@ChemStat66667 ChemStat66667
Japanese fundamental analyst dissecting the AI/semis supply chain chart by chart
Posts dense, chart-backed Japanese-language fundamental comm
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +1.10% mean alpha, trader score +2.48. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 35 mentions with price data).
This author is mostly mapping semiconductor, materials, and Japan macro crosscurrents rather than making explicit trades. Their distinctive read is that AI-linked strength persists in parts of the semiconductor chain, while memory profits, stretched Japanese cyclicals, and China-driven oversupply create valuation and demand risks. Explicit position or call signals are absent; conviction is analytical and concentrated in semis, materials, and rate-sensitive Japan data.
No explicit directional calls, adds, trims, exits, or position disclosures appear in this payload. The week is concentrated in semiconductor supply-chain analysis, Japan rate and valuation charts, and China oversupply concerns, with NVDA the most repeated named ticker. Pump-risk is limited because the author is not repeatedly promoting a microcap or disclosed position; the tone is more skeptical and comparative than trade-driven.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Says BYD sales are recovering and questions future growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Notes BYD June sales have recovered to normal levels. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NKE | @ChemStat66667 | +0.15 | Nike Q4 revenue declined overall but gross margin improved and profit rose slightly. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Japanese post says Flat 35 mortgage rates exceeded 3% and may rise another 0.5%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @ChemStat66667 | -0.35 | Suggests Meta selling compute may reflect overinvestment and cash needs. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Praises Midea's long-term growth but no public ticker is specified. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Compares Midea 10% operating margin with Panasonic around 5%, noting appliance industry pressure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Says Chinese real estate prices keep falling and Vanke has over 1T yen losses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @ChemStat66667 | · | Praises Midea's double-digit operating margin and manufacturing cost advantage. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | SMCI | @ChemStat66667 | -0.45 | Japanese post says SMCI appears raided for export-control violations and notes riskiness. | -3.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | INTC | @ChemStat66667 | -0.10 | Compares criticism of Apple over memory price increases to prior Intel criticism. | -6.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | AAPL | @ChemStat66667 | +0.10 | Compares criticism of Apple over memory price increases to prior Intel criticism. | +8.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | BABA | @ChemStat66667 | -0.45 | Notes Alibaba stock falling sharply and recent quarterly loss. | +1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | 8136.T | @ChemStat66667 | +0.55 | Says Sanrio regional sales growth, especially Japan, is surprisingly strong. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | 4716.T | @ChemStat66667 | +0.45 | Japan Oracle Q4 described as extremely high margin. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.