Author
@gnoble79 gnoble79
grade Ax.com/gnoble79 ↗
Forensic fundamental short-seller waging a valuation war on the Musk/AI bubble
Posts original, valuation-driven bear theses on hype names (
trader score
+0.93
hit rate
55%
mean α
+1.14%
signals 14d
41
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +1.14% mean alpha, trader score +0.93. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +3.4% since posting (mean over 22 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | IREN | @gnoble79 | -0.85 | Fade the bullish commentator and use IREN as a short idea. — Explicitly identifies IREN as a short idea obtained by fading another commentator. | -18.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Recaps an unnamed completed short against another person's long position. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.70 | States OPEN has fallen about 80% from $10 while mocking a prior bullish commentator. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Reports an existing profitable short from $8 but omits the instrument. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.55 | Mocking rhetorical question conveys a bearish stance toward OPEN. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.65 | Mocking commentary expresses strong bearish sentiment toward OPEN. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.50 | Mocks OPEN's characterization of itself as a high-alpha company. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.40 | Hostile comment about an OPEN insider conveys negative sentiment but little financial analysis. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.80 | Reports a 75% return already earned on an OPEN short position. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.85 | Recaps a year-old sell call on OPEN at $8 and cites subsequent long/short performance. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | OOEN | @gnoble79 | -0.90 | Discloses having shorted the named stock at 8 while expressing extreme bearishness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.90 | Discloses having shorted the named stock at 8 while expressing extreme bearishness. | -0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @gnoble79 | · | Frames high market dispersion as favorable for simultaneous long and short opportunities. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @gnoble79 | · | The author criticizes housing-bubble investment behavior and reliance on repeated Fed bailouts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | OPEN | @gnoble79 | -0.70 | The author closes a profitable ABTC short after a 93.4% decline and recaps continuing OPEN and BETR shorts. | -6.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.