Author · brief 2026-06-22

@d_pavlos d_pavlos

Disciplined AI/semis swing trader running a TA-driven setups Discord

Posts daily/weekly technical trade setups with explicit entr

trader score
-0.26
hit rate
35%
mean α
-0.19%
signals 14d
121

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.19% mean alpha, trader score -0.26. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.3% since posting (mean over 102 mentions with price data).

Semis-led risk-on tape with tactical pullback adds

Author is primarily trading semiconductor leadership, repeatedly calling pullback adds in MU, MRVL, AVGO, AMD and NVDA while using SMH/SPY/QQQ levels as the risk-on framework. Distinctive read is technical and momentum-led: respect semi leadership, buy first pullbacks, and avoid fading strength, with limited fundamental content. Late-week posture shifted from aggressive semi add plans into macro-week caution and size-down guidance ahead of PMIs, GDP, durable goods, PCE, claims and Fed speakers.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Semiconductor leadership and pullback entries
bullintensifying118 signals
Index risk-on tape and dip buying
bullconsistent24 signals
⚠ 42% of theme signals are QQQ — flag pump risk
Mega-cap tech relative weakness versus leaders
mixedfading14 signals
Tactical breakout watchlists beyond semis
bullconsistent15 signals
Macro and earnings-week risk management
neutralintensifying21 signals
⚠ 86% of theme signals are MU — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction intensified through June 18 around semiconductor pullback entries, moving from broad risk-on and watchlist levels into explicit add plans for MU, MRVL, AVGO, AMD and NVDA. The only clear late-week moderation was risk management, with a June 20 macro-heavy framework advising size down ahead of data and Fed speakers rather than a bearish flip. Concentration is heaviest in semis and SMH-led market structure, with no position disclosures and no reported news breaks in the payload.

Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
DOCN fundamentals are being re-rated as an AI-app infrastructure and high-growth SaaS beneficiary after strong earnings.
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
Crowded semiconductor winners are seeing rotation into software, defensives, financials, or other AI beneficiaries.
neutralHIGH8 co-supporters
RDDT's chart is breaking out from bases and moving averages, targeting $200-$240 and potentially much higher.
bullHIGH9 co-supporters
IWM lagging technology and weak breadth suggest small caps are not confirming the broader rally.
bearHIGH6 co-supporters
XLF’s chart is setting up bullishly through trendline breaks, bull flags, liquidity grabs, and reclaim levels.
bullMEDIUM7 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02AMD@d_pavlos-0.10Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move.
2026-07-02HIMS@d_pavlos+0.35Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move.
2026-07-02CRWD@d_pavlos+0.40Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move.
2026-07-02DDOG@d_pavlos+0.35Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move.
2026-07-02MRNA@d_pavlos+0.40Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move.
2026-06-30SMH@d_pavlos+0.55SPY broke above 741 ceiling to 745; hold 741 opens 760, semis leading.-9.7%
2026-06-30SPY@d_pavlos+0.45SPY broke above 741 ceiling to 745; hold 741 opens 760, semis leading.-0.3%
2026-06-26SMH@d_pavlos-0.10SMH down premarket with 600 as support and 671 reclaim level.-3.2%
2026-06-26AMD@d_pavlos+0.55Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target.-0.7%
2026-06-26MRVL@d_pavlos+0.55Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target.-8.1%
2026-06-26MU@d_pavlos+0.55Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target.-13.8%
2026-06-26QQQ@d_pavlos+0.45Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target.+0.9%
2026-06-26SMH@d_pavlos+0.60Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target.-3.2%
2026-06-26SPY@d_pavlos+0.55Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target.+2.2%
2026-06-25JACK@d_pavlos+0.05Discusses 30-40% short float, days-to-cover, borrow rate and reclaim levels as squeeze triggers.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.