Author

@greg_ip greg_ip

WSJ chief economics commentator reconciling macro data with rigorous, quantified frameworks

Writes original macro-economic analysis and commentary, deco

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
35

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Uses the 2005 tariff precedent to explain how trade pressure could force yuan appreciation.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Proposes a China tariff calibrated to yuan undervaluation as a mechanism to force revaluation.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Argues China's leadership will resist economic rebalancing and asks how revaluation can be forced.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Cites Goldman data showing pervasive product-price discounts in China versus the rest of the world.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Contrasts competing explanations for China's trade surplus and the yuan's role in driving it.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Reports a model-based estimate that the yuan is 35% undervalued.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Advocates a Plaza Accord-style yuan revaluation backed by tariff threats to address China's surplus.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Says Warsh's lack of a near-term rate signal should not be interpreted as forward guidance.·
2026-08-28·@greg_ip·Infers a hawkish Fed bias and tighter near-term policy from Warsh's speech and yield-curve reaction.·
2026-08-27·@greg_ip·Questions whether excess pandemic stimulus's inflation cost was offset by superior U.S. growth.·
2026-08-27·@greg_ip·Argues other leading economies share Canada's underperformance while the U.S. is the exception.·
2026-08-26·@greg_ip·Reframes relative growth as broad global lag versus exceptional U.S. leadership.·
2026-08-26·@greg_ip·Forecasts China tariffs will persist because they reflect bipartisan policy consensus.·
2026-08-26·@greg_ip·Uses prior tariff negotiations as a template for a future Democratic administration.·
2026-08-26·@greg_ip·Basis-trade fragility is framed as a system-wide externality rather than a participant cost.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.