@EddyElfenbein EddyElfenbein
Long-running market historian who contextualizes the tape with base rates and data
Posts a steady stream of well-sourced price-performance data
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.01% mean alpha, trader score +0.04. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.3% since posting (mean over 11 mentions with price data).
EddyElfenbein is mostly observing macro and market-tape dispersion rather than making trade calls. The clearest market read is semiconductors outperforming while energy and defense lag, alongside mixed Bitcoin framing and scattered macro headlines on inflation, war, Fed leadership, and reform. No explicit adds, trims, exits, or directional calls appear in this window.
No explicit trade actions, position disclosures, adds, trims, exits, or flips appear in the supplied signals. The author’s attention is concentrated on market dispersion, with semis outperforming energy and defense, plus mixed Bitcoin framing and macro headline risk. Theme-level evidence is thin and largely observational, so conviction should be treated as low despite high source credibility.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | S&P 500 rose 0.01 points; hypothetical compounded daily gain would be less than 3.5% over a century. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Author gives the jobs report a negative assessment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Manufacturing jobs post-Covid bounce has largely faded. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Unemployment rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.5% for 16 months. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Two index-like close values are reported without naming the instrument. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Post-midterm 12-month returns have not been negative since 1950, average gain +16.3%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | The yen is at a 40-year low against the dollar. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Author lists earnings, dividends, diversification and yield as key investing pillars. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | SPX | @EddyElfenbein | +0.25 | FactSet's 12-month S&P 500 target is 8,918.27. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Notes 294 S&P 500 stocks are down while the overall index is up. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | MCD | @EddyElfenbein | -0.35 | Tweet notes a two-year low for McDonald's. | +4.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Two-year Treasury yield is significantly above the Fed's rate. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Tweet states a 34% chance of two rate hikes this year. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @EddyElfenbein | · | Author says he remains cautiously optimistic, without a specific asset. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | SPY | @EddyElfenbein | +0.10 | Author contextualizes S&P 500 daily loss as less than 2.5% annualized if repeated. | +1.4% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.