Author

@chamath chamath

High-conviction founder-pundit theorizing AI platform economics while marketing his own software venture

Posts framework-driven macro/thematic threads on AI value-ch

trader score
+1.47
hit rate
57%
mean α
+1.05%
signals 14d
20

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 14 scored bets: 57% hit rate, +1.05% mean alpha, trader score +1.47. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.6% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@chamath·Explains a software product for bank AI governance, audit trails and examiner-ready evidence.·
2026-08-27·@chamath·Promotes an AI-assisted software-delivery offering using project failure statistics.·
2026-08-27·@chamath·Reiterates a SaaS bottom call and expects valuations to recover as results improve.·
2026-08-27·@chamath·Highlights accelerating quantum-bit scaling and risks to insecure cryptography.·
2026-08-26·@chamath·Argues AI economics will eventually shift margin power toward companies closest to end users.·
2026-08-26·@chamath·Argues costly frontier AI models face a long ROI curve and cheaper open-source substitution risk.·
2026-08-24·@chamath·Frames $765B AI capex and compute futures as a new investable infrastructure regime·
2026-08-23·@chamath·Predicts AI-designed kernels and architectures will make many current chips less differentiated·
2026-08-22·@chamath·Argues AI remains in its first inning and current winners and losers are premature.·
2026-08-22·@chamath·Argues complex regulation entrenches incumbents while simpler rules increase competition.·
2026-08-20·@chamath·Clarifies that a referenced figure could be misread as a 2–3% reduction in run-rate GDP.·
2026-08-20·@chamath·Argues large global companies' earnings growth has essentially no connection to AI.·
2026-08-20·@chamath·Growing data-center opposition is framed as a threat worth 200-300 bp of annual GDP.·
2026-08-19·@chamath·AI features will commoditize, driving token consumption higher while unit costs collapse.·
2026-08-19·@chamath·Argues expensive nuclear construction and grid exits will push electricity prices higher.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.