@daniel_koss daniel_koss
Transparent high-conviction AI-infrastructure thesis trader anchored on Nebius and the compute-power-memory stack
Publishes deep, modeled fundamental theses on AI-infrastruct
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +5.07% mean alpha, trader score +2.96. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.2% since posting (mean over 69 mentions with price data).
The author is primarily trading around NBIS, staying structurally bullish on AI cloud infrastructure while explicitly selling a short-term trade after a large move. Distinctive read is that AI cloud names are not simple equipment lessors, with performance benchmarks and token-per-watt economics supporting the thesis. Late week attention broadened into defense, especially Kraken/KRKNF and PNG.V, while NBIS conviction became more risk-aware after warnings about downside and regulatory capture.
The week starts heavily pro-NBIS and AI cloud, then shifts into explicit risk management with downside warnings, regulatory-capture concerns, and disclosures of a short-term NBIS sale. That is a short-term conviction fade or trading trim, not a full thesis flip, because he continues to frame NBIS as a 3-5 year bull case. New late-week focus appears in defense, with Kraken/KRKNF and PNG.V becoming the clearest non-NBIS bullish cluster.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | META | @daniel_koss | -0.25 | Says Meta's issue is likely AI product execution, not compute demand or broader AI demand slowing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @daniel_koss | +0.35 | Cites SemiAnalysis claims Meta datacenter procurement and 2027 capex will accelerate, countering AI FUD. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.45 | Mocks AI bears and NBIS shorts, implying constructive stance on AI/NBIS. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.55 | Sarcastically discloses being 100% all-in Nebius while down on the day but up strongly YTD. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.35 | Defends Nebius hiring process and people as a strength. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MSFT | @daniel_koss | -0.25 | Says Azure is not a great product. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @daniel_koss | +0.45 | Bullish long-term Nebius thesis tied to exec hire, demand, financing and AI neocloud positioning. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @daniel_koss | +0.00 | Bullish long-term Nebius thesis tied to exec hire, demand, financing and AI neocloud positioning. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.85 | Bullish long-term Nebius thesis tied to exec hire, demand, financing and AI neocloud positioning. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.40 | Argues potential financing terms should be better than dilution for shareholders. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.65 | Says he is giga bullish Nebius overall while noting execution risk and prior selling. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @daniel_koss | +0.00 | Says an unnamed company is an Nvidia customer, not partner; stance on NVDA itself is unclear. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IREN | @daniel_koss | +0.15 | Praises honest IREN commentary and says he has transparently sold Nebius at times. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @daniel_koss | +0.35 | Praises honest IREN commentary and says he has transparently sold Nebius at times. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | CRWV | @daniel_koss | +0.45 | Bullish thesis on Nvidia financing neoclouds, non-dilutive capacity growth and future compute demand. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.