Author
@DanielTNiles DanielTNiles
grade Ax.com/DanielTNiles ↗
Macro-savvy tech PM weaving Mag7, semis and software into a weekly AI-capex regime call
Publishes long-form, original weekly macro and mega-cap tech
trader score
-0.31
hit rate
50%
mean α
-0.12%
signals 14d
29
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 14 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.12% mean alpha, trader score -0.31. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.0% since posting (mean over 16 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Chinese memory supply is framed as a threat because 15–25% of devices sell into China. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Chinese memory supply is framed as a threat because 15–25% of devices sell into China. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Compares current conditions with the 2000 bubble period. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | MSFT | @DanielTNiles | +0.40 | Historical oversold data supports a near-term chip rally, while AI can run into 2027 despite memory risks. | -2.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | MU | @DanielTNiles | -0.25 | Historical oversold data supports a near-term chip rally, while AI can run into 2027 despite memory risks. | -5.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | META | @DanielTNiles | +0.40 | Historical oversold data supports a near-term chip rally, while AI can run into 2027 despite memory risks. | -12.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | KBWB | @DanielTNiles | -0.60 | Poor bank performance and mixed results leave the author cautious into Q3 earnings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | GS | @DanielTNiles | -0.30 | Poor bank performance and mixed results leave the author cautious into Q3 earnings. | -1.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | C | @DanielTNiles | -0.60 | Poor bank performance and mixed results leave the author cautious into Q3 earnings. | -3.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | WFC | @DanielTNiles | -0.50 | Poor bank performance and mixed results leave the author cautious into Q3 earnings. | +2.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | JPM | @DanielTNiles | -0.35 | Poor bank performance and mixed results leave the author cautious into Q3 earnings. | +0.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | NVDA | @DanielTNiles | -0.15 | Argues delayed and withdrawn AI IPOs signal tightening conditions for public-market financing. | -8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Prefers diversified sector exposure because single-stock semiconductor shorts face earnings risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Criticizes MMT after severe 2021 inflation and warns it may return to justify excessive spending. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @DanielTNiles | · | Warns that further bank-stock weakness after earnings would be a negative signal for the broader market. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.