Author
@davevermilion davevermilion
grade Ax.com/davevermilion ↗
CMT technician calling sector rotation via relative strength and historical base rates
Posts intermarket and relative-strength analysis identifying
trader score
-0.54
hit rate
55%
mean α
-0.69%
signals 14d
140
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.69% mean alpha, trader score -0.54. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.1% since posting (mean over 52 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @davevermilion | · | Calls tech cooked and identifies a large bear flag while comparing concentration with the 2000 peak. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @davevermilion | · | Credit chart suggests movement toward safety while high-yield conditions approach historically corrective levels. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | POWL | @davevermilion | -0.75 | Reports POWL falling from $328 to $167. | -11.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | STRL | @davevermilion | -0.80 | Calls major tops across construction stocks and cites STRL falling from $1,000 to $431. | -20.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @davevermilion | · | Notes overhead resistance and says the recovery will reveal data-center sentiment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | EQIX | @davevermilion | -0.55 | Questions whether EQIX is still a buy while pointing to a negative chart. | -4.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @davevermilion | · | Says investors are rotating toward safety and questioning long-duration AI, quantum, and space stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @davevermilion | · | Only 38.67% of Nikkei 225 members are above the 50-day average; author prefers a washout to 10%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @davevermilion | · | Flags Japan and Taiwan charts without visible data or stated direction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @davevermilion | · | References a high-yield-spread chart without describing its direction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @davevermilion | · | Claims vindication after previously opposing a bullish Korea trade. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @davevermilion | · | Expects commercial-real-estate stress to rise unless yields fall very rapidly. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @davevermilion | · | Warns that many AI model providers will be unable to achieve desired pricing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @davevermilion | · | Expresses disbelief that investors want REIT exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @davevermilion | · | Identifies support at 4100 and a next downside level at 4000, but omits the underlying index. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.