Author
@gnoble79 gnoble79
grade Ax.com/gnoble79 ↗
Forensic fundamental short-seller waging a valuation war on the Musk/AI bubble
Posts original, valuation-driven bear theses on hype names (
trader score
-1.28
hit rate
30%
mean α
-1.16%
signals 14d
66
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -1.16% mean alpha, trader score -1.28. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.5% since posting (mean over 19 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Warns headline index strength masks rotation from tech and deteriorating data-center supply-chain margins. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Bearish framework links a $2.3T debt wall, risky AI financing, local inference, and data-center resistance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Names gold and energy as favored areas in a reply. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @gnoble79 | -0.85 | Alleges Nvidia's 70% growth forecast and Anthropic IPO timing form a financing shell game. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @gnoble79 | -1.00 | Calls Nvidia and AI a historic capital-allocation bubble and predicts an epic bust. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Calls AI the largest capital misallocation in history and endorses a supporting critique. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Warns buyers and calls AI the biggest capital misallocation in history. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Recaps 12 past long calls, 11 winners, and a 29% average return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Recaps 12 prior long calls, 11 winners and a 29% average return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Recaps 12 past long calls with 11 winners and a 29% average return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Recaps 12 past long calls, 11 winners and a 29% average return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Enter long gold now as it breaks out while bonds make new lows. — Explicitly calls a renewed long-gold entry based on a breakout and weak bonds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | TLT | @gnoble79 | -0.80 | Long gold and short TLT. — Explicit forward pair trade favors gold against long-duration Treasuries. | +1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | TLT | @gnoble79 | -0.80 | Long gold and short TLT. — Explicit forward pair trade favors gold against long-duration Treasuries. | +1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | GDX | @gnoble79 | +0.75 | Predicts GDX will substantially outperform Berkshire over the coming years. | -3.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.