Author
@elerianm elerianm
grade Ax.com/elerianm ↗
Named institutional macro economist building causal cross-asset regime frameworks in real time
Publishes dense, original macro commentary synthesizing rate
trader score
+0.38
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.77%
signals 14d
44
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 6 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.77% mean alpha, trader score +0.38. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.1% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @elerianm | · | Interprets 2s10s and 2s30s flattening as near-term hawkish repricing and long-term Fed credibility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @elerianm | · | Argues market-implied September hike probabilities are too high, citing inflation and productivity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @elerianm | · | Yen weakened to 160 per dollar, while Treasury warned disorderly moves could destabilize markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @elerianm | · | Endorses Warsh's policy framework, including less forward guidance and AI as a factor of production. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @elerianm | · | Frames Warsh's Jackson Hole address as balancing immediate guidance against longer-term structural policy issues. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @elerianm | · | Reports Japan spent $96B supporting the yen, which later weakened toward a potential 160 intervention trigger. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @elerianm | · | Initial jobless claims fell to 203K versus 208K expected, signaling labor resilience. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @elerianm | · | Frames mortgage rates as increasingly shaped by politics, geopolitics and national security. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @elerianm | · | Reports July PCE and spending data, then says September hike odds near 40% are too high. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @elerianm | · | US home sales and consumer confidence missed expectations, signaling softer activity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @elerianm | · | Germany's revised Q2 GDP and August IFO confidence exceeded expectations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @elerianm | · | KOSPI realized volatility spiked near 100 and decoupled sharply from the S&P 500. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @elerianm | · | Summarizes a 3% oil decline, a 3bp drop in the U.S. 10-year yield and escalating China-U.S. sanctions tensions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @elerianm | · | Bessent says no extra bonds have been bought and identifies Sep. 9 for reassessing larger buybacks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @elerianm | · | Bessent says secondary sanctions will intensify US pressure on Iran, with China targeting undecided. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.