Author · brief 2026-08-16
@DonJamesTrades DonJamesTrades
grade Cx.com/DonJamesTrades ↗
Daily macro-calendar publisher and intraday futures trader running a paid trading room
Posts a recurring daily slate of market-moving macro events
trader score
+2.89
hit rate
70%
mean α
+0.64%
signals 14d
71
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-08-16.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 70% hit rate, +0.64% mean alpha, trader score +2.89. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.0% since posting (mean over 47 mentions with price data).
Macro calendars dominate as crude positioning repeatedly changes direction
No equity positions were disclosed; the author primarily circulated earnings calendars, macro releases, and tactical futures commentary. The distinctive call was a volatile crude view that turned bearish midweek before returning bullish on geopolitical supply risk, followed late Friday by a new Dow-futures long setup.
Disclosed booknames the author says they hold — positions, not commentary
No positions disclosed this window — everything below is commentary, not book talk.
Themes3analyst read · 2026-08-16
Hypotheses9what the author said, ticker-anchored — ✓ skin = disclosed position behind it
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude can remain firm when Iran and Hormuz tensions threaten supply. | CL | ▲ | 0.10 | 2 | · | Geopolitical crude volatility an | tweet ↗ |
| USO should benefit from geopolitical supply risks supporting higher oil prices. | USO | ▲ | 0.09 | 2 | · | Geopolitical crude volatility an | tweet ↗ |
| NQ received positive earnings read-through before mixed PPI data pressured equity futures. | NQ | ◆ | 0.04 | 3 | · | Inflation releases driving equit | tweet ↗ |
| ES was firmer before PPI, then declined initially after the mixed inflation release. | ES | ▼ | 0.03 | 2 | · | Inflation releases driving equit | tweet ↗ |
| Crude offered a sizable short opportunity as oil fell more than 3%. | CL | ▼ | 0.02 | 2 | · | Geopolitical crude volatility an | tweet ↗ |
| CAVA remained on the earnings watchlist across consecutive sessions without a directional view. | CAVA | ◆ | 0.00 | 2 | · | Repeated earnings-event watchlis | tweet ↗ |
| LITE remained a monitored earnings event without an expressed bullish or bearish thesis. | LITE | ◆ | 0.00 | 2 | · | Repeated earnings-event watchlis | tweet ↗ |
| SE appeared repeatedly as an earnings-calendar marker rather than a trade recommendation. | SE | ◆ | 0.00 | 2 | · | Repeated earnings-event watchlis | tweet ↗ |
| ONON was repeatedly flagged for earnings, with no accompanying directional call. | ONON | ◆ | 0.00 | 2 | · | Repeated earnings-event watchlis | tweet ↗ |
Direction this week
The crude view flipped from bullish on Hormuz risk to bearish trade recaps during the midweek decline, then back to bullish Friday on Iran-related supply risk. A new Dow-futures long appeared late Friday, but there were no position disclosures or adds, trims, or exits. Activity was dominated by neutral event calendars, limiting evidence of sustained single-name conviction.
Per-ticker coverage64positions first, then by signal count
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQ | 7 | +0.02 | 0 | 0 | 5 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CL | 6 | -0.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ES | 4 | -0.08 | 0 | 0 | 3 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| USO | 3 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPCX | 2 | -0.55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| CAVA | 2 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| FLY | 2 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| LITE | 2 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SE | 2 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ONON | 2 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CRWV | 1 | +0.60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| STEX | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ACMR | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ALAB | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| RKLB | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SLE | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| DLO | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| OKLO | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| JD | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| EDBL | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| DGXX | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| VST | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| VRTX | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| WEN | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| IONQ | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| KULR | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| NET | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| LLY | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| PLUG | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| STRL | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| QUBT | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| RGTI | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CELH | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| BWXT | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPOT | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ACHR | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ASTS | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SNAP | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ANET | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| BN | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| APP | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| UA | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TTD | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| NVO | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| PFE | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TTWO | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ABNB | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AMZN | 1 | +0.50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ON | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TAN | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ONDS | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| BRK.B | 1 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ZETA | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SMCI | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| DTST | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| QBTS | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| UAMY | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SOUN | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SHOP | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SIDU | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| USAR | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| LUNR | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CAT | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| GRAB | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
Conviction trades1explicit CALL_DIRECTIONAL actions, receipts included
initiate long 1
| date | ticker | what they said | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | · | Initiated a Dow-futures long setup using named technical indicators. | tweet ↗ |
News / data points5discrete events + data the author reported
BRK.B Reported Berkshire share repurchases and interpreted them positively.
CRWV Reported doubled quarterly revenue and strong guidance with positive premarket implications.
NQ Linked strong earnings and guidance to positive premarket Nasdaq-futures read-through.
ES Reported mixed PPI figures and an initial decline in equity futures.
NQ Reported mixed PPI figures and the immediate negative futures reaction.
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
▲Berkshire's $72.50-per-share all-cash Taylor Morrison acquisition crystallizes immediate shareholder value at a sizable
▲Macy's Q1 beat and raised FY guidance validate the turnaround and support further equity re-rating.
◆QUBT's scheduled Q2 release created a concentrated near-term volatility catalyst without providing a directional forecas
◆Q1 2027 earnings on July 8 before the bell was the dominant near-term event catalyst.
◆SMPL’s July 9 earnings event was a near-term volatility catalyst highlighted across calendars and implied-move lists.
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | BOTZ | @DonJamesTrades | -0.45 | Weak Chinese humanoid-robot deployments are framed as likely pressure on robotics equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | BWLP | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Calendar lists today's macro releases, Jackson Hole and reporting companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NA | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Calendar lists today's macro releases, Jackson Hole and reporting companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | MNSO | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Calendar lists today's macro releases, Jackson Hole and reporting companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | CHA | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Calendar lists today's macro releases, Jackson Hole and reporting companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | HAFN | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Calendar lists today's macro releases, Jackson Hole and reporting companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @DonJamesTrades | -0.05 | Reports Nvidia agreeing to buy Hugging Face for $12.9B and expects support for AI names. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | AFRM | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Lists the day's macro releases and earnings calendar while expressing caution. | +0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | RBRK | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Lists the day's macro releases and earnings calendar while expressing caution. | -13.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | WDAY | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Lists the day's macro releases and earnings calendar while expressing caution. | +5.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Lists the day's macro releases and earnings calendar while expressing caution. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | S | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Lists the day's macro releases and earnings calendar while expressing caution. | -5.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ULTA | @DonJamesTrades | +0.00 | Lists the day's macro releases and earnings calendar while expressing caution. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | ES | @DonJamesTrades | -0.20 | Mortgage rates at 6.78% and weakening applications may pressure rate-sensitive equities. | -1.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NQ | @DonJamesTrades | -0.20 | Mortgage rates at 6.78% and weakening applications may pressure rate-sensitive equities. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.