Author
@GavinSBaker GavinSBaker
grade Ax.com/GavinSBaker ↗
Institutional growth PM dissecting the AI compute stack with engineering-grade depth
Posts original, technically deep fundamental analysis of AI
trader score
+0.67
hit rate
44%
mean α
+0.52%
signals 14d
27
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 18 scored bets: 44% hit rate, +0.52% mean alpha, trader score +0.67. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -2.9% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Strongly positive view of U.S. data-center development. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Highlights that Jalapeño entered a third-party benchmark before TPUs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Compares model-size tradeoffs between interactivity and throughput and flags AFFN disaggregation as a variable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | AMZN | @GavinSBaker | +0.20 | Jalapeño beats a comparable TPU but may trail disaggregated GPU/Trainium-plus-SRAM configurations. | +2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Argues frontier models have greater intelligence density and compute efficiency per token. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Views open-source model share gains as positive broadly but negative for model companies. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Expects Ultrafast AI capacity constraints to ease as wafer, server, and energization cycles progress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Dismisses concern over Fable 5 usage data as evidence of customer preference for ZDR. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Predicts disaggregated inference will become the dominant AI-serving architecture. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | High-conviction view that enterprises will use a data-safe hybrid AI architecture. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Expects broad adoption of zHBM or a similar memory architecture. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Expects accelerator firms to adopt 3D DRAM or zHBM, with both memory types coexisting long term. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Rapidly rising internal AI spending supports a thesis that token scale is becoming competitively necessary. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Explains compute savings through the margin gap between frontier and open-source tokens. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @GavinSBaker | · | Says relative inference margins will determine the competitive outcome. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.