@FransBakker9812 FransBakker9812
Obsessive bottom-up AI-datacenter analyst; long IREN, proud NBIS bear
Builds deep fundamental theses on AI compute-infrastructure
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -0.40% mean alpha, trader score -0.25. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -10.0% since posting (mean over 90 mentions with price data).
FransBakker9812 is overwhelmingly focused on AI data-center power and neocloud capacity, with IREN as the clear center of gravity. His distinctive read is that secured power, GPU timing, and monetization deals matter more than near-term price action or dilution fears, while NBIS/BE is framed as operationally promising but permit-sensitive. The only explicit fresh directional trade is adding KRKNF next week, while disclosed positions include starting PRIM, adding UAMY, holding STUB risk reversals, and hanging on to IREN.
Conviction intensified around IREN through repeated operational checks, GPU timing discussion, NVDA deal expectations, and pushback against bearish dilution framing. The author added or started smaller disclosed longs in PRIM and UAMY, held STUB risk reversals, stayed with IREN, and ended the window with an explicit plan to add KRKNF. Concentration is high in IREN, creating pump-risk around a single neocloud capacity thesis, while NBIS/BE is more mixed due to permit and MSFT tranche concerns.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | CIFR | @FransBakker9812 | +0.55 | Author says he is not leaving as CIFR holder, regardless of IREN position. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.00 | Author says he is not leaving as CIFR holder, regardless of IREN position. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @FransBakker9812 | -0.20 | Suggests NBIS CEO sold before MSFT deal but notes plan may have been scheduled. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MSFT | @FransBakker9812 | +0.00 | Suggests NBIS CEO sold before MSFT deal but notes plan may have been scheduled. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.40 | IREN appoints product and development chiefs to expand AI Cloud and data center platform. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.60 | Will buy 100 shares if 120MW AI compute comes online this year — Author states conditional future purchase of IREN shares if compute capacity comes online. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NBIS | @FransBakker9812 | -0.70 | Says Nebius below 200 is coming. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | CLSK | @FransBakker9812 | -0.20 | Defends long-term IREN thesis versus YTD performance and compares with CLSK holders. | -7.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.45 | Defends long-term IREN thesis versus YTD performance and compares with CLSK holders. | -10.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.25 | Defends IREN against YTD criticism and mocks critics' profitability claims. | -10.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | CLSK | @FransBakker9812 | +0.00 | Author explicitly says Long IREN while criticizing NBIS bulls and approach. | -7.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.75 | Author explicitly says Long IREN while criticizing NBIS bulls and approach. | -10.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NBIS | @FransBakker9812 | -0.55 | Author explicitly says Long IREN while criticizing NBIS bulls and approach. | -5.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | IREN | @FransBakker9812 | +0.45 | Says IREN can fix issues and deals or partnerships can change everything overnight. | -10.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @FransBakker9812 | +0.00 | Argues NBIS AI cloud deal optics are weak while IREN avoided Meta exposure. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.