Author · brief 2026-06-22

@HatedMoats HatedMoats

Contrarian quality-compounder who fights consensus on GOOGL, GLP-1s, and hated SaaS

Posts conviction-driven fundamental theses, portfolio weight

trader score
-0.39
hit rate
45%
mean α
-0.33%
signals 14d
83

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.33% mean alpha, trader score -0.39. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.2% since posting (mean over 74 mentions with price data).

Adds NOW while warning AI pressures SaaS multiples

HatedMoats is most actively trading NOW, repeatedly adding and laying out staged dip-buy levels while still acknowledging broader SaaS pressure from AI. The distinctive read is barbell-like: own selected software and AI infrastructure winners, but avoid or question exposed SaaS, crypto, SNAP, and speculative insider-liquidity vehicles. Late in the window, disclosed pain in NVO, ADBE, and NOW holdings while continuing to frame NOW as a buy-lower position.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
NOW accumulation versus SaaS AI pressure
mixedintensifying22 signals
⚠ 50% of theme signals are ADBE — flag pump risk
GLP-1 competition and NVO stock frustration
mixedintensifying15 signals
⚠ 67% of theme signals are NVO — flag pump risk
AI semiconductor memory and infrastructure winners
bullNEW5 signals
⚠ 40% of theme signals are SNDK — flag pump risk
Mega-cap platform valuation preferences
bullintensifying5 signals
⚠ 60% of theme signals are META — flag pump risk
Speculative assets and product-story skepticism
bearfading15 signals
⚠ 80% of theme signals are SPCX — flag pump risk
Direction this week

The author added to NOW multiple times and gave explicit lower buy levels, making NOW the clearest active conviction trade. Bearish pressure is concentrated in ADBE/SaaS AI disruption, SPCX insider-liquidity skepticism, BTC valuation, and SNAP product-story doubts. Position disclosures show pain in NVO, ADBE, and NOW, but no stated exit; concentration is highest in NOW and NVO-related signals.

Position disclosures3skin in the game
ADBE Disclosed ADBE holding as painful with no forward trade stated. unclear
NVO Disclosed NVO holding as painful with no forward trade stated. unclear
NOW Disclosed NOW holding alongside other painful positions with no exit stated. held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
SPCE rally reflects mistaken SpaceX or SPCX proxy buying rather than direct economic exposure, making the move fundament
bearHIGH16 co-supporters
Mastercard has become unusually cheap on FCF and valuation multiples, creating a rare entry point for a quality compound
bullHIGH11 co-supporters
BBBY’s history is being used as negative precedent for Ryan Cohen or GME-related pump-and-dump behavior and failed squee
bearHIGH4 co-supporters
Trump ownership, public support and policy adjacency are attracting flows into Dell as a political-attention trade.
bullHIGH3 co-supporters
Novo’s oral Wegovy and other rivals are outpacing Foundayo, pressuring Lilly’s oral obesity narrative.
bearHIGH6 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03·@HatedMoats·Says memory stock bull case weakened by long-term supply agreement concerns.·
2026-07-02ADBE@HatedMoats-0.18Author says ADBE sacrifice is paying off, implying positive view while peers fall.
2026-07-02NVO@HatedMoats+0.18Author reacts to NVO near 50 with chart, but stance is unclear.
2026-07-02SIVE@HatedMoats+0.24Asks if holders are bagholders, implying negative stance on SIVE.·
2026-07-01NVO@HatedMoats-0.24Author discloses being up on an NVO position.+3.4%
2026-07-01META@HatedMoats-0.24Says bought to close covered calls and had nice start of month.-4.9%
2026-07-01CCJ@HatedMoats-0.12Says bought to close covered calls and had nice start of month.-0.9%
2026-07-01GOOGL@HatedMoats-0.12Says bought to close covered calls and had nice start of month.-0.4%
2026-07-01MSFT@HatedMoats-0.27Regrets not buying deep ITM MSFT calls at $350 and asks if it will revisit 350s.+1.6%
2026-07-01NOW@HatedMoats-0.18Positive reaction to NOW move, with chart context only.+0.5%
2026-07-01META@HatedMoats-0.42Enthusiastic statement that Zuck always delivers for META.-4.9%
2026-07-01META@HatedMoats-0.33Reports Meta may build cloud business selling excess AI compute; author calls it strategically positive.-4.9%
2026-07-01AMZN@HatedMoats-0.00Reports Meta may build cloud business selling excess AI compute; author calls it strategically positive.+0.4%
2026-07-01META@HatedMoats-0.45New META deep ITM December 2028 $350 call position — Discloses new META position via deep ITM call with strike, expiry, premium, and breakeven logic.-4.9%
2026-07-01MSFT@HatedMoats-0.12New META deep ITM December 2028 $350 call position — Discloses new META position via deep ITM call with strike, expiry, premium, and breakeven logic.+1.6%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.