@d_pavlos d_pavlos
Disciplined AI/semis swing trader running a TA-driven setups Discord
Posts daily/weekly technical trade setups with explicit entr
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.19% mean alpha, trader score -0.26. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.3% since posting (mean over 102 mentions with price data).
Author is primarily trading semiconductor leadership, repeatedly calling pullback adds in MU, MRVL, AVGO, AMD and NVDA while using SMH/SPY/QQQ levels as the risk-on framework. Distinctive read is technical and momentum-led: respect semi leadership, buy first pullbacks, and avoid fading strength, with limited fundamental content. Late-week posture shifted from aggressive semi add plans into macro-week caution and size-down guidance ahead of PMIs, GDP, durable goods, PCE, claims and Fed speakers.
Conviction intensified through June 18 around semiconductor pullback entries, moving from broad risk-on and watchlist levels into explicit add plans for MU, MRVL, AVGO, AMD and NVDA. The only clear late-week moderation was risk management, with a June 20 macro-heavy framework advising size down ahead of data and Fed speakers rather than a bearish flip. Concentration is heaviest in semis and SMH-led market structure, with no position disclosures and no reported news breaks in the payload.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | AMD | @d_pavlos | -0.10 | Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | HIMS | @d_pavlos | +0.35 | Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CRWD | @d_pavlos | +0.40 | Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DDOG | @d_pavlos | +0.35 | Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MRNA | @d_pavlos | +0.40 | Recaps weekly focus-list performance and win rate after the move. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | SMH | @d_pavlos | +0.55 | SPY broke above 741 ceiling to 745; hold 741 opens 760, semis leading. | -9.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | SPY | @d_pavlos | +0.45 | SPY broke above 741 ceiling to 745; hold 741 opens 760, semis leading. | -0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | SMH | @d_pavlos | -0.10 | SMH down premarket with 600 as support and 671 reclaim level. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | AMD | @d_pavlos | +0.55 | Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target. | -0.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | MRVL | @d_pavlos | +0.55 | Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target. | -8.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | MU | @d_pavlos | +0.55 | Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target. | -13.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | QQQ | @d_pavlos | +0.45 | Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target. | +0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | SMH | @d_pavlos | +0.60 | Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | SPY | @d_pavlos | +0.55 | Add leaders on the retest; SPY 800+ remains target. — Says semis weakness is sale opportunity and they add on retest, with SPY 800+ target. | +2.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | JACK | @d_pavlos | +0.05 | Discusses 30-40% short float, days-to-cover, borrow rate and reclaim levels as squeeze triggers. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.