Author · brief 2026-06-22

@cevikfinance cevikfinance

Turkish AI-infrastructure swing trader mapping the full chip-to-power-to-space stack

Runs an original, education-flavored long-only swing/positio

trader score
+1.08
hit rate
65%
mean α
+1.25%
signals 14d
178

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, +1.25% mean alpha, trader score +1.08. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -7.6% since posting (mean over 112 mentions with price data).

Memory and AI winners dominate with selective swing targets

The author is heavily concentrated in MU and the broader memory complex, repeatedly disclosing MU exposure and pushing a long-cycle memory thesis. Distinctive calls cluster around aggressive upside targets in NBIS, CRWV, CIFR, SOFI, NVDA and AVGO, while the author also uses macro/Fed commentary to support risk-on swing setups. The clearest two-sided late-window shift is INTC: puts were flagged first, then a bullish policy/foundry thesis followed the next morning.

Themes6analyst read · 2026-06-22
Memory cycle and NAND supply tightness
bullintensifying37 signals
⚠ 68% of theme signals are MU — flag pump risk
AI infrastructure leadership and semiconductor winners
bullintensifying37 signals
Data-center power and infrastructure setups
bullintensifying13 signals
High-beta swing targets and momentum calls
bullintensifying26 signals
Macro risk-on, Fed path and regional rotation
mixedintensifying14 signals
⚠ 43% of theme signals are SPCX — flag pump risk
Intel reversal and policy-backed foundry optionality
mixedintensifying28 signals
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in MU and memory, with repeated bullish comments, position disclosures, and external analyst support. The author also pushed high-beta upside targets in NBIS, CRWV, CIFR, SOFI, NVDA and AVGO, while macro commentary stayed broadly risk-on. The only clear flip is INTC, moving from a planned put trade on June 17 to a bullish Trump-policy and foundry thesis on June 18.

Position disclosures5skin in the game
MU Already holds plenty of MU and does not need DRAM ETF for exposure held
DRAM Discusses DRAM ETF as 28% MU, implying ETF exposure is less necessary unclear
AXTI Discloses buying AXTI as a long position added
MU Discloses holding a large amount of MU in one portfolio held
HIMS Still holds HIMS and has not abandoned the $70 target held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
Cybersecurity investors should favor leaders like CRWD and PANW over SentinelOne after weaker execution.
bearHIGH3 co-supporters
Agentic AI should expand enterprise software demand rather than destroy CRM’s core software opportunity.
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
AI-driven memory shortages will persist for years, pushing DRAM and HBM pricing, margins and earnings materially higher.
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
AI-driven complexity across cloud, security and developer infrastructure should structurally increase demand for Cloudfl
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
NDX is overextended versus key moving averages, making a correction toward 20EMA, 40-week MA, or 50DMA likely.
bearHIGH9 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03·@cevikfinance·Author notes Korean market closed with a strong rise, contrary to expectations.·
2026-07-02GOOGL@cevikfinance+0.65Says Google did not die while Perplexity appears to be failing, with rocket emoji.
2026-07-02·@cevikfinance·Notes rotation from technology into healthcare, financials, and industrials but expects tech to return.·
2026-07-02SPX@cevikfinance+0.35States S&P 500 has not fallen in July for 11 years and expects seasonal bullish momentum.·
2026-07-02NDX@cevikfinance+0.45Says indices have not broken 50 EMA and believes uptrend will resume.·
2026-07-02SPX@cevikfinance+0.45Says indices have not broken 50 EMA and believes uptrend will resume.·
2026-07-02·@cevikfinance·Expects Korean market to be much worse after Nasdaq decline.·
2026-07-02·@cevikfinance·Says choppy market since June makes short-term trading difficult; favors waiting.·
2026-07-02·@cevikfinance·Reports losses on swing trades this week.·
2026-07-02·@cevikfinance·Reports weak payrolls versus expectations and says it supports rate-cut odds and stocks initially.·
2026-07-02·@cevikfinance·Jokes that a signal marks the end of the software rally.·
2026-07-02NVDA@cevikfinance+0.35Says Jensen Huang stopped the chaos created by META, praising Nvidia leadership.
2026-07-02META@cevikfinance-0.10Says Jensen Huang stopped the chaos created by META, praising Nvidia leadership.
2026-07-01·@cevikfinance·Says Nasdaq has been exhausting over the last month.·
2026-07-01·@cevikfinance·Says money moved out of chip companies today.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.