Author
@greg_ip greg_ip
grade Ax.com/greg_ip ↗
WSJ chief economics commentator reconciling macro data with rigorous, quantified frameworks
Writes original macro-economic analysis and commentary, deco
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
35
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Uses the 2005 tariff precedent to explain how trade pressure could force yuan appreciation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Proposes a China tariff calibrated to yuan undervaluation as a mechanism to force revaluation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Argues China's leadership will resist economic rebalancing and asks how revaluation can be forced. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Cites Goldman data showing pervasive product-price discounts in China versus the rest of the world. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Contrasts competing explanations for China's trade surplus and the yuan's role in driving it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Reports a model-based estimate that the yuan is 35% undervalued. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Advocates a Plaza Accord-style yuan revaluation backed by tariff threats to address China's surplus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Says Warsh's lack of a near-term rate signal should not be interpreted as forward guidance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @greg_ip | · | Infers a hawkish Fed bias and tighter near-term policy from Warsh's speech and yield-curve reaction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @greg_ip | · | Questions whether excess pandemic stimulus's inflation cost was offset by superior U.S. growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @greg_ip | · | Argues other leading economies share Canada's underperformance while the U.S. is the exception. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @greg_ip | · | Reframes relative growth as broad global lag versus exceptional U.S. leadership. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @greg_ip | · | Forecasts China tariffs will persist because they reflect bipartisan policy consensus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @greg_ip | · | Uses prior tariff negotiations as a template for a future Democratic administration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @greg_ip | · | Basis-trade fragility is framed as a system-wide externality rather than a participant cost. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.