Author · brief 2026-06-22

@hughesanalytics hughesanalytics

Quant trader narrating a self-built ML long/short basket with AI-hardware depth

Runs and live-narrates an ML-driven multi-sector long/short

trader score
-0.29
hit rate
50%
mean α
-0.15%
signals 14d
38

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.15% mean alpha, trader score -0.29. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.0% since posting (mean over 19 mentions with price data).

ADBE short conviction dominates alongside bearish ES_F levels

This author is mainly trading downside: ADBE is framed as a top short/exit candidate, while ES_F work is tactical around resistance, support clusters, and worsening downside below key averages. The distinctive read is systematic/technical rather than fundamental, using Compact L/S short selection and chart clusters to reinforce structural downtrend calls. Late-window ADBE tone remains bearish, though one signal notes the name fell from first to sixth on the short list and may be removed.

Themes3analyst read · 2026-06-22
ADBE structural downtrend short thesis
bearintensifying5 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are ADBE — flag pump risk
ES_F resistance clusters and downside bias
mixedconsistent10 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are ES_F — flag pump risk
Compact L/S model positioning discipline
bearintensifying5 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are ADBE — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Bearish concentration sits in ADBE and ES_F, with the only explicit directional call being an ADBE exit. ADBE is held as a top short, but later short-list ranking fell from first to sixth and may be removed. ES_F commentary stays tactical and level-driven, with resistance clusters and worsening downside below averages dominating the week.

Position disclosures1skin in the game
ADBE ADBE remains a top short position until price action stops falling. held
Best hypotheses3their highest-scoring claims in our index
ES is vulnerable after overbought highs, failed breakouts, and topping patterns near the upper range.
bearHIGH5 co-supporters
High-volume institutional selling and gap-fade behavior suggest buyers may be losing short-term control.
bearMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Failure of near-term support opens downside toward 7530, 7525, 7391, or the 7330-7380 zone.
bearMEDIUM4 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02ES_F@hughesanalytics-0.15ES futures chart notes mean reversion back to average.·
2026-07-02·@hughesanalytics·Selling GPU compute is framed as plan B and becoming crowded.·
2026-07-02ES_F@hughesanalytics+0.00ES futures support at 7491 with mixed chart signals over average.·
2026-07-01·@hughesanalytics·Model balance shifted to 66 long vs 44 short and T+1 prediction is higher.·
2026-07-01·@hughesanalytics·MAS score is ticking up but only slightly above average.·
2026-07-01META@hughesanalytics+0.00Anomalies post lists tickers but stance requires chart context.-4.9%
2026-07-01AMAT@hughesanalytics+0.00Anomalies post lists tickers but stance requires chart context.-7.4%
2026-07-01WMT@hughesanalytics+0.00Anomalies post lists tickers but stance requires chart context.+2.8%
2026-07-01ADBE@hughesanalytics+0.15ADBE now 10th on short list, implying less emphasis on shorting Adobe.+4.1%
2026-06-30ES_F@hughesanalytics+0.00Provides ES_F resistance at 7560 and support at 7492.·
2026-06-30ES_F@hughesanalytics-0.65Negative S&P 100 bias; fading some ES_F — States negative S&P 100 directional bias and says fading some ES_F.·
2026-06-30·@hughesanalytics·Says overall anomaly score is falling and stocks returning to typical patterns.·
2026-06-30·@hughesanalytics·Mentions long/short overall positioning with chart.·
2026-06-30KLAC@hughesanalytics+0.00Flags KLAC as an anomaly again with chart.-21.9%
2026-06-30VIX@hughesanalytics+0.00Explains anomaly score interpretation by analogy to VIX; lower score implies positive index bias.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.