Author

@EddyElfenbein EddyElfenbein

Long-running market historian who contextualizes the tape with base rates and data

Posts a steady stream of well-sourced price-performance data

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
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Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -7.6% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).

Recent signals14receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-10-16VIX@EddyElfenbein+0.20The text references VIX movement, but the linked chart is required to determine magnitude.·
2026-10-16·@EddyElfenbein·High-beta assets are near correction territory while low-volatility assets remain resilient.·
2026-10-14·@EddyElfenbein·Reports high-beta assets were hit much harder than the broader market during the session.·
2026-10-14SPX@EddyElfenbein+0.00Reports the S&P 500 has not declined more than 1% in a day since late July.·
2026-10-13·@EddyElfenbein·Sarcastically says housing is attractive only for all-cash buyers.·
2026-10-12·@EddyElfenbein·Shared headline argues weakening seller pricing is negative for homebuilders.·
2026-10-12AMZN@EddyElfenbein+0.00Four major technology firms are expected to spend $750 billion on capex this year.-4.4%
2026-10-12MSFT@EddyElfenbein+0.00Four major technology firms are expected to spend $750 billion on capex this year.-3.1%
2026-10-12GOOGL@EddyElfenbein+0.00Four major technology firms are expected to spend $750 billion on capex this year.-9.2%
2026-10-12META@EddyElfenbein+0.00Four major technology firms are expected to spend $750 billion on capex this year.-13.5%
2026-10-08·@EddyElfenbein·New York Fed research attributes inflation in many everyday goods entirely to tariffs.·
2026-10-06·@EddyElfenbein·Characterizes employment gains as occurring without a genuine economic recovery.·
2026-10-06·@EddyElfenbein·Reports Wall Street profits are heading above $90B, supporting record bonus expectations.·
2026-10-05·@EddyElfenbein·Reports unemployment has remained below 5% for 61 months versus a 64-month record.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.