Author
@charliebilello charliebilello
grade Bx.com/charliebilello ↗
Prolific data-chart publisher anchoring markets in clean numbers and historical base rates
Publishes high-frequency, original data charts and tables on
trader score
+0.18
hit rate
42%
mean α
+0.10%
signals 14d
87
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 12 scored bets: 42% hit rate, +0.10% mean alpha, trader score +0.18. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -6.5% since posting (mean over 25 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @charliebilello | · | Reports FY2026 US federal receipts of $5.4T versus spending of $7.4T. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @charliebilello | · | Argues the Fed caused inflation by tightening late, prolonging QE and easing prematurely. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @charliebilello | · | Calls the Fed's price-stability record a failure, citing 4% annualized inflation and a 14% CPI overshoot. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @charliebilello | · | Reports a 3.6% Social Security COLA for 72 million beneficiaries beginning January 2027. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @charliebilello | · | Reports Miami home sellers outnumbering buyers by 159%, making it the strongest buyer's market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @charliebilello | · | Cites 6.3% annual producer inflation and argues the Fed has lost inflation-fighting credibility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @charliebilello | · | Questions official CPI methodology by citing a reported 36% decline in health-insurance costs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @charliebilello | · | Lists seven-year price increases across vehicles, food, housing, energy, insurance and services. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @charliebilello | · | Persistent above-target inflation leads the author to expect additional rate hikes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @charliebilello | · | Reports September CPI category inflation, including 3.7% headline inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @charliebilello | · | Contrasts prior promises with later oil and geopolitical statements to criticize policy outcomes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @charliebilello | · | Argues high starting yields imply strong seven-year bond returns despite bearish consensus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AAPL | @charliebilello | -0.25 | Apple trades near a record-high 11x sales valuation, implying elevated valuation risk | +1.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @charliebilello | · | Quantifies the decade-long deterioration in US housing affordability | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @charliebilello | · | Criticizes the Fed's bond purchases and cites $878 billion of unrealized losses | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.