Author
@DanielMuvdiYT DanielMuvdiYT
grade Bx.com/DanielMuvdiYT ↗
Spanish-language macro bear deconstructing the AI-capex bubble with credit-cycle and second-order logic
Original analyst/educator publishing a high-conviction late-
trader score
+2.24
hit rate
70%
mean α
+1.69%
signals 14d
76
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +1.69% mean alpha, trader score +2.24. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 27 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Argues rates must rise first to control inflation sustainably. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Warsh left the door open to additional rate hikes amid persistent inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.80 | Discloses buying PATH near the bottom and an existing favored NVDA short. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | PATH | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.70 | Discloses buying PATH near the bottom and an existing favored NVDA short. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SNDK | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.35 | Discloses buying PATH near the bottom and an existing favored NVDA short. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Highlights extreme customer concentration but lacks an identifiable company. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.80 | Claims an 800% realized Nvidia gain, with some clients reaching 1,000%. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.95 | NVDA is the easiest short: customer concentration and local AI will erode growth. — Explicitly calls NVIDIA the market's easiest short and gives a detailed structural bear thesis. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Argues U.S. consumption is vulnerable because spending outpaces income while savings fall and inflation broadens. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | AAPL | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.70 | Argues Apple's local-AI strategy is superior to indefinite centralized compute expansion. | +2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Argues market probabilities increasingly support a rate hike by December. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Reports PCE inflation above expectations, complicating rate cuts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Positively compares an AI model's speed, cost and quality, but no public company is identified. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | AAPL | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.40 | Argues local and custom AI hardware may pressure Nvidia while benefiting alternatives. | +3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | INTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.35 | Argues local and custom AI hardware may pressure Nvidia while benefiting alternatives. | +2.3% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.