Author
@GavinSBaker GavinSBaker
grade Ax.com/GavinSBaker ↗
Institutional growth PM dissecting the AI compute stack with engineering-grade depth
Posts original, technically deep fundamental analysis of AI
trader score
-1.44
hit rate
29%
mean α
-0.55%
signals 14d
39
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 17 scored bets: 29% hit rate, -0.55% mean alpha, trader score -1.44. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -8.3% since posting (mean over 11 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | The author argues hyperscaler revenue is a better AI metric than the ARR of a share-losing company. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | The author expresses gratitude for AI credit concerns and favorably references 25% industry limits. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | The author is constructive through year-end but advocates puts, diversification, and defensive ballast. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Calls previously discussed deals fake and challenges the credibility of stated commitments. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Dismisses unfunded semiconductor and supply-chain MOUs absent from an S-1 filing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AVGO | @GavinSBaker | +0.25 | Argues Anthropic can fund cloud commitments and Broadcom spending through financing. | -10.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Treats the potential reduction of stated commitments as evidence supporting skepticism. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AVGO | @GavinSBaker | +0.25 | Argues Anthropic's cloud and Broadcom commitments are manageable and financeable. | -10.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | NVDA | @GavinSBaker | +0.55 | Predicts Blackwell accelerators will retain useful lives exceeding ten years. | -7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | MSFT | @GavinSBaker | +0.40 | Argues open-weight models compress model margins, increase compute demand and benefit infrastructure providers. | -3.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AMZN | @GavinSBaker | +0.40 | Argues open-weight models compress model margins, increase compute demand and benefit infrastructure providers. | -4.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AVGO | @GavinSBaker | +0.45 | Argues open-weight models compress model margins, increase compute demand and benefit infrastructure providers. | -10.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | GOOGL | @GavinSBaker | +0.40 | Argues open-weight models compress model margins, increase compute demand and benefit infrastructure providers. | -9.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | NVDA | @GavinSBaker | +0.35 | Argues open-weight models compress model margins, increase compute demand and benefit infrastructure providers. | -7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | AVGO | @GavinSBaker | +0.50 | Bullish long-term framework for AI infrastructure, cloud and applications amid model fragmentation. | -10.0% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.