Author
@DanielTNiles DanielTNiles
grade Ax.com/DanielTNiles ↗
Macro-savvy tech PM weaving Mag7, semis and software into a weekly AI-capex regime call
Publishes long-form, original weekly macro and mega-cap tech
trader score
-1.98
hit rate
25%
mean α
-0.61%
signals 14d
34
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 25% hit rate, -0.61% mean alpha, trader score -1.98. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.4% since posting (mean over 13 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @DanielTNiles | -0.45 | Uses Cisco's collapse to warn NVDA backlog and customer concentration may become a 2027 problem. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | CSCO | @DanielTNiles | +0.00 | Uses Cisco's collapse to warn NVDA backlog and customer concentration may become a 2027 problem. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Expects Warsh may raise rates at the September or October Fed meeting. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Reports September hike odds closed near 58%, roughly triple the prior day's level. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SPX | @DanielTNiles | -0.45 | Low VIX signals complacency and greater SPX shock risk, while making hedges cheaper. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | VIX | @DanielTNiles | +0.35 | Low VIX signals complacency and greater SPX shock risk, while making hedges cheaper. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Agrees Warsh does not view conditions as restrictive and has prepared for a hike. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Says Warsh's inflation message increased hike probability and downside risk into midterms. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Author endorses Druckenmiller's warning that government attempts to set bond prices will ultimately fail. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | NVDA | @DanielTNiles | +0.45 | Finds NVDA risk-reward attractive but expects macro, political and seasonal pressure on equities. | +1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | SPX | @DanielTNiles | -0.45 | Finds NVDA risk-reward attractive but expects macro, political and seasonal pressure on equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Warns that failure of a large leveraged institution creates contagion risk for its lenders. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | SPY | @DanielTNiles | -0.40 | Author expects selling pressure to fade soon but remains worried about a typical midterm drawdown and yields. | +0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | SPY | @DanielTNiles | -0.40 | Author expects selling pressure to fade soon but remains worried about a typical midterm drawdown and yields. | +0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Argues the scale and refinancing rate of U.S. debt create a heavy tax-receipt servicing burden. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.