Author
@DanielMuvdiYT DanielMuvdiYT
grade Bx.com/DanielMuvdiYT ↗
Spanish-language macro bear deconstructing the AI-capex bubble with credit-cycle and second-order logic
Original analyst/educator publishing a high-conviction late-
trader score
+0.86
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.80%
signals 14d
37
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.80% mean alpha, trader score +0.86. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -9.1% since posting (mean over 18 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.15 | Promotes market update for BTC and next-week opportunities without specifics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.15 | Mentions projections for BTC and crypto opportunities next week. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Compares GLM 5.2 to Claude and Opus 4.8 with lower cost and independent tester performance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Reports weak US jobs print, downward revisions, lower unemployment and participation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSLA | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.60 | Says news is excellent for Tesla and the car will sell the most. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Long macro risk-off framework warning about tech, AI, crypto, rates, oil, gold, bonds and dollar. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.55 | Argues crypto narrative has declined and crypto has not bottomed yet. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | MSTR | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.20 | States Strategy trades at 0.66x diluted mNAV, a 34% discount to Bitcoin holdings. | +8.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | +0.65 | Will buy more Bitcoin if it reaches 50k — Says Bitcoin should be in portfolio and they will buy more near 50k. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.35 | Calls BTC speculative short term and hard to value due to faster, cheaper competitors. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.65 | Sarcastically criticizes Strategy potentially selling Bitcoin at 60k to fund dividends. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @DanielMuvdiYT | · | Reports Trump statement on U.S. strikes against Iranian missile, drone and radar sites. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | MSTR | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.70 | Argues Strategy's amplified Bitcoin exposure is risky leverage and dilution when premium collapses. | +22.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | BTC | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.10 | Argues Strategy's amplified Bitcoin exposure is risky leverage and dilution when premium collapses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | MSTR | @DanielMuvdiYT | -0.75 | Says MSTR is at mNAV 1, cannot sell premium shares, and has under 10 months cash reserve. | +22.4% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.