Author
@firstadopter firstadopter
grade Ax.com/firstadopter ↗
Early, mechanistic AI-compute bull mapping scarcity down to specific semis beneficiaries
Original thematic analysis of the AI compute supply chain —
trader score
-1.36
hit rate
40%
mean α
-0.66%
signals 14d
165
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -0.66% mean alpha, trader score -1.36. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.4% since posting (mean over 75 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Uses a 13.8x token-usage jump after discounts as evidence that cheaper AI drives exponential demand. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @firstadopter | +0.20 | Questions a safety rotation into Mag 7 stocks excluding Nvidia, implicitly favoring NVDA relatively. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Reports the 30-year Treasury yield falling after Warsh's speech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Calls Warsh's anti-QE statement the speech's most historically important passage. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Warsh says the Fed has more work if underlying inflation does not move sufficiently toward target. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Warsh says inflation expectations are anchored but require close monitoring to preserve price stability. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Warsh says better summer PCE and CPI readings do not show meaningful improvement in underlying inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Warsh cites 3.7% annual and 4.1% six-month PCE inflation and prioritizes price stability. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Warsh says current labor-market conditions are consistent with full employment. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Warsh reiterates opposition to routine QE, favoring rates as the primary policy tool. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Endorses ChatGPT's interpretation that Warsh's speech is meaningfully hawkish for front-end rates. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Endorses a detailed hawkish reading of Warsh on inflation, labor, forward guidance and QE. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @firstadopter | · | Argues human creativity protects game development from major AI disruption for a long time. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @firstadopter | +0.62 | States Nvidia's 2027 revenue growth proved higher, reinforcing a bullish semiconductor view. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @firstadopter | +0.82 | Bullish supply-chain thesis argues NVDA's scale and commitments enable far more revenue than estimates imply. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.