@DeepValueBagger DeepValueBagger
Opinionated AI-hardware supply-chain bull and SaaS skeptic who shows his book
Posts conviction long calls and bear theses, mostly in repli
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-10-18.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, +1.94% mean alpha, trader score +2.68. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +12.9% since posting (mean over 74 mentions with price data).
The author discloses a large memory position, favors MU's resilience, and argues ASTS faces technical, launch-partner and market-penetration risks while preferring RKLB. Their selective read favors memory over riskier infrastructure exposure and questions AVGO's leadership messaging. On October 13, they disclosed exiting CRDO, VRT and COHR and reallocating proceeds into VOO.
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA's high-margin supercar strategy is smart, and its concept car can seed production innovations. | TSLA | ▲ | 0.35 | 2 | · | Tesla product strategy and confi | tweet ↗ |
| VOO is the destination for proceeds from selling three individual stocks. | VOO | ▲ | 0.29 | 4 | ✓ | Memory resilience and rotation a | tweet ↗ |
| ASTS's reliance on a competing rocket owner undermines its moat and creates launch-partner risk. | ASTS | ▼ | 0.16 | 2 | ✓ | Satellite execution risks and pr | tweet ↗ |
| MU's memory exposure is attractive, with HBM driving its future and resilience distinguishing it from higher-risk names. | MU | ▲ | 0.13 | 2 | ✓ | Memory resilience and rotation a | tweet ↗ |
| AVGO's CEO is damaging sentiment with bearish AI messaging, potentially disqualifying the stock as an investment. | AVGO | ▼ | 0.05 | 3 | · | AI investment cases challenged b | tweet ↗ |
| ASTS's technical progress and satellite execution do not justify investor enthusiasm. | ASTS | ▼ | 0.04 | 4 | ✓ | Satellite execution risks and pr | tweet ↗ |
| RKLB offers higher quality and preferable timelines for capital rotating away from an ASTS short. | RKLB | ▲ | 0.03 | 2 | · | Satellite execution risks and pr | tweet ↗ |
Bearish attention is concentrated on ASTS, which accounts for 17 of 20 satellite-theme signals, while RKLB is the preferred alternative. The explicit portfolio change is the October 13 exit from CRDO, VRT and COHR into VOO, alongside a disclosed large memory position and favorable MU commentary. Concentration alone does not establish pump risk, particularly where the dominant commentary is bearish.
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | 23 | -0.66 | 2 | 1 | 0 | short call | ✓ short (has position) |
| MU | 5 | +0.41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | hold disclosed | ✓ long (has position) |
| VOO | 1 | +0.55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | hold disclosed | ✓ long (has position) |
| AVGO | 6 | -0.42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| TSLA | 4 | +0.42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| INTC | 4 | -0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPCX | 3 | +0.55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| CRDO | 3 | -0.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| COHR | 2 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| BE | 2 | -0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| IREN | 2 | -0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| FCEL | 2 | -0.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| VRT | 2 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| LITE | 1 | +0.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ONDS | 1 | -0.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| SIVE | 1 | -0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| NVDA | 1 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| RKLB | 1 | +0.75 | 1 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| TE | 1 | -0.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| SNPS | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CRWV | 1 | -0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| MRVL | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CIFR | 1 | -0.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| APP | 1 | -0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| CDNS | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AAOI | 1 | -0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TSM | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| PLTR | 1 | +0.70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| NUAI | 1 | -0.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| QCOM | 1 | +0.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| EOSE | 1 | -0.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| NBIS | 1 | -0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
pair trade 2
| date | ticker | what they said | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | ASTS | Advocates rotating capital from an ASTS short thesis into long RKLB because of quality and timeline risks. | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | RKLB | Favors long RKLB as the higher-quality destination for capital rotating away from an ASTS short. | tweet ↗ |
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TSLA | @DeepValueBagger | +0.45 | Defends Tesla's concept car as a useful showcase that can seed production innovations. | +4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSLA | @DeepValueBagger | +0.70 | Calls Tesla's move into high-margin electric supercars strategically brilliant. | +2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @DeepValueBagger | -0.75 | Reiterates a year-long bearish CRWV thesis based on its leveraged balance sheet. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @DeepValueBagger | · | Calls energy 2026's fastest sector and argues geopolitical escalation will push it higher. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | VRT | @DeepValueBagger | -0.50 | Discloses selling three stocks and reallocating the proceeds into VOO. | -18.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | CRDO | @DeepValueBagger | -0.50 | Discloses selling three stocks and reallocating the proceeds into VOO. | -25.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | VOO | @DeepValueBagger | +0.55 | Discloses selling three stocks and reallocating the proceeds into VOO. | -2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | COHR | @DeepValueBagger | -0.50 | Discloses selling three stocks and reallocating the proceeds into VOO. | -27.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SIVE | @DeepValueBagger | -0.20 | Discloses a large memory position and praises MU's resilience versus higher-risk names. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | VRT | @DeepValueBagger | -0.20 | Discloses a large memory position and praises MU's resilience versus higher-risk names. | -18.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AAOI | @DeepValueBagger | -0.20 | Discloses a large memory position and praises MU's resilience versus higher-risk names. | -31.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | CRDO | @DeepValueBagger | -0.20 | Discloses a large memory position and praises MU's resilience versus higher-risk names. | -25.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | COHR | @DeepValueBagger | -0.20 | Discloses a large memory position and praises MU's resilience versus higher-risk names. | -27.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | MU | @DeepValueBagger | +0.55 | Discloses a large memory position and praises MU's resilience versus higher-risk names. | -7.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | ASTS | @DeepValueBagger | -0.55 | Reiterates an original bearish thesis concerning ASTS launch-partner risk. | -15.5% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.