Author

@EddyElfenbein EddyElfenbein

Long-running market historian who contextualizes the tape with base rates and data

Posts a steady stream of well-sourced price-performance data

trader score
-0.41
hit rate
42%
mean α
-0.20%
signals 14d
25

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 19 scored bets: 42% hit rate, -0.20% mean alpha, trader score -0.41. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.5% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27NVDA@EddyElfenbein-0.10Nvidia lost 10% from the start of 2002 through the end of 2014.-4.6%
2026-08-27·@EddyElfenbein·Dark humor implies housing affordability is eroding the middle class.·
2026-08-27·@EddyElfenbein·Reports that Chinese hackers breached the Federal Reserve, followed by a joke about Fed thinking.·
2026-08-26·@EddyElfenbein·Frames the Fed as under pressure to raise interest rates.·
2026-08-25DKS@EddyElfenbein-0.55DKS is reported down 29%.+8.7%
2026-08-25·@EddyElfenbein·The post presents a chart of the median sales price for new houses.·
2026-08-25·@EddyElfenbein·The SEC is reportedly investigating the near-collapse of an AI hedge fund.·
2026-08-24GOOS@EddyElfenbein-0.20States that Canada Goose is down.·
2026-08-21XLI@EddyElfenbein+0.00Chart observation notes a weak but visible correlation between XLI and Russell 2000 relative strength.-1.7%
2026-08-21IWM@EddyElfenbein+0.00Chart observation notes a weak but visible correlation between XLI and Russell 2000 relative strength.-1.4%
2026-08-21·@EddyElfenbein·Source estimates U.S. war and military-operation costs at over $8 trillion since 2001.·
2026-08-20KO@EddyElfenbein+0.35Coca-Cola reached an all-time high, with good absolute but weak relative long-term performance.-0.9%
2026-08-19·@EddyElfenbein·Provides visual context for the scale of $40T national debt, but the image is unavailable.·
2026-08-19COST@EddyElfenbein+0.20Jokes retrospectively that Costco should have been bought at the exact low; no forward intent.-1.2%
2026-08-19·@EddyElfenbein·Reports Treasury doubling debt buybacks to stabilize the bond market.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.