@insane_analyst insane_analyst
Engineer-trader who reasons from semiconductor physics and datasheets to trades
Deep bottom-up semiconductor/photonics analysis paired with
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +1.05% mean alpha, trader score +1.22. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.4% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).
The author is leaning into AAOI, WOLF, and ENPH while disclosing long exposure around AEHR and likely AAOI. Their distinctive read ties coherent-lite transceivers, InP epiwafer supply, and possible WSE-scale GPT serving demand into an AI infrastructure trade. Bearishness is focused on NVTS within the same power/SiC discussion, while LRCX is only a regretful post-hoc recap rather than a fresh call.
Conviction is concentrated in AAOI-linked optical/transceiver exposure and a small basket of power names, with bullish adds or re-entry language for WOLF, AAOI, and ENPH. The author also discloses large AEHR exposure but redirects the opportunity toward AAOI, creating concentration and pump-risk concerns around AAOI. Bearish or skeptical tone is limited to NVTS, while AMD and LRCX are more research or recap than fresh trade calls.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | · | @insane_analyst | · | Says VCSEL CPO is gaining momentum, but names no ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | QCOM | @insane_analyst | -0.35 | Negative comment on Qualcomm and Intel corporate cultures. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | INTC | @insane_analyst | -0.35 | Negative comment on Qualcomm and Intel corporate cultures. | -13.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | ON | @insane_analyst | -0.65 | Mocks ON Semiconductor's Synaptics deal as stupid and suggests changing ticker to OFF. | +0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | AMAT | @insane_analyst | -0.25 | Criticizes Applied Materials' CPO power figure as inaccurate. | -9.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | QCOM | @insane_analyst | -0.55 | Dismisses LPDDR plus Hexagon cores as old, failed technology and not new. | -14.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | LITE | @insane_analyst | +0.65 | Argues Lumentum has very high gross margins in CPO lasers and 200G EML; own memory and optics. | -15.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @insane_analyst | · | Mentions interesting chart and possible hit at 50, but ticker context missing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | CBRS | @insane_analyst | -0.45 | Calls Cerebras transcript alleged dumpster fire before reading it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @insane_analyst | · | Reports a realized daily loss of $300K and 12%, not a forward call. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @insane_analyst | · | Says wafer yield is 100% but packaging yield is extremely bad, no ticker specified. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | CBRS | @insane_analyst | -0.55 | Bearish on CBRS as bubble stock with insider unlock and alleged poor packaging yield. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-21 | SMTC | @insane_analyst | +0.70 | Explicit bullish phrase 'to the moon' on SMTC. | -14.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-21 | LITE | @insane_analyst | +0.20 | Discloses remaining 5000 INTC shares and 1000 LITE shares; regrets prior sale. | -14.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-21 | INTC | @insane_analyst | +0.50 | Discloses remaining 5000 INTC shares and 1000 LITE shares; regrets prior sale. | -10.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.