Author

@davevermilion davevermilion

CMT technician calling sector rotation via relative strength and historical base rates

Posts intermarket and relative-strength analysis identifying

trader score
-2.22
hit rate
25%
mean α
-0.93%
signals 14d
141

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 25% hit rate, -0.93% mean alpha, trader score -2.22. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.6% since posting (mean over 64 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28CSCO@davevermilion+0.05Notes CSCO initially held up better than the market after its 2000 peak.
2026-08-28HAL@davevermilion+0.35Highlights a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders bottom in HAL.
2026-08-28GIS@davevermilion+0.25Reports GIS up 27% from its lows and 37% relative to semiconductors.
2026-08-28·@davevermilion·Warns that a market move toward liquidity would become concerning.·
2026-08-27TJX@davevermilion-0.75Says premium-valued TJX failed to deliver and was severely punished.+0.7%
2026-08-27FIX@davevermilion+0.40Places FIX in a favored engineering-and-construction basket while noting the view predates NVDA earnings.-6.0%
2026-08-27NVDA@davevermilion+0.00Places FIX in a favored engineering-and-construction basket while noting the view predates NVDA earnings.-4.6%
2026-08-27METC@davevermilion+0.15Discloses long positions in VG, SM, and LEU and a watch list of coal equities.-4.4%
2026-08-27BTU@davevermilion+0.15Discloses long positions in VG, SM, and LEU and a watch list of coal equities.·
2026-08-27AMR@davevermilion+0.15Discloses long positions in VG, SM, and LEU and a watch list of coal equities.-0.5%
2026-08-27SM@davevermilion+0.60Discloses long positions in VG, SM, and LEU and a watch list of coal equities.-0.5%
2026-08-27LEU@davevermilion+0.60Discloses long positions in VG, SM, and LEU and a watch list of coal equities.-9.8%
2026-08-27VG@davevermilion+0.60Discloses long positions in VG, SM, and LEU and a watch list of coal equities.-2.1%
2026-08-27·@davevermilion·Argues the SaaS downturn ended and software companies can successfully incorporate AI.·
2026-08-27VEEV@davevermilion+0.35Reports an AI tool ranked VEEV as the safest SaaS stock.-1.9%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.