@elerianm elerianm
Named institutional macro economist building causal cross-asset regime frameworks in real time
Publishes dense, original macro commentary synthesizing rate
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.9% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Elerianm is not presenting a stock-picking or trading tape this week; the stream is almost entirely macro, with one AMZN-related valuation comparison tied to SpaceX. The distinctive read is that policy regimes, capital supply, energy disinflation, and China/global growth imbalances matter more than single-name equities. No explicit position adds, trims, exits, or directional stock calls appear in the payload.
No explicit trading conviction, adds, trims, exits, or position flips appear in this author window. The concentration is macro: central-bank recalibration, energy-driven disinflation, China/export imbalance, and private-market capital formation. Single-name exposure is minimal, with AMZN only appearing as a benchmark comparison to SpaceX valuation rather than a direct trade call.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | OWL | @elerianm | +0.35 | Says OWL rose despite redemption headlines as market looked to lower redemptions and no defaults. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @elerianm | · | June payrolls missed at 57K while unemployment fell to 4.2%, with Fed hike expectations dampened. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @elerianm | · | South Korean markets fell nearly 8%, with expected limited spillover into US tech stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @elerianm | · | Lists consensus expectations for June US jobs data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Cites Bloomberg that yen hit a 1986 low amid rate gap and fiscal concerns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | BTC | @elerianm | -0.25 | Summarizes asset class performance, noting Bitcoin's YTD decline deepened. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Views Warsh tapping Mervyn King for Fed reform task force as encouraging. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | ISM prices paid fell sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, below 77.5 consensus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Suggests Warsh appointment could catalyze positive central banking evolution. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Reports Lagarde's shift from forward guidance to framework guidance at Sintra. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Warns Japan must consider intervention, tighter fiscal policy, and aggressive monetary policy to support yen. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Notes hawkish interpretation of Warsh rate view contributed to 2s10s spread at 31 bps. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @elerianm | · | Eurozone June inflation and core inflation came in below consensus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @elerianm | · | Reports Nasdaq gained 21% and S&P gained 15% in the quarter, best in six years. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @elerianm | · | FT column framework on divergent central bank reactions to a global shock. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.