Author

@dylan522p dylan522p

SemiAnalysis founder delivering primary-sourced semiconductor and AI-infrastructure supply-chain intelligence

Original deep-dive analysis of the AI/semiconductor supply c

trader score
+0.41
hit rate
57%
mean α
+0.29%
signals 14d
14

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 14 scored bets: 57% hit rate, +0.29% mean alpha, trader score +0.41. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.4% since posting (mean over 8 mentions with price data).

Recent signals14receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-26·@dylan522p·Says an unnamed party explicitly rejected disaggregated architecture at Hot Chips.·
2026-08-25AMD@dylan522p+0.80Author explicitly expresses strong enthusiasm for AMD.-2.8%
2026-08-25NVDA@dylan522p+0.20Expresses affection for Nvidia, though the question mark makes the stance somewhat playful.+2.1%
2026-08-24·@dylan522p·Claims organized groups are promoting false narratives about data-center water use and noise.·
2026-08-23·@dylan522p·Claims CCP funding supports organized opposition to AI and data-center development.·
2026-08-21ASML@dylan522p-0.15Argues ASML lithography tools cannot be produced or operated without the US supply chain.-3.8%
2026-08-21·@dylan522p·Observes revenue-generating AI startups transforming into neocloud infrastructure providers with added services.·
2026-08-21·@dylan522p·Warns that reported ARR may be annualized run rate built from one-time, lumpy revenue rather than recurring sales.·
2026-08-21ASML@dylan522p+0.10Dismisses a preceding claim by arguing its implication would make ASML tool production impossible.-3.8%
2026-08-16·@dylan522p·Says flawed PJM modeling and auctions cost ratepayers $12B and impede new grid capacity.·
2026-08-15NVDA@dylan522p+0.00Updates semiconductor research: Micron yields improved after Nvidia revised HBM4 requirements and Broadcom volumes were cut-3.4%
2026-08-15AVGO@dylan522p-0.15Updates semiconductor research: Micron yields improved after Nvidia revised HBM4 requirements and Broadcom volumes were cut-6.2%
2026-08-15MU@dylan522p+0.25Updates semiconductor research: Micron yields improved after Nvidia revised HBM4 requirements and Broadcom volumes were cut-4.0%
2026-08-15AMD@dylan522p+0.00Updates semiconductor research: Micron yields improved after Nvidia revised HBM4 requirements and Broadcom volumes were cut-9.5%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.