Author
@chamath chamath
grade Bx.com/chamath ↗
High-conviction founder-pundit theorizing AI platform economics while marketing his own software venture
Posts framework-driven macro/thematic threads on AI value-ch
trader score
+0.22
hit rate
40%
mean α
+0.23%
signals 14d
12
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.23% mean alpha, trader score +0.22. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -8.1% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals12receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @chamath | · | Questions AI-sector revenue quality due to venture-funded customer concentration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @chamath | · | Argues AI companies use misleading annualized revenue reporting. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | AMZN | @chamath | -0.45 | Argues agent commerce can bypass Amazon and weaken its marketplace moat. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @chamath | · | Argues Ant should accept a market-clearing IPO valuation near $1T to raise $200B. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @chamath | · | Argues power shortages will force companies to own electricity infrastructure | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @chamath | · | Reports model-and-harness benchmark results across seven models and five harnesses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @chamath | · | Framework predicts convergence across AI chips, cloud, models, and applications. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @chamath | · | Outlines a multi-year framework for enterprise AI governance and verification systems. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @chamath | · | Forecasts lucrative solar and battery markets, consolidation and new energy leaders. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | SPCE | @chamath | +0.00 | States Virgin Galactic was held through the funds and documented in annual letters. | -18.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | · | @chamath | · | Describes winding down external VC funds and shares Q2 performance-reporting principles. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | · | @chamath | · | Predicts AI pricing will shift from token markup to outcome-based fees, destroying current-model value. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.