@davevermilion davevermilion
CMT technician calling sector rotation via relative strength and historical base rates
Posts intermarket and relative-strength analysis identifying
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -1.66% mean alpha, trader score -2.03. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.3% since posting (mean over 93 mentions with price data).
The author is most clearly positioned long gold/miners and short financed-consumer credit names, especially CVNA. Distinctive calls include adding GDXJ on reversal confirmation, buying PRM for data-center fire suppression demand, avoiding FXI/KWEB while noting A-share divergence, and highlighting META relative weakness versus SPX. Late-window evidence shows a prior INTC long flipped short, but most other directional views read as consistent rather than a broad risk pivot.
The author is concentrated long gold/miner reversal and short financed-consumer credit, with CVNA the clearest disclosed short. There is one explicit flip: a prior INTC long is now discussed as short, while GDXJ is a planned add on confirmation rather than a completed scale-up. Single-name bullishness in PRM and SPCX appears opportunistic, while China exposure is split between constructive ASHR and avoidance of FXI/KWEB.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | SM | @davevermilion | +0.35 | Took first energy trade in SM today — Author states they took their first energy trade today in SM, implying a new long position. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VITL | @davevermilion | +0.35 | Says he would rather be in eggs/VITL. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MGNI | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Suggests MGNI may offer missing alpha. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ROOT | @davevermilion | +0.35 | Thanks ROOT, implying favorable move or performance. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ZS | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Says the recipient will want ZS and ROOT. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ROOT | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Says the recipient will want ZS and ROOT. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPY | @davevermilion | +0.00 | Says he owned CENX after buying last July and exited two months ago. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CENX | @davevermilion | +0.10 | Says he owned CENX after buying last July and exited two months ago. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | QCOM | @davevermilion | +0.25 | Past-tense comment that QCOM was fun, implying a completed move/trade. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CALM | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Quips that outer space will need eggs and names VITL and CALM. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VITL | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Quips that outer space will need eggs and names VITL and CALM. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | GO | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Behavioral rotation call favoring non-tech laggards and bottom fishing versus crowded tech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MGNI | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Behavioral rotation call favoring non-tech laggards and bottom fishing versus crowded tech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CALM | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Behavioral rotation call favoring non-tech laggards and bottom fishing versus crowded tech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | VITL | @davevermilion | +0.45 | Behavioral rotation call favoring non-tech laggards and bottom fishing versus crowded tech. | — | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.