit TSLA/NVDA add, and broader buyable-dip framing across semis and compute names.
Conviction stayed concentrated in TSLA, with repeated robotics, robotaxi, battery, China sales, and delivery-beat arguments across the window. The clearest actionable change was an explicit June 30 add call for TSLA and NVDA, plus a June 26 explicit MU long tied to HBM scarcity. Concentration is high enough to flag TSLA pump risk, while NBIS remains his disclosed second position despite a margin caveat.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @carlosfagar | +0.25 | States MU forward P/E is as tight as 6.28. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | BRK | @carlosfagar | -0.35 | Says BRK will not be the same without Charlie and Warren. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @carlosfagar | +0.25 | Rhetorically challenges claim that named semis are inflated. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @carlosfagar | +0.25 | Rhetorically challenges claim that named semis are inflated. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | LITE | @carlosfagar | +0.25 | Rhetorically challenges claim that named semis are inflated. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MRVL | @carlosfagar | +0.25 | Rhetorically challenges claim that named semis are inflated. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MRVL | @carlosfagar | +0.55 | References Jensen comment that MRVL could be the next $1T company. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AMD | @carlosfagar | +0.10 | Says TSMC advanced capacity and 2nm production are booked through 2027-28 amid explosive demand. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @carlosfagar | +0.60 | Says TSMC advanced capacity and 2nm production are booked through 2027-28 amid explosive demand. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | GOOGL | @carlosfagar | +0.10 | Says TSMC advanced capacity and 2nm production are booked through 2027-28 amid explosive demand. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSLA | @carlosfagar | +0.10 | Says TSMC advanced capacity and 2nm production are booked through 2027-28 amid explosive demand. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSLA | @carlosfagar | +0.90 | Says it is riskier not to be invested in Tesla and predicts broad Tesla tech penetration. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSM | @carlosfagar | +0.75 | Bullish AI/robotics framework with expected record TSM results and strong semis sales. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @carlosfagar | +0.65 | Bullish AI/robotics framework with expected record TSM results and strong semis sales. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | LITE | @carlosfagar | +0.65 | Bullish AI/robotics framework with expected record TSM results and strong semis sales. | — | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.