Author

@davidsettle davidsettle

grade Bx.com/davidsettle ↗

CMT technician fusing secular-cycle base rates with live breadth and intermarket divergence reads

Publishes index-level market outlooks and regime analysis gr

trader score
-0.31
hit rate
35%
mean α
-0.05%
signals 14d
34

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -0.05% mean alpha, trader score -0.31. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.7% since posting (mean over 16 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-10-14DELL@davidsettle-0.40Notes Dell's downgrade and SMH's 3.98% fall despite lower closing yields.-10.1%
2026-10-14SMH@davidsettle-0.50Notes Dell's downgrade and SMH's 3.98% fall despite lower closing yields.-6.6%
2026-10-13SPX@davidsettle-0.65Frames the mature SPX advance as a historical blow-off-top regime rather than a new secular bull.·
2026-10-12SPX@davidsettle-0.38Argues the mature secular bull cycle is historically extended and vulnerable to a major correction.·
2026-10-09IGV@davidsettle+0.30Reports a software rebound of 2.81% while semiconductors fell 0.65%, with banks still lagging.-1.8%
2026-10-09SMH@davidsettle-0.15Reports a software rebound of 2.81% while semiconductors fell 0.65%, with banks still lagging.-12.6%
2026-10-09·@davidsettle·Broader-market repair is described as tentative pending technology stabilization·
2026-10-08IWM@davidsettle+0.10Quantifies semiconductor weakness, equal-weight gains and a bank rebound-0.7%
2026-10-08RSP@davidsettle+0.20Quantifies semiconductor weakness, equal-weight gains and a bank rebound+2.2%
2026-10-08SPY@davidsettle+0.10Quantifies semiconductor weakness, equal-weight gains and a bank rebound-1.8%
2026-10-08KRE@davidsettle+0.20Quantifies semiconductor weakness, equal-weight gains and a bank rebound+4.1%
2026-10-08SMH@davidsettle-0.30Quantifies semiconductor weakness, equal-weight gains and a bank rebound-13.2%
2026-10-07SPX@davidsettle-0.55Warns exceptional five-year returns historically precede corrections and an eventual secular bear.·
2026-10-07SPX@davidsettle-0.45Cites severe small-cap divergence at an SPX high as a condition that typically precedes corrections.·
2026-10-07RUT@davidsettle-0.55Cites severe small-cap divergence at an SPX high as a condition that typically precedes corrections.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.